Commercial Insight: Community Antibacterials - Pipelines wither as generic tidal wave takes its toll

Publication Date	January 2009
Publisher	Datamonitor
Product Type	Report
Pages	212
ISBN Number	not applicable
Product Code	DAT14044

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Summary

Introduction

Datamonitor research points to this sector, beleaguered by patent expiries, barriers to market entry and uptake, becoming increasingly inclement towards branded drugs. Generic incursion has taken a heavy toll on the market at a number of levels. The volume of key brands facing generic competition makes it even harder for remaining products to court large revenues in the community sector.

Scope

Analysis of the retail market for antibacterials across Japan, US, France, Italy, Germany Spain and the UK
Product by product analysis of the key marketed brands with a 10 year forecast
Assessment of key developments shaping the sector, e.g., generic substitution
Discussion of opportunities and threats on a general, regional and national level

Highlights

The community market for antibiotics is declining at a CAGR of -3% over the 2003 07 period. This is the mark of a sector already saturated by generic product. Over the 2003 07 period generic share of the market has grown from 30% of the market, to 40% of seven major market revenues, and from 56% to 65% of volume share.

Aside from the substantial difference in market sizes between the US, Japan and the five major EU markets, the nature of community antibacterial sales across the three territories varies greatly. For example, market shares fluctuate substantially depending on whether volume or value statistics are considered.

In 2007, the US accounted for a much higher proportion of value share of the market (57%) than volume share (47%), while relatively speaking, the 5EU accounted for a much lower proportion of value share (27%) by comparison to volume share (37%)pointing to substantial differences in the average cost per standard unit.

Reasons to Purchase

Learn about the extent of the still expanding generic domination of the sector and how to counter it
Assess the regional and national differences in terms of class and brand preferences and where the opportunities lie
Review the changes in class sales that signal the shift in prescribing practices

