Pipeline and Commercial Insight: Schizophrenia - Second generation depots protect market value

Publication Date	October 2008
Publisher	Datamonitor
Product Type	Report
Pages	277
ISBN Number	not applicable
Product Code	DAT13806

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Summary

Introduction

Schizophrenia is a chronic and severe mental health disorder affecting around 4.6 million schizophrenia sufferers across the seven major markets. Currently led by oral branded atypical antipsychotics, the schizophrenia market will undergo some big changes over the period 20082017. Prospective players can expect to face stiff competition from generic versions of all currently branded drugs.

Scope

Analysis of key marketed brands and late-stage pipeline drugs.
Schizophrenia-specific drug sales volume and value forecasts to 2017 in the US, Japan, and five major European markets.
Identification of future market events that are expected to affect schizophrenia drug revenues.
Analysis of patient potential, unmet needs and clinical trial design in schizophrenia.

Highlights

The schizophrenia market is anticipated to grow slowly until 2011 to reach $4.3 billion across the 7MM. Despite the launch of a few pipeline drugs, the market will decline thereafter owing to the widespread launch of generic risperidone by the end of 2008, followed by generic versions of all currently marketed schizophrenia drugs from 2011 onwards.

The increasing uptake of long-acting injectable (depot) atypical antipsychotics is expected to partially alleviate the branded schizophrenia sales decline. Positive effects on patient compliance will stimulate sales of these formulations which are forecast to reach a combined value of $1.2 billion by 2013.

The schizophrenia late-stage pipeline lacks innovation. Sales of most oral investigational drugs will be limited by extensive generic competition across the 7MM. However, drugs with novel mechanism of action could prove commercially successful, demanding a price premium and offering alternative treatments for refractory patients.

Reasons to Purchase

Understand the current schizophrenia market dynamics and how they are expected to evolve out to 2017.
Benchmark key late-stage pipeline schizophrenia compounds against the current market leading brands.
Understand unmet needs and opportunities in the schizophrenia market based on key opinion leader comments.

