Zimbabwe Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Report Q2 2009

We have forecast market values through to 2013, however we caution that future prospects are virtually impossible to assess properly. The task is made more difficult by the fact that - for several years now - official data-gathering has effectively ceased, which, coupled with hyperinflation, makes any sound and comprehensive analysis of the real economy extremely problematic. For this Q209 Pharmaceutical and Healthcare report, BMI has forecast that the prescription drug market - as a proportion of total pharmaceutical spending - will decrease from 85% in 2008 to 76% by 2013. Despite the widespread low-income capability of the population and rampant inflation, generic drugs will remain at a stagnant 5% of the total drug market during the forecast period. Growth is driven by international donations, high demand for over-the-counter (OTC) analgesics and the epidemiological profile of HIV, tuberculosis and malaria burdens on the healthcare sector.

Beginning in August 2008, the national disaster in Zimbabwe gave rise to a severe cholera outbreak in November 2008. Its transmission and escalation to epidemic levels has resulted from the progressively deteriorating health sector, with over 1,000 people believed to have died from cholera by December 2008.

BMI believes that the situation is set to significantly worsen through to Q309.

In late November 2008 the health sector in Zimbabwe was in a critical state. Poor remuneration and retention depleted the number of qualified medical staff in the country, leaving those that stayed in hospitals with drug shortages and ineffective equipment. BMI believes that political indecisiveness coupled with continued corruption has prevented the distribution of funds, impacting heavily on the healthcare sector, with the latest cholera epidemic underlining the extent of the disaster.

To date (March 2009), the cholera crisis shows marginal signs of improvement. Having reached the embarrassing level of a humanitarian disaster, cases have spread into South Africa and Botswana through border towns. While international aid has alleviated scant resources, the spectacle of devastation has left thousands dead or incapacitated. Despite this, President Robert Mugabe has distracted himself with prolonged power-sharing talks with the opposition leader. While such a coalition may not reduce Mugabe's influence over the population, it symbolises some form of political change. BMI notes that Zimbabwe's misguided governance has contributed to the scale of this disaster, and has exposed the country as almost entirely reliant on international aid.