Content

ABOUT DATAMONITOR HEALTHCARE
About the Infectious Diseases and Respiratory pharmaceutical analysis team
CHAPTER 1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
- Strategic scoping and focus
- Datamonitor insight into the disease market
- Related reports
CHAPTER 2 MARKET DEFINITION
- Market definition for this report
- Geographic coverage
- Defining the community setting
- Anatomical therapy classes
CHAPTER 3 MARKET OVERVIEW
- Seven major markets
- Regional variations
- Opportunities and threats
- Opportunity 1: Adjusting the financial risks of drug development
- Opportunity 2: Accommodating alternative business models
- Opportunity 3: Aim for higher value ground
- Threat 1: Better opportunities elsewhere - the demise of the community pipeline
- Threat 2: Increased generic attentions on existing brands
- US
- Market assessment
- Opportunities and threats
- The Food & Drug Administration
- Japan
- Market assessment
- Opportunities and threats
- Regulation, tradition and reform
- Five major European markets (5EU)
- Market assessment
- Country variations
- Opportunities and threats
- Time to cut back, but how and where?
- France
- Current market assessment
- Germany
- Current market assessment
- Italy
- Current market assessment
- Spain
- Current market assessment
- UK
- Current market assessment
CHAPTER 4 BRAND DYNAMICS
- Overview of competitive landscape
- Patient acquisition process
- Introduction
- Patient care path
- Influences on patient behavior
- Influences on physician behavior
- US formulary status for leading brands
- Cephalosporins
- Cefzon (cefdinir)
- Drug profile
- Product positioning
- Brand forecast to 2017
- Spectracef (cefditoren pivoxil)
- Drug profile
- Product positioning
- Brand forecast to 2017
- Maxipime (cefepime)
- Drug profile
- Product positioning
- Brand forecasts to 2017
- Fluoroquinolones
- Cravit (levofloxacin)
- Drug profile
- Product positioning
- Brand forecasts to 2017
- Avelox (moxifloxacin)
- Drug profile
- Product positioning
- Brand forecasts to 2017
- Macrolides and similars
- Biaxin (clarithromycin)
- Drug profile
- Product positioning
- Brand forecasts to 2017
- Ketek (telithromycin)
- Drug profile
- Product positioning
- Brand forecasts to 2017
- Other classes
- Cubicin (daptomycin)
- Drug profile
- Product positioning
- Brand forecasts to 2017
- Primaxin (imipenem and cilastatin)
- Drug profile
- Product positioning
- Brand forecasts to 2017
- Zyvox (linezolid)
- Drug profile
- Product positioning
- Brand forecasts to 2017
- Merrem (meropenem)
- Drug profile
- Product positioning
- Brand forecasts to 2017
- Tazocin (piperacillin and tazobactam)
- Drug profile
- Product positioning
- Brand forecasts to 2017
BIBLIOGRAPHY
- Journal papers
- Presentations
- Websites
- Books
- Datamonitor reports
APPENDIX A - MARKET ASSUMPTIONS
- Patent expiries
- Data definitions, limitations and assumptions
- Standard units
- Japanese market data
- Derivation of sales forecasts and pricing trends
- Forecast methodology
APPENDIX B
- Contributing experts
- Report methodology
- About Datamonitor
- About Datamonitor Healthcare
- About the Infectious Disease analysis team
- Disclaimer
- Table 1: Key events impacting the community antibacterials market, 1991-2019
- Table 2: Sales forecasts for community antibiotics in the seven major markets ($m), 2007-2017
- Table 3: Summary of opportunities and threats in the community antibacterials market across the seven major markets, 2007
- Table 4: Key pathogens targeted by marketed or developmental vaccines, 2008
- Table 5: Drivers of outpatient parenteral antibiotic therapy use
- Table 6: New antibacterials approved since 1998
- Table 7: Community antibacterial class sales dynamics in the US, 2007 and 2017
- Table 8: Leading branded community antibacterial sales ($m) in the US, 2007-2017
- Table 9: Sales forecasts for community antibiotics in the US ($m), 2007-2017
- Table 10: Summary of opportunities and threats in the community antibacterial market in the US, 2007
- Table 11: Community antibacterial class sales dynamics in Japan, 2007 and 2017
- Table 12: Leading branded community antibacterial sales ($m) in Japan, 2007-2017
- Table 13: Sales forecasts for community antibiotics in Japan ($m), 2007-2017
- Table 14: Summary of opportunities and threats in the community antibacterials market in Japan, 2007
- Table 15: Community antibacterial class sales dynamics in the 5EU, 2007 and 2017
- Table 16: Leading branded community antibacterial sales ($m) in the 5EU, 2007-2017
- Table 17: Sales forecasts for community antibiotics in the 5EU ($m), 2007-2017
- Table 18: Differences in community sales presence for featured antibacterial products across the 5EU, 2007
- Table 19: Summary of opportunities and threats in the European market, 2008