Content

About Datamonitor Healthcare
- About The Central Nervous System Pharmaceutical Analysis Team
Chapter 1 Executive Summary
- Scope Of The Analysis
- Datamonitor Insight Into The Schizophrenia Market
- Contributing Experts
- Related Reports
- Upcoming Reports
Chapter 2 Patient Potential
- Definition Of Schizophrenia
- Classification Of Schizophrenia
- Dsm-Iv Defined Symptoms Of Schizophrenia
- A - Characteristic Symptoms
- B - Social/Occupational Dysfunction
- C - Duration
- D - Schizoaffective And Mood Disorder Exclusion
- E - Substance/General Medical Condition Exclusion
- F - Relationship To A Pervasive Developmental Disorder
- Characterization Of Symptoms
- Array Of Symptoms Characterize The Disorder
- Symptoms Subdivided Into Positive And Negative
- Ongoing Discussion Of Symptom Categories
- Epidemiology Of Schizophrenia
- Schizophrenia Affects Approximately 0.6% Of The Population
- Etiology And Course Of Schizophrenia
- Age Of Onset
- Risk Factors
- Co-Morbidities Of Schizophrenia
- Anxiety Is The Most Prevalent Co-Morbidity Of Schizophrenia
- Unmet Needs In Schizophrenia
- Improving Patient Compliance
- Innovative Solutions For Partial Responders Or Refractory Patients
- Improving Cognitive Functioning
- Treating Negative Symptoms
- Reducing Adverse Events
Chapter 3 Market Overview
- Seven Major Markets
- Current Market Assessment
- Sales Revenue Is Dominated By Atypical Antipsychotics
- Typical Antipsychotics Still Constitute A Significant Share Of The Total Volume Of Antipsychotic Prescriptions
- Comparison Between Regions
- Future Market Assessment
- Market Value Stagnation Expected Over Forecast Period
- Genericization Becomes A Major Issue In The Schizophrenia Market
- Market Value Is Sustained Through Uptake Of Depot Atypicals
- Opportunities And Threats
- Opportunities
- Threats
Chapter 4 Brand Dynamics
- Overview Of Competitive Landscape
- Lack Of Gold Standard Antipsychotic
- Leading Brands And Their Evolution
- Impact Of Generics On The Current Leading Companies
- Oral Pipeline Drugs Offer Limited Competition For The Current Market Leaders
- Drivers Of Brand Choice
- Zyprexa
- Zypadhera: Olanzapine Depot In Pre-Registration
- Drug Profile
- Product Positioning
- Marketing Mix
- Brand Forecast To 2017
- Zyprexa: Market Leader Over The Last 4 Years 2004-07
- Zyprexa's Sales Widely Reduced By Market Genericization From 2008
- Zyprexa's Sales Affected By Pipeline Drug Launch
- Strategic Recommendations
- Risperdal
- Drug Profile
- Product Positioning
- Marketing Mix
- Brand Forecast To 2017
- Risperdal Second Leading Brand In 2007
- Risperdal Oral Widely Affected By Risperidone Generics
- Strategic Recommendations
- Risperdal Consta
- Drug Profile
- Product Positioning
- Marketing Mix
- Brand Forecast To 2017
- Historical Trends And Geographic Expansion
- Risperdal Consta Sales Widely Impacted By Second Generation Depot's
- Risperdal Consta Generics
- Strategic Recommendations
- Abilify
- Drug Profile
- Product Positioning
- Marketing Mix
- Brand Forecast To 2017
- Strong Abilify Sales Growth From 2004 To 2007
- Abilify Forecast Sales Revenue Benefits From A Late Genericization
- Strategic Recommendations
- Seroquel
- Drug Profile
- Product Positioning
- Marketing Mix
- Brand Forecast To 2017
- Seroquel Xr Likely To Relieve Seroquel In Schizophrenia Treatment
- Quetiapine Generics Are Expected To Threaten Both Version Sales
- Strategic Recommendations
- Geodon
- Drug Profile
- Product Positioning
- Marketing Mix
- Brand Forecast To 2017
- Geodon's Moderate Success Over The Past 4 Years Will Continue Until 2012
