Pakistan Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Report Q3 2009

Publication Date	June 2009
Publisher	Business Monitor
Product Type	Report
Pages	74
ISBN Number	1748-2089
Product Code	BMI03762

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Summary

Pakistan's pharmaceutical expenditure was valued at PKR127bn (US$2bn) in 2008. Between 2009 and 2013, BMI forecasts that the market should grow at a nominal CAGR of 12.7% in local currency to reach PKR230bn (US$3bn) in 2013, with population growth being a major driver. However, with inflation expected to average 9.9% over the forecast period, drug market growth is likely to be negative in real terms. Our forecast has been downgraded for Q309 in light of the worsening global economic situation.

We expect both prescription and OTC markets to be hit in Pakistan, since the majority of health expenditure continues to be financed out of pocket, leaving market growth vulnerable to deteriorating economic conditions.

BMI's updated Business Environment Ratings for Q309 highlights the challenges faced by pharmaceutical companies operating in Pakistan. The country is ranked 14th out of 15 markets assessed in the Asia Pacific region, with only Vietnam considered less attractive. The country's unstable political and economic situation pose significant risks to the operating environment, while the pharmaceutical regulatory situation, most notably patents, remain substandard.

Despite the challenges, Pakistan has a substantial pharmaceutical manufacturing industry, which is largely geared towards supplying the domestic market. According to the Pakistan Pharmaceutical Manufacturers Association (PPMA), domestic manufacturing supplies 70% of the country's demand for finished products, a figure that is supported by trade data from the UN Commodity Trade Statistics Database (Comtrade), which showed that imports only accounted for 20% of Pakistan's pharmaceutical consumption by value in 2007.

In March 2009, the president of the PPMA, Zahid Saeed, claimed that the local pharmaceutical industry spent PKR107bn (US$1.3bn) on manufacturing facilities, which he equated to a saving of about US$3bn in foreign exchange on the import of medicines. The government is largely supportive of pharmaceutical manufacturing; however, it has recently reduced protectionist import tariffs in a number of therapeutic areas - recognition that domestic manufacturing is restricted to low-tech, high-volume production.

Pakistan's health indicators are generally poor, particularly in rural areas, indicating that one of the major challenges for the government is to improve access to healthcare. Pharmaceutical expenditure remains largely funded out of pocket, meaning generics are popular and expensive treatments are unaffordable for many on low incomes. Infectious disease remains a problem, as does malnutrition. However, noncommunicable chronic diseases such as diabetes and cancer are on the rise, especially in cities.

Content

Executive Summary
SWOT Analysis
Pakistan Pharmaceutical Industry SWOT
Pakistan Political SWOT
Pakistan Economic SWOT
Pakistan Business Environment SWOT
Pharmaceutical Business Environment Ratings
Business Environment Ranking
Limits Of Potential Returns
Risks To Realisation Of Returns
Market Summary
Regulatory Regime
Intellectual Property Regime
Shortcomings Of The Intellectual Property Environment
Counterfeit Drugs
Pricing and Reimbursement Regime
Recent Pricing and Reimbursement Developments
Industry Trends And Developments
Epidemiology
Healthcare System
Pharmaceutical Sector
Traditional Medicine
Research and Development
Retail Sector
International Co-operation
Medical Devices
Industry Forecast Scenario
Overall Market Forecast
Key Growth Factors - Industry
Key Growth Factors - Macroeconomic
Prescription Market Forecasts
OTC Market Forecast
Patented Product Market Forecast
Generic Drug Market Forecast
Export/Import Forecasts
Other Healthcare Data Forecasts
Key Risks To BMI's Forecast Scenario
Competitive Landscape
Company Profiles
Leading Multinational Manufacturers
GlaxoSmithKline
Pfizer
Abbott Laboratories
Novartis
Sanofi-Aventis
Merck & Co
Wyeth
Domestic Manufacturers
Hilton Pharma
Efroze Chemical Industries
Ferozsons Laboratories
Getz Pharma
Pacific Pharmaceuticals
Country Snapshot: Pakistan Demographic Data
Section 1: Population
Section 2: Education and Healthcare
Section 3: Labour Market And Spending Power
BMI Forecast Modelling
How We Generate Our Pharmaceutical Industry Forecasts
Pharmaceutical Business Environment Ratings Methodology
Ratings Overview
Weighting
Sources
List of Tables
- Table: Asia Pacific Pharmaceutical Business Environment Ratings For Q309
- Table: Healthcare And Pharmaceutical Companies That Are Members Of The American Business Council Of Pakistan
- Table: Pakistan - Key Healthcare Statistics, 2007 ('000 people, unless otherwise stated)
- Table: Pakistan - Drug Expenditure Indicators, 2003-2013
- Table: Pakistan - Health Expenditure Indicators, 2003-2013
- Table: Pakistan - Economic Activity, 2006 - 2013
- Table: Pakistan - Prescription Market Indicators, 2003-2013 (PKRmn unless otherwise stated)
- Table: Pakistan - OTC Drugs Market Indicators, 2003-2013 (PKRmn unless otherwise stated)
- Table: Pakistan - Patented Drugs Market Indicators, 2003-2013
- Table: Pakistan - Generic Drugs Market Indicators, 2003-2013
- Table: Pakistan - Pharmaceutical Trade Indicators, 2003-2013 (US$mn)
- Table: Pakistan - Other Healthcare Indicators, 2003-2013 (per '000 population, unless otherwise stated)
- Table: Pakistan's Pharmaceutical Market In Q406
- Table: Demographic Indicators, 2005-2030
- Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown, 2005-2030
- Table: Education, 2002-2005
- Table: Vital Statistics, 2005-2030
- Table: Employment Indicators, 2001-2006
- Table: Consumer Expenditure, 2000-2012 (US$)
- Table: Average Annual Manufacturing Wages, 2000-2012
- Table: Pharmaceutical Business Environment Indicators
- Table: Weighting Of Components

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Product features / use

Level	General Industry Strategies
Data	Detailed Market Forecasts
Profiles	Profiles of Key Companies
Features	Contains SWOT Analysis
Extra Info	Consumer Trends Highlighted