Commercial Insight: HIV - The battle for market share is getting fiercer

Publication Date	August 2008
Publisher	Datamonitor
Product Type	Report
Pages	188
ISBN Number	not applicable
Product Code	DAT13325

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Summary

Introduction

In 2007, HIV drugs achieved sales of $9.3 billion in the 7MM, growing faster than the overall market at a CAGR of 11.3% from 2004-2007. Due to patent expirations, Datamonitor expects the market's growth to slow down somewhat, reaching total sales of $15.1 billion in 2017. Among the ROW, the Canadian HIV market in 2007 was worth $272 million, achieving a CAGR of 24% from 2004-2007.

Scope

In-depth analysis of the current HIV market across the US, EU, Japan and a ROW snapshot
Thorough assessment of underlying commercial and clinical factors shaping the antiretroviral market
Detailed sales forecasts for the major antiretroviral classes, molecules and brands in each of the seven major markets
Case study analysis of the Canadian market including an in-depth assessment of the healthcare system and potential opportunities and threats

Highlights

Gilead is now the market leader in HIV with a portfolio of just four marketed products. Datamonitor expects JnJ/Tibotec and Merck to be the fastest growing companies over the next 10 years. While Tibotec only entered the field with the launch of its first product in 2006, Merck & Co.'s first-in-class Isentress reenergized its HIV efforts in 2007.

The HIV market is very concentrated, with the top 10 brands accounting for 80% of total antiretroviral sales across the 7MM in 2007. Truvada was the bestselling drug with revenues of $1.5 billion. Gilead and BMS' rapidly growing joint venture Atripla was already the fourth best selling HIV drug despite the absence of ex-US sales during the period.

While the 7MM and Canada are commercially the most significant for HIV, companies are now turning towards fast-growing emerging markets as new sources of revenue growth. The potential is there: the 7MM only account for 36% of the globally infected population, but more than 85% of revenues.

Reasons to Purchase

Understand the changing market dynamics of HIV drugs, key success factors for leading brands as well as the impact of pending patent expiries
Understand the patient acquisition process with key inflection points in the decision-making process to choose antiretroviral drug brands
Obtain full global, country, class and product-specific forecasts of currently marketed and pipeline antiretrovirals from 2007 to 2017

Content

Chapter 1 Executive Summary
- Datamonitor Insight Into The Disease Market
- Related Reports
Chapter 2 Market Definition
- Market Definition For This Report
- Disease Definition
Overview Of Antiretroviral Classes
- Nucleoside Reverse Transcriptase Inhibitors (Nrtis)
- Non-Nucleoside Reverse Transcriptase Inhibitors
- Protease Inhibitors
- Entry Inhibitors And Others
Chapter 3 Patient Acquisition Process
Introduction
- Patient Care Path
- Points Of Influence In The Patient Care Path
- Increasing Awareness Of Hiv And Encouraging More Voluntary Testing Of Patients
- Choice Of First-Line Therapy
- Decisions Following Treatment Failure
- Factors That Influence Patient Flow Through The Healthcare System
Chapter 4 Market Overview
- Seven Major Markets
- Current Market Assessment
- Future Market Assessment
- Opportunities And Threats
- Opportunities
- Threats
- Us
- Current Market Assessment
- Future Market Assessment
- Opportunities And Threats
- Opportunities
- Threats
- Japan
- Current Market Assessment
- Future Market Assessment
- Opportunities And Threats
- Opportunities
- Threats
- 5 Major European Markets (5eu)
- Current Market Assessment
- Future Market Assessment
- Opportunities And Threats
- Opportunities
- Threats
- France
- Current Market Assessment
- Future Market Assessment
- Germany
- Current Market Assessment
- Future Market Assessment
- Italy
- Current Market Assessment
- Future Market Assessment
- Spain
- Current Market Assessment
- Future Market Assessment
- Uk
- Current Market Assessment
- Future Market Assessment
- Rest Of World Snapshot
- Current Market Assessment
- Opportunities And Threats
- Opportunities
- Threats
Chapter 5 Brand Dynamics
Overview Of Competitive Landscape
- Drivers Of Brand Choice
- Patient Resistance Profile
- Quality Of Life Considerations
- Pill Burden And Dosing Frequency
- Side Effects
- Us Formulary Status For Leading Brands
- Marketing Strategies
- Promotional Spend
- Sponsorship And Public Awareness Campaigns
- Direct To Consumer Advertising
- Atripla Is The New Gold Standard For Newly Diagnosed Patients
- Truvada And Sustiva Are Successful First-Line Drugs
- Drug Profile
- Product Positioning
- Brand Forecast To 2017
- Strategic Recommendations
- Kaletras Position As Leading Pi Is Under Threat
- Drug Profile
- Product Positioning
- Brand Forecast To 2017
- Strategic Recommendations
- Reyataz To Replace Kaletra As Leading Pi
- Castle Results And Eu Approval For Nave Patients To Increase Uptake
- Drug Profile
- Product Positioning
- Brand Forecast To 2017
- Strategic Recommendations
- Isentress Is Being Positioned Across All Lines Of Therapy
- Target Product Profile
- Development Overview
- Product Positioning
- Drug Forecast To 2017
- Strategic Recommendations
- Intelence Is Enabling Use Of Nnrtis In Late-Stage Therapy
- Target Product Profile
- Development Overview
- Product Positioning
- Drug Forecast To 2017
- Strategic Recommendations
Chapter 6 Key Developers
- Strategic Overview
- Trends In Corporate Strategy
- Companies Are Pursuing First-Line Indication
- Gilead
- Corporate Strategy
- Hiv Portfolio Assessment
- Glaxosmithkline
- Corporate Strategy
- Hiv Portfolio Assessment
- Tibotec
- Corporate Strategy
- Hiv Portfolio Assessment
- Porfolio Assessment Of Other Leading Companies
- Sustivas Patent Expiry May Put Bmss Hiv Franchise At Risk
- With Norvirs Patent Expiry In 2014 And A Lackluster Pipeline, Abbotts Position In The Hiv Market Will Diminish
- Roche Has Publicly Announced Withdrawal From The Hiv Market
- Boehringer Ingelheim Is Heavily Reliant On Viramune And Aptivus
- Mercks Strong Pipeline Will Make It A Fierce Competitor In The Hiv Market
Chapter 7 Case Studies
- Canadian Hiv Market Overview
Overview Of The Canadian Healthcare System
- All Jurisdictions Cover The Majority Of Hiv Drug Costs In One Way Or Another, Although The Mechanism For Coverage Varies
- Market Access For Hiv Drugs Is Ultimately Determined By Provincial Drug Plans
- Price Constraints Imposed Mainly Through Provincial Listings
- Opportunities
- Rising Prevalence Of Hiv Contributes To Growth Of The Market
- Drug Approval Times Have Declined Significantly
- Threats
- Cost Containment Policies Implemented By Individual Plans
- Proposals For A Common National Formulary To Increase Bargaining Powers With Industry
Bibliography
- Journal Papers
- Websites
- Others
- Datamonitor Reports
Appendix A Market Assumption
- New Product Paunches
- Data Definitions, Limitations And Assumptions
- Standard Units
- Japanese Market Data
- Derivation Of Sales Forecasts And Pricing Trends
- Forecast Methodology
Appendix B
- Contributing Experts
- Report Methodology
- About Datamonitor Healthcare
- About The Infectious Diseases And Respiratory Analysis Team
- Disclaimer