CNS Drug Discoveries: Attention Deficit Hyperactivity Disorder (ADHD)

Attention Deficit Hyperactivity Disorder (ADHD)

The value of the ADHD market was US$2.4 billion in 2004 and it is now the 9th largest segment of the CNS market by sales and one of the fastest growing (+40% year-on-year). Global sales of ADHD are forecast to reach US$3.3 billion by 2010. This will be due to greater penetration in the treatment of new patients particularly adult ADHD, improvements in patient compliance due to the launch of new formulations, new nonschedule II drugs and the development of novel classes of drugs in late-stage clinical trials.

There has been a significant increase in ADHD diagnosis and prescription of medicine since the early 1990s due to wider understanding of the condition in the mental health community, increased use of medication and healthcare coverage and the launch of ADHD-specific drugs (from 2000 onwards). ADHD is one of the most common psychiatric disorders of childhood and approximately 50% to 70% of children with ADHD will continue to experience symptoms into adulthood. In 2000, it was estimated that 4-5 million individuals (mainly children) were diagnosed with ADHD of whom, 75-85% were treated with psychostimulants. Over 8 million adults in the US may exhibit the symptoms of ADHD, while only an estimated 600,000 are being treated.

Approximately 94% of ADHD global sales were derived from the US in 2004, with the remainder from Europe. This is largely due to a higher diagnosis rate in paediatrics and availability of drugs for medical reimbursement. Over the last 3 years the value of the ADHD market has grown by an average of 37% per year. Growth has been driven by the launch of new non-stimulant drugs, new patients and the development of new formulations providing flexibility in dosing and higher patient compliance. The ADHD market is still in its infancy and is a classic example where a niche market has been exploited by biotechnological companies and pharmaceutical companies, having recognised its potential, are launching new agents to capitalise on future growth.

Key questions answered by this report

By what size has the patient population increased in the last 10 years?
What market impact will the treatment of adult ADHD have?
To what degree will Shire be able to defend Adderall sales in the face of Lilly's Strattera and generic competition in 2007?
What strategies are being employed to ensure better patient compliance and market share?
What are the prospects for Cephalon with the launch of Provigil in the US in 2006?

About the Author

Dr Cheryl Barton is a highly regarded independent consultant with over 14 years research and business analysis experience. Following her senior research positions in academia and seven years with Merck, in which she was responsible for research projects ranging from Alzheimer's Disease to schizophrenia, Dr Barton joined Dutch investment bank ABN Amro NV as a senior equity analyst. At ABN Amro NV she was lead analyst on major pharmaceutical companies such as Roche and Sanofi-Synthlabo, and assessed the potential impact of new drug development on European Stocks.

In 2002, Dr Barton established a consulting business to provide independent, tailor-made, pharmaceutical thematic research to investment houses and pharmaceutical companies. The research reports combine independent scientific analysis with patient-based models to forecast the potential sales growth of key drugs in clinical development.