Egypt Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report Q1 2008

Egypt's pharmaceutical market is fairly small in global terms, but should experience strong growth over the next five years. Valued at an estimated 1.05bn in 2007, the market should expand to US$1.69bn by 2012 - representing a CAGR of almost 10%. The small market size is a result of low per capita drug expenditure of around US$14 per annum and strict government price controls.

The government seems to be aware of the current limitations of its regulatory environment and has been moving to improve laws. This led PhRMA to recommend a downgrading to 'Watch List' status from 'Priority Watch List' status for 2007. However, the USTR chose to stick to the status quo and the country remained on the USTR's Special 301 Priority Watch list for countries with significant intellectual property (IP) failings. Despite the enactment of a TRIPS compliant IP regime in 2005, enforcement remains a key concern due to a lack of resources and questionable political will. In a recent positive move, authorities signalled that they plan to end the requirement for imported drugs to undergo local bioequivalency testing if they have received approval in the US or Europe. This decision should serve to reduce the approval delays that have been a feature of the Egyptian drug market.

Local manufacturing is a high volume, low value business. Domestic drugmakers supply around 93% of the market in volume terms, but just 52% in value terms. Due to strict price controls that result in some of the lowest drug prices in the region, imports of high margin patented drugs are most attractive, which accounts for the high size of the patented drug.

Without the substantial oil reserves of the Gulf states, Egypt has attempted to create an affordable healthcare system through drug price controls. This has served to further deter foreign investment from the drug market, leaving domestic industry focused on basic medicines. Egypt has entered into a number of free trade agreements (FTAs) and is in the process of negotiating others. However, the most important negotiations - with the US - remain suspended following concerns over the transparency of the 2005 presidential election. Meanwhile, Egypt is not part of the Gulf Co-operation Council (GCC) - arguably the region's most influential body.

For Q108, BMI has overhauled its methodology for the business environment ratings system. The new ratings see Egypt slip down the rankings to 12th position out of 14 Middle East and Africa (MEA) markets surveyed - ahead of only Nigeria and Zimbabwe. Despite strong growth forecast and a large population, low per capita drug expenditure and an unfavourable regulatory environment serve to make the Egyptian market one of the region's least attractive.