- Ziprasidone Generics Arrival In 2012: The Major Event Likely To Impact Geodon's Sales Revenue
- Strategic Recommendations
- Invega
- Drug Profile
- Product Positioning
- Marketing Mix
- Brand Forecast To 2017
- Strategic Recommendations
- Other Recently Launched Atypical Antipsychotics
- Serdolect
- Serdolect History
- Brand Forecast To 2017
- Lonasen
- Brand Forecast To 2017
Chapter 5 Pipeline Overview And Classification
- Pipeline Overview
- Classification Of Pipeline Products
- Serotonergic And Dopaminergic Receptor Antipsychotics
- Others
- Glutamate (Ampa And Nmda) And Glycine Receptor Modulators
- Muscarinic M1 Receptor Agonist
- Alpha 2 Adrenoceptor Antagonist
- Nicotinic Acetylcholine Receptor Modulators
Chapter 6 Late Stage Drug Analysis And Forecasts
- Key Late Stage Pipeline Summary
- Comparative Forecasts
- Comparative Drug Assessment
- Definition Of Current Comparator Therapy
- Zyprexa: Leading Brand On The Schizophrenia Market
- Drugs In Pre-Registration
- Zypadhera (Olanzapine Depot)
- Drug Overview
- Forecasts To 2017
- Datamonitor Drug Assessment Summary
- Marketing Factors
- Patient Potential
- Satisfaction Of Unmet Needs
- Clinical Trial Data
- Paliperidone Palmitate Depot
- Drug Overview
- Forecasts To 2017
- Datamonitor Drug Assessment Summary
- Marketing Factors
- Patient Potential
- Satisfaction Of Unmet Needs
- Clinical Trial Data
- Asenapine
- Drug Overview
- Forecasts To 2017
- Datamonitor Drug Assessment Summary
- Marketing Factors
- Patient Potential
- Satisfaction Of Unmet Needs
- Clinical Trial Data
- Drugs In Phase Iii Clinical Trial
- Bifeprunox
- Drug Overview
- Forecasts To 2017
- Marketing Factors
- Patient Potential
- Satisfaction Of Unmet Needs
- Clinical Trial Data
- Lurasidone
- Drug Overview
- Forecasts To 2017
- Datamonitor Drug Assessment Summary
- Marketing Factors
- Patient Potential
- Satisfaction Of Unmet Needs
- Clinical Trial Data
- Staccato Loxapine (Az-004)
- Drug Overview
- Forecasts To 2017
- Datamonitor Drug Assessment Summary
- Marketing Factors
- Patient Potential
- Satisfaction Of Unmet Needs
- Clinical Trial Data
- Drugs In Phase Ii Clinical Trial
- Ly-2140023
- Drug Overview
- Forecast To 2017
- Datamonitor Drug Assessment
- Marketing Factor
- Patient Potential
- Satisfaction Of Unmet Needs
- Clinical Trial Data
- Unforecasted Late-Stage Drug
- Iloperidone
- Drug Overview
- Forecasts To 2017
- Marketing Factors
- Patient Potential
- Satisfaction Of Unmet Needs
- Clinical Trial Data For Iloperidone Oral
- Clinical Trial Data For Iloperidone Depot
- Other Unforecasted Drugs
- Pimavanserin Tartrate (Acp-103)
- Drug Overview
- Clinical Trial Data
- Bl-1020
- Drug Overview
- Clinical Trial Data
- Rgh-188 Cariprazine
- Drug Overview
- Clinical Trial Data
- Erythropoietin - Ntx-028
- Drug Overview
- Clinical Trial Data
- Sam-101
- Drug Overview
- Clinical Trial Data
- Preclinical Study Comparing Minocycline And Haloperidol
- Sabcomeline
- Drug Overview
- Pf-02545920
- Drug Overview
- Clinical Trial Data
- Pnb-02
- Drug Overview
- Bibliography
- Journal Papers, Books, And Conference Abstracts
- Websites
- Datamonitor Reports
- Annual Reports
Appendix A - Market Assumptions
- New Product Launches
- Patent Expiries
- Data Definitions, Limitations And Assumptions
- Standard Units
- Japanese Market Data
- Derivation Of Sales Forecasts And Pricing Trends
- Indication-Specific Sales Methodology
- Schizophrenia-Specific Sales Calculations
- Icd-10 Codes Used To Define Current Schizophrenia Market
- Diagnosis Values For Key Brands
- Datamonitor Drug Assessment Summary
- Forecast Methodology
Appendix B
- Contributing Experts
