Commercial Insight: Antidiabetics Patent expiries and cost containment initiatives balanced by pipeline products

Publication Date	August 2007
Publisher	Datamonitor
Product Type	Report
Pages	233
ISBN Number	not applicable
Product Code	DAT07188

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Summary

Introduction

The diabetes epidemic has contributed in the growth of the antidiabetics market the past few years. Since the prevalence of diabetes continues to increase, the market will further expand. While early therapy is dominated by generically available agents, and the later stages by insulin, the number of unmet needs in the diabetes treatment, warrants that novel agents will have a place in the market.

Scope

Country specific event-driven sales forecasts for the period 2007-16 for the US, Japan, France, Germany, Italy, Spain and the UK.
Patient potential and prescribing trends overview of the antidiabetics market based on historical sales data and future key events.
Profiles of the country and market specific issues which will impact future sales in the market including generic erosion and class switching.
Case studies presenting safety issues and the role that novel agents are likely to play in the balance of issues and opportunities in the market

Highlights

Insulin class dominates the market with a 40.9% share of its overall seven major market sales and the US market accounts for 66% of the value of the seven major markets with 13% CAGR 200306.

Although insulin, sulfonylureas and biguanides remain the highest selling drug classes (number of units sold) in the antidiabetics market a strong need for new drugs with fewer side effects and better tolerability have created a potential niche for companies to compete for.

Patients with Type 2 diabetes who are poorly controlled with metformin and/or sulfonylureas are subjects to second-line therapy with TZDs. For a number of years this class was in dispute due to its safety concerns.

Reasons to Purchase

Quantify future size and scope of the diabetes market and potential for new products
Analyze options to expand commercial potential through pursuit of new indications
Formulate successful launch strategies in a highly competitive market

