Singapore Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Report Q3 2009

Publication Date	June 2009
Publisher	Business Monitor
Product Type	Report
Pages	94
ISBN Number	not applicable
Product Code	BMI04009

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Summary

In BMI's Business Environment Rankings (BER) matrix for Q309, Singapore slipped from fourth to sixth position out of the 15 key countries in the Asia Pacific region, in line with worsening economic conditions and their impact on the pharmaceutical market growth and exports in the country. While Singapore offers a number of positives for pharmaceutical companies, including a 100% urban market, an ageing population and a predictable operating climate, its growth potential is limited, not least due to its small population. Specifically, the current economic climate (with BMI forecasting deep recession for 2009) is resulting in more people seeking to avoid payment for healthcare services. In April 2009, asiaone reported that the number of patients visiting free clinics operated by voluntary and welfare organisations in Singapore was rising.

Therefore BMI forecasts that over the coming five years, the Singaporean pharmaceutical market will grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of just 1.52% in local currency terms. Having been valued at SGD791mn (US$561mn) in 2008, in 2013, the market will reach SGD853mn (US$601mn) at consumer prices, as its value falls in the course of 2009 and 2010, only recording an increase in 2011 and subsequent years. While consumers in Singapore have an express preference for branded drugs, the proportion of generics as a percentage of the total market is expected to increase from 10% in 2008 to 11.8% in 2013, as the government continues to promote their usage within the public healthcare sphere.

At the same time, adverse economic conditions will stifle the growth of the over-the-counter (OTC) market, which is expected to stagnate through to 2013.

Falling consumer confidence has already led to a change of strategy by some drugmakers. In March 2009, UK-based pharmaceutical major GlaxoSmithKline (GSK) reduced the price of its cervical cancer vaccine Cervarix by nearly 30% in Singapore. It is expected that clinics will - in turn - lower the patient price they charge for injections (presently at around US$600). A 2008 survey published around the same time showed that most women were not getting vaccinated due to the high price of the treatment. In fact, according to the Obstetrical and Gynaecological Society of Singapore (OGSS), only 1% of women aged between 10 and 25 were vaccinated. However, a junior minister at the Singapore's Ministry of Foreign Affairs expressed concerns relating to the effectiveness of vaccinations against cervical cancer for teenagers, recommending caution regarding a national vaccination programme.

Nevertheless, some companies remain positive about Singapore's prospects. In March 2009, the largest healthcare distributor in Singapore, Zuellig Pharma, inaugurated its new US$40mn distribution facility, which will operate as the company's local distribution centre and a regional headquarters. The company will welcome the recently signed Sectoral Mutual Recognition Arrangement for Good Manufacturing Practice (GMP) Inspection of Manufacturers of Medicinal Products, which envisages the total removal of regulatory trade barriers between members of the Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN) bloc by the start of 2011.

Content

Executive Summary
SWOT Analysis
Singapore Pharmaceuticals And Healthcare Industry SWOT
Singapore Political SWOT
Singapore Economic SWOT
Singapore Business Environment SWOT
Pharmaceutical Business Environment Ratings
- Table: Asia Pacific - Regional Pharmaceutical Business Environment Ratings for Q309
Limits of Potential Returns
Risks to Realisation of Returns
Singapore - Market Summary
Regulatory Regime
Recent Regulatory Developments
Intellectual Property Issues
Trade Agreements
Pricing and Reimbursement
Industry Trends and Developments
Epidemiology
- Table: Principal Causes Of Death In Singapore, 2004-2006 (as % of total deaths)
Communicable Disease
Healthcare Sector
Singapore's Trajectory In Quality And Patient Safety
Healthcare Financing
Healthcare Insurance Developments
Healthcare Company Developments
Domestic Pharmaceutical Sector
Foreign Industry
Foreign Company Activities
Traditional Chinese Medicine
Supply Chain
Research and Development
Bioscience Sector
Recent Research and Development Activities
Clinical Trials
Recent Developments in Clinical Trials Industry
Medical Devices
- Table: Classification Of Medical Devices In Singapore
Recent Developments in the Medical Devices Industry
Industry Forecast Scenario
Overall Market Forecast
- Table: Singapore - Drug Expenditure Indicators, Historical Data and Forecasts
Key Growth Factors - Industry
- Table: Singapore - Health Expenditure Indicators, Historical Data and Forecasts
Key Growth Factors - Macroeconomic
- Table: Singapore - Economic Activity, 2006 - 2013
Prescription Market Forecast
- Table: Singapore - Prescription Market Indicators, Historical Data and Forecasts (SGDmn unless otherwise stated)
Patented Drug Market Forecast
- Table: Singapore - Patented Market Indicators, Historical Data and Forecasts
Generics Market Forecast
- Table: Singapore - Generics Market Indicators, Historical Data and Forecasts
OTC Market Forecast
- Table: Singapore - OTC Market Indicators, Historical Data and Forecasts (SGDmn unless otherwise stated)
Medical Device Market Forecast
- Table: Singapore - Medical Device Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts
Pharmaceutical Trade Forecasts
- Table: Singapore - Pharmaceutical Trade Indicators, Historical Data and Forecasts (US$mn)
Other Healthcare Data Forecasts
- Table: Singapore - Other Healthcare Indicators, Historical Data and Forecasts
Key Risks to BMI's Forecast Scenario
Competitive Landscape
Company Profiles
Leading Multinationals
Pfizer
GlaxoSmithKline
Merck & Co
Novartis
Sanofi-Aventis
Baxter
Indigenous Manufacturers
Haw Par
SciGen
MerLion Pharmaceuticals
Veredus Laboratories
Country Snapshot: Singapore Demographic Data
Section 1: Population
- Table: Demographic Indicators, 2005-2030
- Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown, 2000-2030
Section 2: Education and Healthcare
- Table: Education, 2000-2004
- Table: Vital Statistics, 2005-2030
Section 3: Labour Market and Spending Power
- Table: Employment Indicators, 2001-2006
- Table: Consumer Expenditure, 2000-2012 (US$)
BMI Forecast Modelling
How We Generate Our Pharmaceutical Industry Forecasts
Pharmaceutical Business Environment Ratings Methodology
Ratings Overview
- Table: Pharmaceutical Business Environment Indicators
Weighting
- Table: Weighting Of Components
Sources