Forecast Insight: Antithrombotics - Market growth dependent on new agents

Publication Date	December 2008
Publisher	Datamonitor
Product Type	Report
Pages	73
ISBN Number	not applicable
Product Code	DAT14048

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Summary

Introduction

The antithrombotic market is expected to grow to $22 billion by 2017. The growth will mainly be due to the introduction of new agents onto the market, such as prasugrel and rivaroxaban, which will offer significant improvements over the current standards of care (Plavix (clopidogrel) and warfarin, respectively).

Scope

Description of the competitive landscape in antithrombotics across seven major markets with market definition and overview.
Event-driven updated sales forecasts for 2008-17 across the seven major markets: US, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, UK and Japan.
Analysis of major events and brand dynamics affecting the antithrombotics market.

Highlights

The antithrombotic market is demonstrating steady growth with CAGR of 8% over the 2004-07 period. The growth can be mainly attributed to the increased uptake of Plavix (clopidogrel) and Lovenox (enoxaparin) in all of the seven major markets.

The US antithrombotic market's share among the seven major markets is forecast to decrease, from 55% in 2007 to 49% in 2017, due to the 5EU volume sales being largest and the patent expiries in the EU not affecting the brand sales to the same extent as in the US.

New agents (especially rivaroxaban and prasugrel) will be successful at gaining a large share of the antithrombotic market, as they offer significant improvements over the current standards of care. In fact, two of the top three revenue-generating antithrombotics are forecast to be agents currently in development.

Reasons to Purchase

Quantify the future size and understand the background of the antithrombotics market
Understand the commercial landscape in terms of new product potential
Understand the barriers to uptake for novel antidyslipidemics.

Content

ABOUT DATAMONITOR HEALTHCARE
About the cardiovascular pharmaceutical analysis team
CHAPTER 1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
- Strategic scoping and focus
- Datamonitor insight into the disease market
- Related reports
- Upcoming related reports
CHAPTER 2 MARKET DEFINITION AND OVERVIEW
- Market definition for this report
- Countries and regions included in this report
- Seven major market assessment
- Current and future market overview
- The US market still remains the leader, but is slowly losing its dominance in the seven major markets
- ADP receptor antagonists and fractionated heparins led the market to 2007 but they will be overtaken by the pipeline agents by 2017
- Of the current top three revenue-generating brands only Lovenox will keep its position till 2017
- Rest of the world snapshot
CHAPTER 3 BRAND DYNAMICS
- Overview of competitive landscape
- Plavix (clopidogrel; Sanofi-Aventis)
- Plavix will not keep its current market domination till 2017
- Plavix - the first sign of generic battles getting tough on the EU front?
- Lovenox (enoxaparin; Sanofi-Aventis)
- Lovenox will stay at the top despite the numerous challenges ahead
- Effient (prasugrel hydrochloride; Daiichi Sankyo and Eli Lilly)
- Xarelto (rivaroxaban; Bayer and Ortho-McNeil Pharmaceutical)
- Apixaban (BMS-562247; BMS and Pfizer)
- Pradaxa/Rendix (dabigatran; Boehringer Ingelheim)
BIBLIOGRAPHY
- Journal papers
- Websites
APPENDIX A - MARKET ASSUMPTIONS
- Data definitions, limitations and assumptions
- Standard units
- Japanese market data
- Derivation of sales forecasts and pricing trends
- Forecast methodology
APPENDIX B
- Contributing experts
- Report methodology
- About Datamonitor
- About Datamonitor Healthcare
- About the Disease analysis team
- Disclaimer
- Table 1: Key events impacting the anticoagulant market, 2003-2017
- Table 2: Launch dates for new antithrombotic agents in the 5EU, 2008-2017
- Table 3: Launches in the US, 2004-17
- Table 4: Antithrombotic sales forecasts for top 10 molecules in the seven major markets ($m), 2007-2017
- Table 5: Comparison of leading branded antithrombotic sales ($m) in the seven major markets and the rest of the world (ROW), 2007
- Table 6: Key factors impacting sales of Plavix across the seven major markets, 2008-2017
- Table 7: Key factors impacting sales of Lovenox (enoxaparin), 2008-2017
- Table 8: TRITON-TIMI 38 trial in prasugrel and clopidogrel - major efficacy results
- Table 9: TRITON-TIMI 38 trial in prasugrel and clopidogrel - bleeding results
- Table 10: Key factors impacting sales of Effient (prasugrel), 2008-2017
- Table 11: Key factors impacting sales of Xarelto (rivaroxaban), 2008-2017
- Table 12: Key factors impacting sales of Apixaban, 2008-2017
- Table 13: Main results of the RE-NOVATE study
- Table 14: Key factors impacting sales of Pradaxa (dabigatran), 2008-2017
List of Figures
- Figure 1: Sales of antithrombotics in the seven major markets, 2007
- Figure 2: Antiplatelet sales ($m) by marketed versus pipeline product in the seven major markets, 2004-2017
- Figure 3: Anticoagulant sales ($m) by marketed versus pipeline product in the seven major markets, 2004-2017
- Figure 4: Antithrombotic sales ($m) by marketed versus pipeline product in the seven major markets, 2004-2017
- Figure 5: Antithrombotic sales ($m) and growth (% CAGR) by region in the US, Japan and the 5EU, 2004-2017
- Figure 6: Antiplatelet sales ($m) by drug class in the seven major markets, 2004-2017
- Figure 7: Anticoagulant sales ($m) by drug class in the seven major markets, 2004-2017
- Figure 8: Antithrombotic sales ($m) of key brands/molecules in the seven major markets, 2007 and 2017
- Figure 9: Rest of the world versus seven major market sales ($m) split in the antithrombotic market, 2007
- Figure 10: Datamonitor's sales ($m) forecast for Plavix in the seven major markets, 2007-2017
- Figure 11: Datamonitor's sales ($m) forecast for Lovenox (enoxaparin) in the seven major markets, 2007-2017
- Figure 12: Datamonitor's sales ($m) forecast for Effient (prasugrel) in the seven major markets, 2007-2017
- Figure 13: Datamonitor's sales ($m) forecast for Xarelto (rivaroxaban) in the seven major markets, 2007-2017
- Figure 14: Datamonitor's sales ($m) forecast for apixaban in the seven major markets, 2007-2017
- Figure 15: Datamonitor's sales ($m) forecast for Pradaxa in the seven major markets, 2007-2017