- Table 20: Community antibacterial class sales dynamics in France, 2007 and 2017
- Table 21: Leading branded community antibacterial sales ($m) in France, 2007-2017
- Table 22: Sales forecasts for community antibiotics in France ($m), 2007-2017
- Table 23: Community antibacterial class sales dynamics in Germany, 2007 and 2017
- Table 24: Leading branded community antibacterial sales ($m) in Germany, 2007-2017
- Table 25: Sales forecasts for community antibiotics in Germany ($m), 2007-2017
- Table 26: Community antibacterial class sales dynamics in Italy, 2007 and 2017
- Table 27: Leading branded community antibacterial sales ($m) in Italy, 2007-2017
- Table 28: Sales forecasts for community antibiotics in Italy ($m), 2007-2017
- Table 29: Community antibacterial class sales dynamics in Spain, 2007 and 2017
- Table 30: Leading branded community antibacterial sales ($m) in Spain, 2007-2017
- Table 31: Sales forecasts for community antibiotics in Spain ($m), 2007-2017
- Table 32: Community antibacterial class sales dynamics in the UK, 2007 and 2017
- Table 33: Leading branded community antibacterial sales ($m) in the UK, 2007-2017
- Table 34: Sales forecasts for community antibiotics in the UK ($m), 2007-2017
- Table 35: Leading branded community antibacterial sales ($m) in the seven major markets, 2007-2017
- Table 36: Representative formulary tier status in the US for leading community antibiotic brands, 2008
- Table 37: Critical recent cephalosporin patent expiries in the seven major markets, 2008
- Table 38: Cefzon - drug profile, 2008
- Table 39: Cefzon sales ($m) in the community antibiotics market by country in the seven major markets, 2007 2017
- Table 40: Spectracef - drug profile, 2008
- Table 41: Spectracef sales ($m) in the community antibiotics market by country in the seven major markets, 2007 2017
- Table 42: Maxipime - drug profile, 2008
- Table 43: Maxipime sales ($m) in the community antibiotics market by country in the seven major markets, 2007 2017
- Table 44: Cravit - drug profile, 2008
- Table 45: Cravit sales ($m) in the community antibiotics market by country in the seven major markets, 2007 2017
- Table 46: Avelox - drug profile, 2008
- Table 47: US approved indications for moxifloxacin, ciprofloxacin and levofloxacin
- Table 48: Avelox sales ($m) in the community antibiotics market by country in the seven major markets, 2007 2017
- Table 49: Biaxin - drug profile, 2008
- Table 50: US approved indications for azithromycin and clarithromycin, 2008
- Table 51: Biaxin sales ($m) in the community antibiotics market by country in the seven major markets, 2007 2017
- Table 52: Ketek - drug profile, 2008
- Table 53: Ketek sales ($m) in the community antibiotics market by country in the seven major markets, 2007 2017
- Table 54: Cubicin - drug profile, 2008
- Table 55: Cubicin sales ($m) in the community antibiotics market by country in the seven major markets, 2007 2017
- Table 56: Primaxin - drug profile, 2008
- Table 57: Primaxin sales ($m) in the community antibiotics market by country in the seven major markets, 2007 2017
- Table 58: Zyvox - drug profile, 2008
- Table 59: Zyvox sales ($m) in the community antibiotics market by country in the seven major markets, 2007 2017
- Table 60: Merrem - drug profile, 2008
- Table 61: Merrem sales ($m) in the community antibiotics market by country in the seven major markets, 2007 2017
- Table 62: Tazocin - drug profile, 2008
- Table 63: Tazocin sales ($m) in the community antibiotics market by country in the seven major markets, 2007 2017
- Table 64: Patent expiry dates for key community antibiotic brands in the seven major markets, 2007-2016
- Table 65: Proportion of product used in the retail environment by volume in the US and 5EU, 2003
- Table 66: Proportion of product used in the retail environment by value in the US and 5EU, 2003
List of Figures
- Figure 1: Defining the community setting - acquisition, onset and treatment
- Figure 2: Community antibiotic sales ($ billion) by class in the seven major markets, 2003 2017
- Figure 3: Regional variations in antibiotic value sales by drug class/category and region in the US, Japan and 5EU, 2007
- Figure 4: Regional variations in antibiotic volume sales by drug class/category and region in the US, Japan and 5EU, 2007
- Figure 5: Regional variations in antibiotic value sales per capita by drug class/category and region in the US, Japan and 5EU, 2007
- Figure 6: Regional variations in antibiotic volume sales per capita by drug class/category and region in the US, Japan and 5EU, 2007
- Figure 7: Regional variations in antibiotic value sales per capita, branded versus generic product averages, 2007
- Figure 8: Regional variations in antibiotic volume sales per capita, branded versus generic product averages, 2007
