Mexico Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Report Q2 2008

BMI has upgraded its five-year value-growth forecast for the Mexican pharmaceutical market for 2007 - 2012 from an average rate of 5.5% per annum to 6.6%. Increased government spending and enabling legislation aimed to achieve earlier commitments to eliminate copy drugs or similares by forcing producers to present comprehensive efficacy and safety data is expected to push up the value of the legitimate generics market. BMI expects an 8.7% US dollar growth in the total market of consumer prices in 2008, with a total value of US$14.8bn, putting per capita consumption at US$123.2mn.

Also, in this quarter BMI introduces coverage of the Mexican medical device market, another sector posed for strong growth on the back of improved healthcare coverage. Mexico's medical device market is the second largest in Latin America after Brazil, and BMI forecasts it will outpace pharmaceutical market growth to reach US$3.38bn by 2012. Local market growth and the proximity to the US market will be the major drivers of growth.

The optimistic pharmaceutical and medical-device market forecasts are driven in large part by President Felipe Caldern's campaign to bring about universal healthcare system and indications of some tangible, if still early results entering his second full year as president. The current programme aims to expand insurance coverage through rapid expansion of the Seguro Popular health scheme launched by his predecessor and putting the wider social-security system in order. At the same time, regulatory changes are designed to make the pharmaceutical market more competitive to meet the biggest challenge in medicines provision eliminate older, in many cases poor quality copy drugs or similares while simultaneously making the overall market more transparent and competitive in order to minimise overall price rises caused by the eradication of cheap similares.

The government added some 2.2mn families to the rolls of the Seguro Popular scheme in 2007, although this figure is disputed by the opposition. A 17% increase in overall federal health spending and a 45% increase in Seguro Popular expenditure budgeted for 2008 was touted by the president in a January speech. On the regulatory front, the government underlined its commitment under a 2005 law to eliminate most copy drugs by early 2010, and from late February, it began updating market authorisation dossiers requiring proof of safety and efficacy studies. The threat to domestic makers of similares was underlined by a major publicity campaign and demonstrations in front of the offices of medicines regulator COFEPRIS, organised by the owner of Farmacias Similares, the country's largest retailer of these lowcost drugs, alleging that the move will leave millions without access to cheap medicines.

Such resistance is expected. As important as it is for COFEPRIS to see through re-registration, perhaps the most vital task is to create room for modern generics manufacturers and competitive retailers to compete. Examples of important initiatives include Walmart-owned Walmex's launch of a cheap legitimate generics line in 2007 to compete driving down the cost of medicines. Attracting generics maker and helping local players overcome the pain of upgrading production standards will be the key steps.