- About Datamonitor
- About Datamonitor Healthcare
- Datamonitor Healthcare's Therapy Area Capabilities
- About The Disease Analysis Team
- Disclaimer
List Of Tables
- Table 1: Diagnostic Criteria For Schizophrenia And Its Subtypes
- Table 2: Prevalence Studies Of Schizophrenia
- Table 3: Prevalence Of Schizophrenia In The Seven Major Markets, 2008
- Table 4: Prevalence Of Patients With Schizophrenia Exhibiting Co-Morbid Psychiatric Disorders Across The Us, Eu And Japan (%), 2005
- Figure 3: Unmet Needs In Schizophrenia, 2008
- Table 5: Sales Forecasts For Schizophrenia Market In The Seven Major Markets ($M), 2007-2017
- Table 6: Key Branded Atypical Antipsychotics Patent's Expiry Dates Across The Us, The 5eu And Japan (1/2)
- Table 7: Summary Of Opportunities And Threats In The Schizophrenia Market Across The Seven Major Markets, 2008
- Table 8: Leading Branded Drug Sales Revenue ($M) For Schizophrenia In The Seven Major Markets, 2007 And 2017
- Table 9: Key Products In Late-Stage R&d Pipeline For Schizophrenia, 2008
- Table 10: Comparison Of Leading Brands For Schizophrenia, 2008
- Table 11: Zyprexa - Drug Profile, 2008
- Table 12: Impacting Factors On Zyprexa Revenues, 2007-2017
- Table 13: Risperdal - Drug Profile, 2008
- Table 14: Impacting Factors On Risperdal Oral Revenues, 2007-2017
- Table 15: Risperdal Consta - Drug Profile, 2008
- Table 16: Factors Impacting On Risperdal Consta Revenues, 2007-2017
- Table 17: Abilify - Drug Profile, 2008
- Table 18: Impacting Factors On Abilify Revenues, 2007-2017
- Table 19: Seroquel - Drug Profile, 2008
- Table 20: Impacting Factors On Seroquel's Revenues, 2007-2017
- Table 21: Geodon - Drug Profile, 2008
- Table 22: Impacting Factors On Geodon's Revenues, 2007-2017
- Table 23: Invega - Drug Profile, 2008
- Table 24: Impacting Factors On Invega Revenues, 2007-2017
- Table 25: Number Of Key Schizophrenia Drugs By Type Of Mechanism Of Action And Phase Of Development, 2008
- Table 26: Pipeline Drugs In Pre-Registration For The Treatment Of Schizophrenia, 2008
- Table 27: Pipeline Drugs In Phase Iii Development For The Treatment Of Schizophrenia, 2008
- Table 28: Pipeline Drugs In Phase Ii Development For The Treatment Of Schizophrenia, 2008
- Table 29: Pipeline Drugs In Phase Ii Development For The Treatment Of Cognitive Disorder Associated With Schizophrenia, 2008
- Table 30: Eli Lilly's Zyprexa: Key Facts
- Table 31: Impacting Factors On Zypadhera Sales Revenue, 2009-2017
- Table 32: Satisfaction Of Unmet Needs Assessment - Zypadhera (Olanzapine Depot), 2008
- Table 33: Clinical Trial Summary - Zypadhera
- Table 34: Impacting Factors On Paliperidone Palmitate Revenues, 2009-2017
- Table 35: Comparison Of Paliperidone Palmitate Depot Versus Risperdal Consta
- Table 36: Satisfaction Of Unmet Needs Assessment - Paliperidone Palmitate Depot, 2008
- Table 37: Clinical Trial Summary - Paliperidone Palmitate
- Table 38: Ongoing Phase Iii Clinical Trial Summary - Paliperidone Palmitate
- Table 39: Impacting Factors On Asenapine Revenues, 2009-2017
- Table 40: Satisfaction Of Unmet Needs Assessment - Asenapine, 2008
- Table 41: Phase Iii Clinical Trial Summary - Asenapine, 2008
- Table 42: Phase I And Ii Clinical Trial Summary - Asenapine, 2008
- Table 43: Satisfaction Of Unmet Needs Assessment - Bifeprunox, 2008
- Table 44: Completed Clinical Trial Summary - Bifeprunox (Du127090)
- Table 45: Ongoing Clinical Trial Summary - Bifeprunox
- Table 46: Impacting Factors On Lurasidone Revenues, 2011-2017
- Table 47: Satisfaction Of Unmet Needs Assessment - Lurasidone, 2008
- Table 48: Ongoing Clinical Trial Summary Lurasidone