- Figure 9: Incentives for antibacterial investment
- Figure 10: Antibacterial drug approvals in the US, 1983 2008
- Figure 11: Timeline of antibiotic class discovery, 1930s 2000s
- Figure 12: Community antibacterial class sales dynamics in the US, 2007 and 2017
- Figure 13: Leading branded community antibacterial sales, other brands and generics ($m) in the US, 2007-2017
- Figure 14: Community antibacterial class sales dynamics in Japan, 2007 and 2017
- Figure 15: Leading branded community antibacterial sales, other brands and generics ($m) Japan, 2007-2017
- Figure 16: Community antibacterial class sales dynamics in the 5EU, 2007 and 2017
- Figure 17: Leading branded community antibacterial sales, other brands and generics ($m) in the 5EU, 2007-2017
- Figure 18: Country level variations in antibiotic value sales by drug class/category in the 5EU, 2007
- Figure 19: Country level variations in antibiotic value sales by drug class/category in the 5EU, 2007
- Figure 20: Country level variations in antibiotic value sales per capita by drug class/category and region in the 5EU, 2007
- Figure 21: Country level variations in antibiotic volume sales per capita by drug class/category and region in the 5EU, 2007
- Figure 22: Country level variations in antibiotic value sales per capita, branded versus generic product averages in the 5EU, 2007
- Figure 23: Country level variations in antibiotic volume sales per capita, branded versus generic product averages in the 5EU, 2007
- Figure 24: Community antibacterial class sales dynamics in France, 2007 and 2017
- Figure 25: Leading branded community antibacterial sales, other brands and generics ($m) in France, 2007-2017
- Figure 26: Community antibacterial class sales dynamics in Germany, 2007 and 2017
- Figure 27: Leading branded community antibacterial sales, other brands and generics ($m) in Germany, 2007-2017
- Figure 28: Community antibacterial class sales dynamics in Italy, 2007 and 2017
- Figure 29: Leading branded community antibacterial sales, other brands and generics ($m) in Italy, 2007-2017
- Figure 30: Community antibacterial class sales dynamics in Spain, 2007 and 2017
- Figure 31: Leading branded community antibacterial sales, other brands and generics ($m) in Spain, 2007-2017
- Figure 32: Community antibacterial class sales dynamics in the UK, 2007 and 2017
- Figure 33: Leading branded community antibacterial sales, other brands and generics ($m) in the UK, 2007-2017
- Figure 34: Leading branded community antibacterial sales ($m) in the seven major markets, 2003-07
- Figure 35: Leading branded community antibacterial sales ($m) in the seven major markets, 2007-2017
- Figure 36: Patient care pathways in community bacterial infections, 2008
- Figure 37: Correlations between antibacterial consumption and resistance
- Figure 38: Site of infection, source of infection and antibiotic choices
- Figure 39: Community antibiotic sales ($m) of key branded and generic cephalosporins in the seven major markets, 2003 2017
- Figure 40: Cefzon sales ($m) in the community antibiotics market by country in the seven major markets, 2007 2017
- Figure 41: Spectracef sales ($m) in the community antibiotics market by country in the seven major markets, 2007 2017
- Figure 42: Maxipime sales ($m) in the community antibiotics market by country in the seven major markets, 2007 2017
- Figure 43: Community antibiotic sales ($m) of key branded and generic fluoroquinolones in the seven major markets, 2003 2017
- Figure 44: Cravit sales ($m) in the community antibiotics market by country in the seven major markets, 2007 2017
- Figure 45: Avelox sales ($m) in the community antibiotics market by country in the seven major markets, 2007 2017
- Figure 46: Community antibiotic sales ($m) of key branded and generic macrolides and similar antibiotics in the seven major markets, 2003 2017
- Figure 47: Biaxin sales ($m) in the community antibiotics market by country in the seven major markets, 2007 2017
- Figure 48: Ketek sales ($m) in the community antibiotics market by country in the seven major markets, 2007 2017
- Figure 49: Community antibiotic sales ($m) of key branded and generic antibiotics from other classes in the seven major markets, 2003 2017
- Figure 50: Cubicin sales ($m) in the community antibiotics market by country in the seven major markets, 2007 2017
- Figure 51: Primaxin sales ($m) in the community antibiotics market by country in the seven major markets, 2007 2017
- Figure 52: Zyvox sales ($m) in the community antibiotics market by country in the seven major markets, 2007 2017
- Figure 53: Merrem sales ($m) in the community antibiotics market by country in the seven major markets, 2007 2017
- Figure 54: Tazocin sales ($m) in the community antibiotics market by country in the seven major markets, 2007 2017