Nigeria Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Report Q3 2009

Publication Date	June 2009
Publisher	Business Monitor
Product Type	Report
Pages	90
ISBN Number	1748-2062
Product Code	BMI02368

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Summary

In BMI's Q309 update of the Pharmaceutical Business Environment Rankings for the Middle East and Africa (MEA) region, Nigeria is once again ranked second-last out of the 17 key regional markets, above only Zimbabwe. Globally, Nigeria is also ranked second-last of the 71 pharmaceutical markets surveyed by BMI, due to low levels of per capita spending on drugs, a moderate compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 1.89% in US dollar terms through to 2013, and the rampant counterfeiting of medicines.

Nevertheless, by 2013, BMI forecasts that the total Nigerian pharmaceutical market at consumer prices will increase to US$695mn, from an estimated US$633mn in 2008 illustrating the existence of commercial opportunities for those drugmakers willing to be exposed to higher levels of risk.

In fact, the government has taken a decisive stance against counterfeiters in recent years, increasing both enforcement and prosecution activities against those involved in illegal trade of medicines. In March 2009, the recently-founded Ghanaian mobile technology firm mPedigree launched its anti-counterfeit medicine strategy across its home country, with plans to target the Nigerian anti-malarial and antibiotic drug market in a similar way. Such a cross-border approach will have a positive effect on the operating environment for foreign drugmakers.

However, the pharmaceutical and the wider healthcare landscape clearly have a long way to go before being considered fully fair and transparent. While Nigeria's reimbursement process has been improving following the launch of the national health insurance scheme (NHIS) in 2005, poor or inappropriate allocation of funds is having a knock-on effect on the country's healthcare policy. Most recently, in March 2009, a licence to operate in the country held by the domestic subsidiary of US based drugmaker Xechem International was revoked by the authorities. The decision came as a result of a misappropriation of funds that led to severe sickle cell anaemia drug shortages, and further investigations surrounding financial mismanagement are underway.

In terms of the wider operating environment, Nigeria's government is facing substantially lower oil revenues in 2009. Consequently, the authorities will push through a large fiscal deficit, which we believe will be financed via the excess crude account. Meanwhile, growth is forecast to fall below 4.0% for the first time since 2000, with risks to the downside, which will have further implications for the uptake of the NHIS as well as inflows of foreign direct investment (FDI). Similarly, the sudden and sharp devaluation of the naira will negatively impact the country's ability to source pharmaceutical imports, especially as we believe the exchange rate has further to fall in the medium term, despite the efforts of the central bank to control banks' ability to access foreign currency.

Content

Executive Summary
SWOT Analysis
Nigeria Pharmaceuticals And Healthcare Industry SWOT
Nigeria Political SWOT
Nigeria Economic SWOT
Nigeria Business Environment SWOT
Pharmaceutical Business Environment Ratings
Limits To Potential Returns
Risks To Realisation Of Returns
Nigeria - Market Summary
Regulatory Regime
Import Regime
Recent Regulatory Developments
Intellectual Property Regime
Counterfeit Drugs
Recent Developments in Regards to Counterfeit Drugs
Pricing And Reimbursement Regime
Industry Developments
Epidemiology
Maternal and Child Health
Communicable Diseases
HIV/AIDS
Recent Infectious Diseases Developments
Healthcare Sector
Healthcare Financing
Healthcare Provision
Recent Healthcare Sector Developments
Healthcare Reforms
Health Insurance
Traditional African Medicine
Domestic Pharmaceutical Sector
Recent Domestic Company Developments
Foreign Pharmaceutical Sector
National Drug Policy
Research and Development
Medical Devices
Recent Developments In The Medical Devices Market
Industry Forecast Scenario
Overall Market Forecasts
Key Growth Factors - Industry
Key Growth Factors - Macroeconomic
Prescription Drug Market Forecast
Patented Drug Market Forecast
Generic Drug Market Forecast
OTC Drug Market Forecast
Other Healthcare Data Forecasts
Key Risks To BMI's Forecasts
Competitive Landscape
Company Monitor
Multinational Company Profiles
Pfizer
Novartis
Sanofi-Aventis
GlaxoSmithKline (GSK)
Merck & Co
Indigenous Producers
Nigeria-German Chemicals PLC (NGC)
Emzor
Fidson Healthcare
Archy
Neros Pharmaceuticals
Drugfield Pharmaceuticals Limited
Neimeth
BMI Forecast Modelling
How We Generate Our Pharmaceutical Industry Forecasts
Country Snapshot: Nigeria Demographic Data
Section 1: Population
Section 2: Education And Healthcare
Section 3: Labour Market And Spending Power
Pharmaceutical Business Environment Ratings Methodology
Ratings Overview
Weighting
Sources
List of Tables
- Table: Middle East And Africa (MEA) - Regional Pharmaceutical Business Environment Ratings for Q309
- Table: Leading Causes Of Death In Africa, 2002
- Table: Nigeria Free Zones: Key Incentives
- Table: Nigeria - Drug Market Expenditure Indicators, Historical Data and Forecasts
- Table: Nigeria - Health Expenditure Indicators, Historical Data and Forecasts
- Table: Nigeria - Economic Activity, 2006 - 2013
- Table: Nigeria's Prescription Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data and Forecasts (US$mn unless otherwise stated)
- Table: Nigeria - Patented Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data and Forecasts, 2003-2013
- Table: Nigeria - Generic Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data and Forecasts, 2003-2013
- Table: Nigeria - OTC Market Data Indicators, Historical Data and Forecasts (NGNmn unless otherwise stated)
- Table: Nigeria - Pharmaceutical Trade Indicators, Historical Data and Forecasts (US$mn), 2003-2013
- Table: Nigeria - Other Health Indicators, Historical Data and Forecasts
- Table: Demographic Indicators, 2005-2030
- Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown, 2005-2030
- Table: Education, 2002-2005
- Table: Vital Statistics, 2005-2030
- Table: Consumer Expenditure, 2000-2012 (US$)
- Table: Pharmaceutical Business Environment Indicators
- Table: Weighting Of Components

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Product features / use

Level	General Industry Strategies
Data	Detailed Market Forecasts
Profiles	Profiles of Key Companies
Features	Contains SWOT Analysis
Extra Info	Consumer Trends Highlighted