- Table 49: Completed Clinical Trial Summary Lurasidone
- Table 50: Satisfaction Of Unmet Needs Assessment - Staccato Loxapine, 2008
- Table 51: Clinical Trial Summary - Staccato Loxapine, Az-004
- Table 52: Impacting Factors On Ly-2140023revenues, 2014-17
- Table 53: Satisfaction Of Unmet Needs Assessment - Ly-2140023, 2008
- Table 54: Clinical Trial Summary - Ly-2140023
- Table 55: Satisfaction Of Unmet Needs Assessment - Iloperidone, 2008
- Table 56: Phase Iii Clinical Trial Summary - Iloperidone Oral
- Table 57: Clinical Trial Summary - Pimavanserin Tartrate (Acp-103)
- Table 58: Phase I Clinical Trial Summary - Bl-1020
- Table 59: Phase Ii Clinical Trial Summary - Bl-1020
- Table 60: Clinical Trial Summary - Rgh-188 (Cariprazine)
- Table 61: Clinical Trial Summary - Sam-101
- Table 62: Clinical Trial Summary - Pf-254592
- Table 63: Datamonitor's Launch Dates For Schizophrenia Products Across The Us, 5eu And Japan, 2008-2017
- Table 64: Key Branded Atypical Antipsychotics Patent's Expiry Dates Across The Us, The 5eu And Japan (1/2)
- Table 65: Icd-10 And Dsm-Iv Codes For Schizophrenia
- Table 66: Schizophrenia Diagnosis Values (%) For Key Brands Sales ($) In The Us, 2005-07
- Table 67: Datamonitor Drug Assessment Parameters
List Of Figures
- Figure 1: Schizophrenia-Specific Sales Revenue Distribution By Drug Type Across The Seven Major Markets ($M), 2004-2017
- Figure 2: Datamonitor Drug Competitive Positioning Analysis Of Pipeline Drugs In Development For Schizophrenia In The Seven Major Markets Over The Forecast Period, 2008-2017
- Figure 4: Schizophrenia Sales Revenue Distribution Between Typical And Atypical Antipsychotics In The Us, 5eu And Japan ($M), 2004-07
- Figure 5: Schizophrenia Sales Volume Distribution Between Typical And Atypical Antipsychotics (Standard Units Million) In The Us, 5eu And Japan, 2004-07
- Figure 6: Schizophrenia Sales Revenue ($M) In The Us, 5eu And Japan, 2004-07
- Figure 7: Schizophrenia Sales Volume (Standard Units Million; Sum) In The Us And 5eu, 2004-07
- Figure 8: Schizophrenia Sales Revenue Distribution Between Atypical Antipsychotics Brands And Conventional Antipsychotics In The Us, 5eu And Japan ($M), 2007
- Figure 9: Key Events Impacting The Schizophrenia Market, 2004-08
- Figure 10: Schizophrenia-Specific Sales Revenue Distribution By Drug Type Across The Seven Major Markets ($M), 2004-2017
- Figure 11: Schizophrenia-Specific Sales Volume Distribution By Drug Type Across The Seven Major Markets (Sum), 2004-2017
- Figure 12: Market Share Of Drug Type For Schizophrenia Across The Seven Major Markets, 2007 And 2017
- Figure 13: Key Events Impacting The Schizophrenia Market, 2007-2017
- Figure 14: Drivers Of Brand Choice For The Treatment Of Schizophrenia, 2008
- Figure 15: Zyprexa All-Indication Promotional Spend In The Us And 5eu ($M), 2005-07
- Figure 16: The Effect Of Patent Expiry On The Sales Of Eli Lilly's Zyprexa (Olanzapine) For Schizophrenia In The Seven Major Markets ($M), 2004-2017
- Figure 17: Risperdal Oral All-Indication Promotional Spend ($M) In The Us And 5eu, 2005-07
- Figure 18: The Effect Of Patent Expiry On The Sales Of Johnson & Johnson's Risperdal Oral (Risperidone) For Schizophrenia In The Seven Major Markets ($M), 2004-2017
- Figure 19: Risperdal Consta All-Indication Promotional Spend In The Us And 5eu ($M), 2005-07
- Figure 20: The Effect Of Patent Expiry And Paliperidone Palmitate Depot Launch On The Sales Of Johnson & Johnson's Risperdal Consta (Risperidone Depot) For Schizophrenia In The Seven Major Markets ($M), 2004-2017
- Figure 21: Abilify All-Indication Promotional Spend In The Us And 5eu ($M), 2005-07
