Serbia Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Report Q2 2009

Publication Date	April 2009
Publisher	Business Monitor
Product Type	Report
Pages	87
ISBN Number	not applicable
Product Code	BMI03688

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Summary

In the BMI Business Environment Rating matrix for Q209, Serbia is found in a much improved 14th position, out of the 20 key markets surveyed in the Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) region. The value of the Serbian pharmaceutical market was estimated at US$1.17bn in 2008, with the figure likely to top US$1.52bn by the end of 2013, increasing by a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 8.36% in local currency terms. Generics represent almost a third of the market by value, with their further development to be stimulated by low incomes, strong domestic industry, and the lack of state financing for widerranging reimbursement coverage. While small by global standards, the key draws of the Serbian market include its advantageous geographical position, a largely untapped pharmaceutical market, and the low cost of skilled labour. The recent Good Manufacturing Practice (GMP) accredition of Zdravlje Actavis' local production facilities, as well as Hemofarm's new status as the first Serbian company to export medicines to the US, illustrates the pace of the market development. However, Serbia will continue to be a challenging market for foreign investors because of the prevalence of corruption, a large-scale blackmarket economy, and the poor state of the country's infrastructure.

Nevertheless, Serbia has actively been creating a business-friendly environment and a modern market economy, which has led to a spate of foreign direct investment (FDI) in the country's pharmaceutical industry. An 80% stake in Galenika and a 70% stake in the Mataruska and Bogutovacka spa resorts is presently up for sale. The government has passed several important laws aimed at developing a more favourable environment for foreign investments, and at harmonising Serbian legislation with that of the European Union (EU) and its economic policies. Core measures include legislation regulating companies, bankruptcy procedures, financial markets, securities, and transfer of capital. The tax regime for foreign investors is an additional stimulus. While net FDI inflows are relatively low in comparison to the rest of the region, we anticipate that these will pick up as: the government commits to stimulating foreign investments; further adherence towards EU norms occurs; and the privatisation process picks up speed.

In the meantime, despite the positive developments just mentioned, Serbian pharmaceutical manufacturers are facing challenging times, as indicated by depreciation of local tender and an 8.9% contraction in the country's industrial output (recorded in December 2008 by the National Statistics Office). The 'manufacturing' component of output, which comprises some 75.8% of the total, fell by 9.4% year-on-year (y-o-y). We are projecting it to average -6% in 2009, based on our negative outlook for Serbia's key trade partners, namely the eurozone and the members of the Central European Free Trade Agreement (CEFTA) - which accounted for 33% of total Serbian exports in January-November 2008.

Lastly, falling soft commodity and energy prices globally will also have a negative impact on both Serbian industrial production volumes and indices over the forecast period, with BMI forecasting a 3.4% GDP growth in 2009, down from the 6.3% predicted previously.

Content

Executive Summary
Serbia Pharmaceuticals And Healthcare Industry SWOT
Serbia Political SWOT
Serbia Economic SWOT
Serbia Business Environment SWOT
Pharmaceutical Business Environment Ratings
Serbia - Market Summary
Regulatory Regime
Intellectual Property Environment
IP Disputes
Pricing Regime
Reimbursement Regime
Price Cuts
Price Rises
Industry Trends and Developments
Epidemiology
Healthcare Sector
Healthcare Insurance
Healthcare Reform
Medical Tourism
Pharmaceutical Sector
Domestic Pharmaceutical Industry
Domestic Company Activity
Foreign Pharmaceutical Industry
Foreign Company Activity
Stada Sales vs Generic Market Growth
Pharmaceutical Wholesale And Retail
Clinical Trials
Medical Devices
Medical Device Classification In Serbia
Industry Forecast Scenario
Overall Market Forecast
Key Growth Factors - Industry
Key Growth Factors - Macroeconomic
Prescription Market
Patented Market Forecast
Generics Market Forecast
OTC Market Forecast
Export/Import Forecasts
Medical Devices Forecasts
Other Healthcare Data Forecasts
Key Risks to BMI's Forecast Scenario
Competitive Landscape
Company Monitor
Multinational Company Profiles
Pfizer
GlaxoSmithKline
Novartis
Sanofi-Aventis
Merck & Co
Indigenous Company Profiles
Hemofarm (Stada)
Galenika
Zdravlje Actavis
Jugoremedija
Country Snapshot: Serbia Demographic Data
Section 1: Population
Section 2: Education And Healthcare
Section 3: Labour Market And Spending Power
BMI Forecast Modelling
How We Generate Our Pharmaceutical Industry Forecasts
Pharmaceutical Business Environment Ratings Methodology
Ratings Overview
Weighting
Sources
List of Tables
- Table: Regional Pharma Business Environment Ratings
- Table Serbia - Examples of Reimbursed Medicines by Category
- Table: Top 10 Causes Of Death In Serbia And Montenegro
- Table Serbia - Major General And Specialised Hospitals
- Table: Cosmetic Surgery Costs
- Table: Proposed Members Of Serbia's Pharmaceutical Industry Association
- Table: Number Of Ongoing Clinical Trials In Serbia
- Table: Serbia --Drug Expenditure Indicators, Historical Data and Forecasts
- Table: Serbia - Health Expenditure Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts
- Table: Serbia - Economic Activity
- Table: Serbia - Prescription Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (RSDmn unless otherwise stated)
- Table: Serbia - Patented Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts
- Table: Serbia - Generics Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts
- Table Serbia - Sales Of Herbal Remedies 2007
- Table Serbia - Sales Of Homeopathic Remedies 2007
- Table: Serbia - OTC Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (RSDmn unless otherwise stated)
- Table: Serbia - Pharmaceutical Trade Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (US$mn unless otherwise stated)
- Table: Serbia - Medical Device Market, Historical Data and Forecasts (US$mn unless otherwise stated)
- Table: Serbia - Other Healthcare Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts
- Table: Companies Involved In The Serbian Pharmaceutical Industry
- Table: Serbia - Pharmaceutical Product Sales By Therapeutic Category (2007)
- Table Serbia - Defined Daily Dose (DDD) Per 1,000 Inhabitants
- Table: Demographic Indicators, 2005-2030
- Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown, 2005-2030
- Table: Education, 2000/01
- Table: Vital Statistics, 2005-2030
- Table: Employment Indicators, 2001-2006
- Table: Average Annual Manufacturing Wages, 2000-2012
- Table: Pharmaceutical Business Environment Indicators
- Table: Weighting Of Components