Jordan Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Report Q2 2008

Jordan's pharmaceutical market is expected to grow at 10% year-on-year (y-o-y) over the forecast period (2008-2012). It should reach around US$540mn by 2012, up from an estimated US$336mn in 2007.

Strong population growth, which should exceed 2.8% y-o-y, will drive market expansion, as will strong GDP growth, which is expected to come in at around 5% in real terms for the forecast period.

Over-the-counter (OTC) drug market growth should beat that of the prescription drug market due to strict dispensing regulations surrounding prescription drugs, which serve to encourage self medication.

However, in value terms, this trend should be offset to some extent by rising demand for more expensive patented drugs as more citizens look for-high tech treatments in a market that was traditionally dominated by basic medications.

In BMI's updated Business Environment Rankings, Jordan has moved up to equal sixth position, from equal eighth in the previous quarter. The improved position is largely a result of a positive reassessment of the size of the pharmaceutical market. Jordan already posted a strong score in the market risks category due to its strong regulatory framework. This now seems to be having the more tangible effect of boosting the market by reducing the prevalence of counterfeit drugs, which have made less of a dent in the legitimate drug market in recent years.

Jordan's pharmaceutical industry is now dominated by Hikma. In December 2007, the multinational generic drugmaker cemented its position as Jordan's largest pharmaceutical company with the acquisition of Arab Pharmaceutical Manufacturing (APM) - which was third in the country by sales. The combination is likely to worry Dar Al Dawa, which has the second-largest share of Jordan's market - now less than half of Hikma's market share. However, Jordan's small market, and growing regional ties through the Arab world mean domestic players have always looked for revenues across the Middle East.

Despite Jordan not having Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) membership, its friendly relations with the US and Middle Eastern neighbours have served to make it an attractive export base. Asian generics makers in particular seem to be taking advantage of Jordan as a channel into the Arab world. One of Bangladesh's top five pharmaceutical exporters, Beximco Pharmaceuticals began shipments to Jordan in October 2007.