- Figure 22: The Effect Of Patent Expiry On The Sales Of Otsuka/Bristol-Myers Squibb's Abilify (Aripiprazole) For Schizophrenia In The Seven Major Markets ($M), 2004-2017
- Figure 23: Seroquel Franchise All-Indication Promotional Spend In The Us And 5eu ($M), 2005-07
- Figure 24: Seroquel All-Indication Promotional Expenses By Channel In The Us And 5eu ($M), 2007
- Figure 25: The Effect Of The Extended Release Version And Patent Expiry On The Sales Of Astrazeneca's Seroquel (Quetiapine) For Schizophrenia In The Seven Major Markets ($M), 2004-2017
- Figure 26: Geodon All-Indication Promotional Spend In The Us And 5eu ($M), 2005-07
- Figure 27: The Effect Of Patent Expiry On The Sales Of Pfizer's Geodon (Ziprasidone) For Schizophrenia In The Seven Major Markets ($M), 2004-2017
- Figure 28: Invega All-Indication Promotional Spend In The Us And 5eu ($M), 2005-07
- Figure 29: The Effect Of Patent Expiry On The Sales Of Johnson & Johnson's Invega (Paliperidone) For Schizophrenia In The Seven Major Markets ($M), 2004-2017
- Figure 30: The Effect Of Us Launch And Patent Expiry On The Sales Of Lundbeck's Serdolect For Schizophrenia In The 7mm ($M), 2004-2017
- Figure 31: Forecast Sales Of Dainippon-Sumitomo's Lonasen For Schizophrenia In The 7mm ($M), 2004-2017
- Figure 32: Comparative Schizophrenia-Specific Sales ($M) Forecast For Key Late-Stage Pipeline Drugs In The Seven Major Markets, 2008-2017
- Figure 33: Datamonitor Drug Assessment Summary Of Pipeline Drugs In Development For Schizophrenia Across The Seven Major Markets,2008-2017
- Figure 34: Sales Forecast For Zypadhera In Schizophrenia To 2017 Across The Seven Major Markets
- Figure 35: Eli Lilly's Schizophrenia Sales Revenue Across The Seven Major Markets, 2004-2017
- Figure 36: Datamonitor's Competitive Positioning Analysis Of Zypadhera In Schizophrenia Across The Seven Major Markets, 2008-2017
- Figure 37: Sales Forecast For Paliperidone Palmitate In Schizophrenia To 2017 Across The Seven Major Markets
- Figure 38: Johnson & Johnson's Schizophrenia-Specific Sales Revenue Across The Seven Major Markets, 2004-2017
- Figure 39: Datamonitor's Competitive Positioning Analysis Of Paliperidone Palmitate In Schizophrenia Across The Seven Major Markets, 2008-2017
- Figure 40: Sales Forecast For Asenapine In Schizophrenia To 2017 Across The Seven Major Markets
- Figure 41: Datamonitor's Competitive Positioning Analysis Of Asenapine In Schizophrenia Across The Seven Major Markets, 2007-2017
- Figure 42: Sales Forecast For Bifeprunox In Schizophrenia To 2017, 5eu
- Figure 43: Datamonitor's Competitive Positioning Analysis Of Bifeprunox In Schizophrenia Across The 7mm, 2008-17
- Figure 44: Sales Forecast For Lurasidone In Schizophrenia To 2017 Across The Seven Major Markets
- Figure 45: Datamonitor's Competitive Positioning Analysis Of Lurasidone In Schizophrenia Across The Seven Major Markets, 2007-2017
- Figure 46: Staccato System - Single Dose Platform
- Figure 47: Sales Forecast For Staccato Loxapine In Schizophrenia To 2017 Across The Seven Major Markets
- Figure 48: Datamonitor's Competitive Positioning Analysis Of Staccato Loxapine In Schizophrenia Across The Seven Major Markets, 2007-2017
- Figure 49: Sales Forecast For Ly-2140023 In Schizophrenia To 2017across The Seven Major Markets
- Figure 50: Datamonitor's Competitive Positioning Analysis Of Ly-2140023 In Schizophrenia Across The Seven Major Markets, 2008-2017
- Figure 51: Datamonitor Drug Assessment Summary Of Pipeline Drugs In Development For Schizophrenia Over The Forecast Period 2008-2017 Across The Seven Major Markets