Content

About The Cardiovascular Pharmaceutical Analysis Team
Chapter 1 Executive Summary
- Objective Of The Analysis
- Datamonitor Insight Into The Antidiabetics Market
- Contributing Experts
- Related Reports
- Upcoming Reports
Chapter 2 Market Definition And Overview
- Market Definition For This Report
- Current Market Situation
- National Markets
- The Insulin Market In The Seven Major Markets
- Lantus
- Novorapid/Novolog
- Humalog
- Novolin
- Humulin
- Levemir
- Apidra
- Exubera
- Outlook
- The Oral Antidiabetics (Oads) Market
- Thiazolidinediones
- Actos
- Avandia
- Sulfonylureas
- Biguanides
- Prandial Glucose Regulators (Pgrs)
- Alpha-Glucosidase Inhibitors (Agis)
- Outlook
- Incretin Mimetics
- Exenatide
- Sitagliptin
- Outlook
Chapter 3 Country Market Assessments
- Current And Future Opportunities And Threats In The Antidiabetics Market
- Seven Major Markets Opportunities And Threats
- Opportunities
- Threats
- Us: Current Market Assessment
Overview
- Us Opportunities
- Us Threats
- Japan: Current Market Assessment
Overview
- Japan Opportunities
- Japan Threats
- Eu5: Current Market Assessment
Overview
- Eu5: Opportunities And Threats
- Eu5 Opportunities
- Eu5 Threats
- France: Current Market Assessment
Overview
- France: Opportunities And Threats
- France Opportunities
- France Threats
- Germany: Current Market Assessment
Overview
- Germany: Opportunities And Threats
- Germany Opportunities
- Germany Threats
- Italy: Current Market Assessment
Overview
- Italy: Opportunities And Threats
- Italy Opportunities
- Italy Threats
- Spain: Current Market Assessment
Overview
- Spain: Opportunities And Threats
- Spain Opportunities
- Spain Threats
- Uk: Current Market Assessment
Overview
- Uk: Opportunities And Threats
- Uk Opportunities
- Uk Threats
- Summary Of Environmental Issues Affecting The Antidiabetic Market Size
Chapter 4 Forecast Analysis
- Assumptions And Events
- Ongoing Trends
- Increasing Market Size
- Trial Results
Record
- Chicago And Periscope
- Dream
Accord
- Adopt
Navigator
- New Product Launches
- Byetta Lar
- Liraglutide (Nn-2211)
- Januvia (Sitagliptin, Mk-0431)
- Galvus (Vildagliptin, Laf-237)
- Saxagliptin
- Metaglidasen (Mbx-102)
- Air Inhalable Insulin
- Aerx-Idms Inhalable Insulin
- Technosphere Inhalable Insulin
- Patent Expiries
- Limitations Of Data
- Forecasts
Chapter 5 Commercial Impact And Lifecycle Management: Case Studies
- Introduction
- Case Study 1 - The Avandia Story: Mass Hysteria Or Common Sense?
- Introduction
- History Of Tzds And Their Contribution To Diabetes Treatment
- Avandia Milestones
- The Meta-Analysis
- The Interim Data From Record
- The Oversight And Reform Committee Hearing
- Fda Vs. Emea - Did Fda Drop The Ball?
- Fda Restructuring - The True Political Motive?
- Avandia Sales Analysis
- Views Of Key Opinion Leaders
- Potential Outcomes
- Conclusion: Following The Meeting
- Case Study 2 - Dpp-4s' Market Dynamics Affected By The Delay Of Galvus Launch
- Introduction
- Incretin Mimetics Overview
- Dpp-4 Inhibitors
- Problems With Galvus And Its Milestones
- How Did Merck Leapfrog Novartis
- Analysis Of Januvia Sales And Its Success
- Januvia Versus Galvus
- Caution Required
- Future Scenarios For The Dpp-4 Market
- Conclusion
Appendix A - Major Brand Key Facts
- Insulin Market Data
- Humulin
- Humalog
- Novolin
- Novorapid/Novolog
- Lantus
- Tzds Market Data
- Actos
- Avandia
- Sulfonylureas Market Data
- Amaryl
- Glucotrol Xl
- Biguanide Market Data
- Glucophage And Glucophage Xr
Appendix B
- Bibliography
- Epidemiology
- Clinical Trial Data
- Report Methodology
- Standard Units
- Japanese Market Data
Appendix C - Market Forecast Data
- Market Forecast, Us
- Market Forecast, Japan
- Market Forecast, France
- Market Forecast, Germany
- Market Forecast, Italy
- Market Forecast, Spain
- Market Forecast, Uk
- About The Cardiovascular Disease Analysis Team
- Disclaimer
List Of Tables
- Table 1: Seven Major Market Sales In The Antidiabetic Market By Drug Class, 2006
- Table 2: Seven Major Market Sales Of The Leading Branded Insulin Families, 2005-06
- Table 3: Seven Major Market Sales Of The Leading Branded Tzds, 2005-06
- Table 4: Seven Major Market Sales Of The Leading Branded Sulfonylureas, 2005-06
- Table 5: Seven Major Market Sales Of The Leading Branded Biguanide, 2005-06
- Table 6: Seven Major Market Sales Of The Leading Branded Pgrs, 2005-06
