How to Forecast Generic Pharmaceutical Prices

A practical methodology to calculate future generic product prices

Publication Date	March 2009
Publisher	URCH Publishing
Product Type	Report
Pages	41
ISBN Number	not applicable
Product Code	URC00028

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Summary

How to Forecast Generic Pharmaceutical Prices - A practical method to estimate future generic product prices is a unique guide that will help you be able to forecast future generic prices before and after launch.

Specifically designed to be instantly usable, this publication, presents a tried and tested methodology to predict how the price of a generic medicine will fall after patent expiry and launch.

The practical guide, which is produced by URCH Publishing in association with WaveData, a medical price analysis company, will allow users to build spreadsheets and forecast products prices as required.

The model presented is based on solid methodology drawing from over 6 year's work (over 60,000 hours) cataloguing 6 million pharmaceutical prices. A 120 real-life examples of generic product were studied to find patterns of price decay.

The model takes into account both regional drug reimbursement policies and the brand value of the product.

20 tables provide detailed percentage points according to the number of generic licence holders entering the marketplace post patent-expiry.

The model works in the absence of government price capping, where the price decay happens as a result of competition between suppliers (free pricing) rather than statuary price reductions, and the reimbursement price is high enough to allow free pricing.

5 Reasons to Invest in this Report

Stop using "rule of thumb" to calculate the decline in price

Adopt the suggested methodology immediately

Easily understandable, designed for the non-statistician

Follow clear instructions to build your own spreadsheet models

Adjust the number of expected competitors with first 3 years of launch

This unique guide is a must have for all:

Pricing and reimbursement executives

Marketing Managers in Generic Drug Companies

Strategy directors in pharmaceutical companies

Consultancies with an interest in pharmaceutical markets

Content

1. Summary

2. Introduction

3. Mechanism

4. Background to the study

- Modelling

- Reimbursement

-Brand value

-Regional factors

6. A Step By Step Guide to Forecasting the Decline in a Generic Drug Price 10 7.

Conclusion

Appendix 1. Calculation Tables According to Number of Generic Licence Holders 20

Appendix 2. Sterling (£) exchange rates 1 June 2006 40 References

List of Figures Figure

Figure 1. Generic Price Decay
Figure 2. Variations in Price Decay of Generics (Time vs. Percentage Fall)
Figure 3. D Factor used in calculations
Figure 4. Reduction in forecast value due to various D factors
Figure 5. Generic Prescribing in the UK, 1996-2006
Figure 6. D Factor used in calculations
Figure 7. Enter reimbursement price in Spreadsheet
Figure 8. Reimbursement price for 36 months
Figure 9. Estimate number of licence holders
Figure 10. Enter number of generic competitors over 36 months
Figure 11. Find appropriate calculation table
Figure 12. Number of generic licence holders may vary
Figure 13. Find 36 monthly values
Figure 14. Calculate the % of original reimbursement price
Figure 15. Calculate the % of original price each month
Figure 16. Multiply forecast by % of reimbursement price
Figure 17. Final Generic Forecast