CNS Drug Discoveries: Multiple Sclerosis

Publication Date	November 2006
Publisher	Espicom
Product Type	Report
Pages	124
ISBN Number	not applicable
Product Code	ESP00389

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Summary

Multiple Sclerosis

It is estimated that over 350,000 Americans (approximately 1 in 1,000 aged over 30 years) live with multiple sclerosis (MS) and approximately 3 million live with it worldwide. However, the prevalence may be higher because of the uncertainty in diagnosing the condition. Women are twice as susceptible as men and it is more common in people in northern latitudes over the age of 18 years. In addition, siblings of an individual with multiple sclerosis have a higher chance of developing the disease.

The incidence of multiple sclerosis varies throughout the world, although there is a significantly higher incidence of the disease found in the Northern Hemisphere. Multiple sclerosis is the most common cause of neurological disability in young adults in the UK. It is variable in presentation and progression. Although there is no cure, there are many symptomatic treatments available. However, many patients do not respond to current therapies (30%) and the more chronic forms (secondary-progressive MS) are poorly treated with existing therapies.

Global multiple sclerosis market

Approximately 50% of multiple sclerosis global sales were derived from the US (US$2.3 billion) in 2004, with the remainder largely derived in Europe (nearly 50%, US$2.2 billion). Avonex (Biogen Idec) is amongst the few CNS drugs that generated blockbuster sales of over US$1 billion globally in 2004. There has been considerable growth in sales as more beta-interferon-naive patients receive treatment due to reimbursement of injectable agents - Betaseron has benefited from European approval to treat secondary -progressive multiple sclerosis (around 40% of the patient population).

Sales growth will be driven by current drugs gaining broader indications, MS medicine being prescribed earlier in treatment in clinically -defined multiple sclerosis patients and the longer-term use of combination therapies as more classes of drug become available.

Key questions answered by this chapter include:

What are the 5 leading products in the US, Europe and Japan?
What will the shape of the market be in 2010?
How will Biogen Idec defend its market leading position from Serono, Schering and Teva?
What role will combination therapies play?
What opportunities are there in the treatment of primary-progressive multiple sclerosis?
What are the prospects for drugs in development such as Tysabri Campath, Mylinax, Fampridine SR and laquinimod?

Content

Executive Summary
- THE FACTS
- What is MS and why are we interested in it?
Patient Statistics
- incidence, diagnosis rates and treatment; now and in the future
- MS categories
- Types of MS
Patient Model
- the treatable MS patient population will have a cAGr 2005-2012 = 4 6%
- Summary of patient population forecasts
- DRUG GROWTH DRIVERS
- DRUG GROWTH RISKS/DAMPENERS
- GloBAl MS MArKet
- Global CNS Market (US$68 7 billion)
Global Sales Split
- Global sales split (2005A)
- uS market
- MS US drugs sales split (2005A)
- european market
- MS European drugs sales split (2005A)
- Japanese market
- the major players
- Market share of MS players by sales (Dec 2005A)
- players and products in 2005 & 2006
- players and products in 2012
Current Treatments
- leading Brands
- Comparison of Leading MS Agents
- current products patent exposure
- Patent Exposure of Leading Brands
Analysis Of Leading Brands
- Disease-modifying agents
- Disease-modifying agents
- Avonex (Biogen idec/Genzyme)
- Betaferon/Betaseron (Berlex/Schering AG)
- copaxone (teva)
- rebif (Serono)
- tysabri
- Novantrone (Serono)
Global Sales Forecasts Of Current Treatments 2005-2012
- Sales Forecasts of Current Leading MS Drugs
- Model assumptions
- NEW DRUGS IN R&D
- Drugs in Development to Treat MS
Analysis Of Phase III Drugs
- New Drugs in Phase III Development to Treat MS
- Disease-modifying agents
- MS Symptoms
- campath (Genzyme/Schering AG)
- FtY720 (Novartis)
- laquinimod (teva/Active Biotech)
- MBp8298 (BioMS)
- Mylinax (Serono/ivax)
- rituxan (Genentech/Biogen idec/roche/chugai/Zenyaju Kogyo)
- teriflunomide (sanofi-aventis)
- MS Symptoms
- Neurelan (elan/Acorda)
- Trial MS-F202: Timed 25-foot walk response rate of MS patients treated with Fampridine SR
Global Sales Forecasts Of Phase III Ms Drugs 2006-2012
- Sales Forecasts of Phase III Developmental MS Drugs
- Model assumptions
Analysis Of Phase II Drugs
- New Drugs in Early Clinical Development to Treat MS
- Disease-modifying agents
- Vaccines
- Disease-modifying agents
- ABt-874 (Abbott)
- Atl1102 (Antisense/iSiS pharmaceuticals)
- BG-12 (Biogen idec)
- Daclizumab (Biogen idec/Biopharma)
- SB-683699 (GlaxoSmithKline/tanabe Seiyaku)
- Vaccines
- NeuroVax (tirc)
- tovaxin (opexa therapeutics)
- other interesting phase ii Drugs
Global Sales Forecasts Of Phase II Ms Drugs 2006 - 2012
- Sales Forecasts of Phase II Developmental MS Drugs
- Model assumptions
Competitor Ratio Analysis - Products
- CR Analysis of MS Agents Approved by 2012 - Based on Drug Class
Competitor Ratio Analysis - Companies
- CR Analysis of MS Agents Approved by 2012 - Based on Company
- WiNNerS & loSerS
- Summary of Key Companies and Drugs in the MS Market by 2012
- Winners
- losers
Discontinuation Of Drugs
- MS Drugs Discontinued from Clinical Development
Ms Appendix 1
- clinical diagnostic test for MS
Ms Appendix 2
- expanded Disability Status Scale (eDSS)
Ms Appendix 3
- phase transition probability
- Probability of launch
Ms Appendix 4
- patient Model
- Summary of US MS Patient Population Forecasts
- Summary of Europe (Tope 5) MS Patient Population Forecasts
- Summary of Japan MS Patient Population Forecasts
Ms Appendix 5
- Global MS Drugs Sales 2005-20012
- Global MS Drug Sales 2005A-2012E
Ms APPENDIX 6
- competitor ratio Analysis criteria
- Key MS Drugs on the Market by 2012
Ms Glossary
Ms References
Acronymns