- Table 7: Seven Major Market Sales Of The Leading Branded Agis, 2005-06
- Table 8: Seven Major Market Sales Of The Leading Branded Incretin Mimetics, 2005-06
- Table 9: Prevalence Of Obesity In The Seven Major Markets By Age Group (000s), 2005
- Table 10: Us Sales And Growth Of Drug Classes In The Antidiabetics Market, 2006
- Table 11: Five Generics Companies Are Among The Top 10 Companies In Terms Of Prescriptions Filled Under Medicare Part D, 2006
- Table 12: Japan Sales And Growth Of Drug Classes In The Antidiabetics Market, 2006
- Table 13: Eu5 Sales And Growth Of Drug Classes In The Antidiabetics Market, 2006
- Table 14: French Sales And Growth Of Drug Classes In The Antidiabetics Market, 2006
- Table 15: Germany Sales And Growth Of Drug Classes In The Antidiabetics Market, 2006
- Table 16: Italy Sales And Growth Of Drug Classes In The Antidiabetics Market, 2006
- Table 17: Spanish Sales And Growth Of Drug Classes In The Antidiabetics Market, 2006
- Table 18: Uk Sales And Growth Of Drug Classes In The Antidiabetics Market, 2006
- Table 19: The Ten Clinical Areas Of The Quality Outcome Framework, As Outlined In The Gms Contract, 2005
- Table 20: Avandia's Historical Timeline
- Table 21: Interim Record Data Summary
- Table 22: Timeline Of Merck's Development Of Januvia
- Table 23: Humulin: Key Facts
- Table 24: Humalog: Key Facts
- Table 25: Novolin: Key Facts
- Table 26: Novolog: Key Facts
- Table 27: Lantus: Key Facts
- Table 28: Actos: Key Facts
- Table 29: Avandia: Key Facts
- Table 30: Amaryl: Key Facts
- Table 31: Glucotrol Xl: Key Facts
- Table 32: Glucophage And Glucophage Xr: Key Facts
List Of Figures
- Figure 1: Sales And Growth For Antidiabetic Drug Classes In The Seven Major Markets, 2005-06
- Figure 2: Share Of Antidiabetics Market Represented By Each Of The Seven Major Markets, 2006
- Figure 3: Pioglitazone's Effects On Triglyceride And Hdl Cholesterol Levels
- Figure 4: Population In Seven Major Markets Aged 20-39, 2003 And 2015 And Prevalence Of Diabetes In This Age Group, 2003
- Figure 5: Population In Seven Major Markets Aged 40-59, 2003 And 2015 And Prevalence Of Diabetes In This Age Group, 2003
- Figure 6: Population In Seven Major Markets Aged 60-79, 2003 And 2015 And Prevalence Of Diabetes In This Age Group, 2003
- Figure 7: The Growing Prevalence Of Obesity In The Us, 2005-2015
- Figure 8: Generalized Distribution Chain For Parallel Traded Pharmaceutical Products
- Figure 9: Annual Us Sales Of The Antidiabetic Drug Classes, 2003-06
- Figure 10: More Than Half Of All Prescriptions Dispensed In The Us Are Generics, 1994-2005
- Figure 11: Generic Companies Dominate The Us Pharmaceutical Market In Terms Of Prescriptions
- Figure 12: Generic Use In The Us Is Promoted Through A Number Of Channels
- Figure 13: The Tiered Co-Payment System Will Lead To Greater Use Of Generics
- Figure 14: Annual Japan Sales Of The Antidiabetic Drug Classes, 2003-06
- Figure 15: The Japanese Generic Market Is Underdeveloped Because Of A Number Of Factors
- Figure 16: Annual Eu5 Sales Of The Antidiabetic Drug Classes, 2003-06
- Figure 17: Annual French Sales Of The Antidiabetic Drug Classes, 2003-06
- Figure 18: Annual German Sales Of The Antidiabetic Drug Classes, 2003-06
- Figure 19: A Fall In Reference Prices Is Likely To Lead To Greater Use Of Generics
- Figure 20: Annual Italian Sales Of The Antidiabetic Drug Classes, 2003-06
- Figure 21: Annual Spanish Sales Of The Antidiabetic Drug Classes, 2003-06
- Figure 22: Although Generic Sales And Volume Use Have Increased Over The Last 10 Years, The Generics Market Only Accounts For A Small Proportion Of The Spanish Pharmaceutical Market
- Figure 23: Annual Uk Sales Of The Antidiabetic Drug Classes, 2003-06
- Figure 24: Summary Of Opportunities And Threats Affecting The Diabetes Markets In The Seven Major Pharmaceutical Markets And The Eu, 2006
- Figure 25: Summary Of Opportunities And Threats Affecting The Diabetes Markets In The Us And Japan 2006
- Figure 26: Summary Of Country-Specific Opportunities And Threats Affecting The Diabetes Market In The Eu5, 2006
- Figure 27: Patent Expiry Dates Used In Forecasting Antidiabetics Market, 2007-2016
- Figure 28: Avandia Sales Forecast Across The Seven Major Markets, 2006-2016
- Figure 29: Mechanism Of Action Of Glp-1 Agonists
- Figure 30: Mechanism Of Action Of Dpp-4 Inhibitors
- Figure 31: Januvia Sales Forecast Across The Seven Major Markets, 2006-2016