CNS Drug Discoveries: what the future holds 2008 FULL REPORT

Unique market share and sales forecasts by product to 2014

A comprehensive examination of 5 major CNS therapy areas

Detailed competitor analysis of current and upcoming products

• Five key CNS sectors
• Alzheimer's disease
• Multiple sclerosis
• Depression
• Parkinson's disease
• Schizophrenia

With this new 4000+ page analysis you can...

• Easily evaluate and understand the prospects for 60 leading and upcoming products
• Assess the impact on companies of new product introduction
• Understand the impact of generic competition in key sectors
• Appreciate the drivers and dampeners which will help or hinder market growth
• Review the Phase II product pipeline

For each therapy area the report provides

Comprehensive Overview

Patient statistics:

Prevalence, diagnosed and treatment rates
Patient populations in the US, Europe and Japan

Growth drivers:

Risk factors (genetics, age, sex), medical guidelines, unmet clinical need and off-label use in other CNS disorders

Growth dampeners:

Safety issues, label changes, impact of generics, reimbursement and ethical issues

An overview of the value of the CNS market:

Global sales
Sales growth to 2014
Major players and market share 2007 and 2014
A review of the major players based on market share/sales

Current treatments:

Competitor analysis of leading brands and companies
Patent exposure
Sales forecasts by product 2007-2014

Drugs in Phase II/III development:

Focus on new classes of drugs and companies involved
Sales forecasts by year of product launch to 2014

Unique competitor ratio analysis:

Drugs within each sector are analysed in the report using 5 point criteria for success evaluation

Who will be the winners & losers?

Identify the winners and losers within each sector based on competitor analysis, current pipeline products and market conditions

Understand the prospects for this US$92 billion market!

THE GLOBAL CNS MARKET

The global market for CNS disorders is now one of the largest therapeutic sectors with sales estimated at almost US$92 billion in 2007.

In the new edition of this best-selling report we have identified 60 drugs or therapeutic agents which we believe have the potential to reach the market by 2014, and could offer significant advancement in treatment and address areas of large unmet clinical need.

All CNS categories have attracted, and continue to attract, significant investment from the pharmaceutical industry in the development of safer, more efficacious medicines. In some areas such as depression and schizophrenia, many of the new agents are based on similar chemical classes to existing treatments ("me too"), but may be better tolerated and/or more efficacious.

In contrast, other areas such as Parkinson's disease (PD), Alzheimer's disease (AD) and multiple sclerosis (MS) have seen a plethora of innovative medicines emerging that have novel mechanisms of actions. These may lend themselves for use as both monotherapies and in combination with existing therapies in the symptomatic treatment of disease or in some cases in modifying the course of the disease.

Several drugs are being developed for multiple indications and this is particularly apparent in depression and schizophrenia where cognitive symptoms are addressed. The majority of companies focus on a diverse range of CNS disorders attempting to address unmet clinical need and large patient populations. However, in some markets such as MS, a handful of companies dominate the market, whilst in AD and PD there are many players, including biotechnology and biopharmaceutical companies, where large specialist sales forces may not be necessary to promote novel medicines.

Thorough research, hard-hitting opinion and year-by-year forecasts

This report provides a complete review of the markets, products and pipeline prospects for 5 key CNS areas.

Firstly, the individual markets, the major players, treatment drivers, market resistors, potential patient populations and unmet clinical needs have been analysed, in addition to which, many therapies and pipeline products currently in Phase II and III development have been evaluated.

Secondly, we have reviewed each of the leading brands and potential new brands and identified their key attributes, based on a number of criteria including:

• Novelty/rationale for mechanism of action.
• Proof of concept/clinical data.
• Management/clinical expertise.

Competition within the marketplace/gaining share of voice through marketing, advertising and sales force ability.
Risks associated with developing a drug within a therapeutic class.

Thirdly, we have established a competitor ratio analysis based on each of the criteria mentioned above. Each criterion attracts an award of up to 10 points, with a maximum score of 50, thus enabling the establishment of an Espicom "ranking table" in each segment of the market, dependent on the drug/company's relative attributes and enabling comparison across therapy areas.

Fourthly, based on the competitor ratio analysis of each therapeutic section, we have been able to draw conclusions as to which CNS therapy areas receive R&D focus from the leading pharmaceutical companies and which therapy areas are most likely to result in product launches by 2014.

Multiple sclerosis

With the launch of up to 12 new disease-modifying agents, three vaccines and one novel drug designed to treat the symptoms of multiple sclerosis (MS) and improve quality of life, the MS market is in an exciting phase of evolution.

Alzheimer's disease

By 2014, there will be considerable change in the Alzheimer's disease (AD) market due to generic competition, better utilisation of acetylcholinesterase inhibitors and new product launches which, for the first time, will treat the condition and not the symptoms.

Parkinson's disease

In 2007, approximately US$3.6 billion was spent on the symptomatic treatment of Parkinson's disease (PD). Although this neurodegenerative disease affects approximately 1% of the population its prevalence increases with age, thus it is likely to become more commonplace due to patient demographics and become a greater burden to healthcare payers.

Schizophrenia

The antipsychotic market generated global sales of US$19.6 billion, accounting for 21% of global CNS sales in 2007. While atypical antipsychotics now account for over 80% of global sales, concerns over safety are leading to a slow down in growth.

Depression

Antidepressants accounted for around 21% of the total CNS drug sales in 2007, with sales of US$19.4 billion. However, we anticipate that within our forecast period to 2014, the market will show negative growth as the emergence of new products is offset by the impact of generics on leading brands.