CNS Drug Discoveries: Depression

Publication Date	November 2006
Publisher	Espicom
Product Type	Report
Pages	92
ISBN Number	not applicable
Product Code	ESP00388

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Summary

Depression

The depression market is the largest segment of the CNS market with global sales of US$15.9 billion in 2004, and has grown by 1.2% year-on-year. This is a mature market with a number of the leading brands facing patent expiration in the next 6 years. This chapter focuses on the challenges that face the antidepressant market and the strategies that companies are taking to maximise the life-cycle of their products. It looks at the changing dynamics in the marketplace as new classes of drugs such as the selective noradrenaline reuptake inhibitor, Cymbalta (Eli Lilly), and new formulations of drugs such as the 5-HT1A antagonist, Wellbutrin XL (GSK), are launched.

It is estimated that depression affects over 18.8 million US citizens and over 121 million people worldwide, with approximately 20% of the global population at risk of developing major depression at some point in their lives. Women are twice as likely to suffer from depression as men (9.5% versus 5.8%), but prevalence figures vary from country to country. Depression costs the US an estimated US$44 billion each year. The WHO predicts depression will become the leading cause of disability by the year 2020.

Global depression market

The global market for antidepressants is unevenly distributed. In 2004, the US antidepressant market accounted for 71% of the global market compared to 24% in Europe and 5% rest of world (largely Japan).

We believe the depression market has matured and there are now 5 key areas of unmet clinical need that will need to be addressed in order to drive further growth of the market. These include improvements in the efficacy, speed of onset, safety/tolerability of drugs and a reduction in remission rates and relapse/recurrence.

Key questions answered by this chapter include:

What impact will generic substitution have on leading SSRIs such Cipramil (Lundbeck/Forest), Zoloft (Pfizer) and Paxil (GSK)?
How will new classes/ formulations such as Cymbalta (Eli Lilly) and Wellbutrin XL (GSK) affect market share?
How is life-cycle management helping to protect revenues and extend the market?
To what degree will novel drugs address the unmet clinical needs of treatment-resistant depressives, estimated to be 50%-60% of the patient pool?
Why should Europe be of interest to CNS drug developers?

Content

Executive Summary
- THE FACTS
- What is depression and why are we interested in it?
Patient Statistics
- Incidence, diagnosis rates and treatment; now and in the future
Patient Model
- Summary of patient population forecasts in seven major markets (2005A-2012E)
- Model assumptions
- DRUG GROWTH DRIVERS
- DRUG GROWTH RISKS/DAMPENERS
Global Antidepressant Market
- Global CNS Market (US$68 7 billion)
Global Sales Split
- Global sales by region (2005A)
- US market
- Antidepressant US drugs sales by (2005A)
- European market
- European Antidepressant sales by (2005A)
- ROW/Japanese market
- The Major Players Products in 2005 & 2006
- Market share of Antidepressant players by sales (Dec 2005A)
- The Major Players and Products in 2012
- Market share of Antidepressant Players by sales (Dec 2012E)
Current Treatments
- Leading Brands
- Comparison of leading antidepressant drugs
- Patent Exposure of Current Products
- Patent Exposure of Leading Antidepressant Brands
Analysis Of Leading Brands
- Selective Serotonin Reuptake Inhibitors (SSRIs)
- Lexapro/Cipralex (Forest/Lundbeck)
- Prozac (Eli Lilly)
- Zoloft (Pfizer)
- Serotonin and Noradrenaline Reuptake Inhibitors (SNRIs)
- Cymbalta (Eli Lilly)
- Effexor (Wyeth)
- Noradrenaline and Dopamine Reuptake Inhibitors (NDRIs)
- Wellbutrin (GlaxoSmithKline)
Global Sales Forecasts Of Current Treatments 2005 - 2012
- Sales Forecasts of Current Leading Antidepressant Drugs
- Model assumptions
- NEW DRUGS IN R&D
- Drugs in Development to Treat Depression and Anxiety Related Disorders
Analysis Of Phase III Drugs
- New Drugs in Phase III Development to Treat Depression and Anxiety
- Phase III drugs
- Other Phase III drugs of interest
- Triple Reuptake Inhibitors (TRIs)
- DOV 216,303 (Merck & Co /DOV Pharmaceuticals)
- Potency of Antidepressants on Amine Reuptake (nanomoles)
- Serotonin Noradrenaline Reuptake Inhibitor (SNRI)
- Pristiq (Wyeth)
- Neurokinin (NK) Receptor Antagonist
- Saredutant (sanofi-aventis)
- VIlazodone (Clinical Data)
Global Sales Forecasts Of Phase III Antidepressant And Anti-Anxiety Drugs 2006 - 2012
- Sales Forecasts of Phase III Developmental Drugs for Depression and Anxiety
- Model assumptions
Analysis Of Phase II Drugs
- New Drugs in Early Clinical Development to Treat Depression and Anxiety
- NS2359 (NeuroSearch/GlaxoSmithKline)
- NK Receptor Antagonists
- Vestipitant + Paroxetine (GlaxoSmithKline)
- Nemifitide (Tetragenex Pharmaceuticals)
Global Sales Forecasts Of Phase II Antidepressant Drugs 2006 - 2012
- Sales Forecasts of Phase II Developmental Antidepressant Drugs
- Model assumptions
Competitor Ratio Analysis - Products
- CR Analysis of Antidepressant Agents Approved by 2012 - Based on Drug Class
Competitor Ratio Analysis - Companies
- CR Analysis of Antidepressant Agents Approved by 2012 - Based on Company
Winners & Losers
- Summary of Key Companies and Drugs in the Antidepressant Market by 2012
- Winners
- Losers
Discontinuation Of Drugs
- Antidepressants/Anxiolytics discontinued from clinical development
- Depression APPENDIX 1
- Assessment of Depression Criteria
Depression Appendix 2
- Phase transition probability
- Probability of launch
Depression Appendix 3
- Patient Model
- Summary of US Depression and Anxiety Patient Population Forecasts
- Summary of Europe (Top 5) Depression and Anxiety Patient Population Forecasts
- Summary of Japanese Depression and Anxiety Patient Population Forecasts
- depression APPENDIX 4
- Global Antidepressant Drugs Sales 2005A-20012E
Depression Appendix 5
- Competitor Ratio Analysis Criteria
- Key Antidepressant/Anxiolytic Drugs on the Market by 2012
Depression Glossary
Depression References
Acronyms