Pipeline Insight:Orphan Diseases in CNS - Part II
Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis
| Publication Date | December 2007 |
|---|---|
| Publisher | Datamonitor |
| Product Type | Report |
| Pages | 113 |
| ISBN Number | not applicable |
| Product Code | DAT09504 |
Summary
Introduction
The ALS market was worth $148m in 2006 across the seven major markets. With the only approved treatment for ALS, Sanofi-Aventis's Rilutek (riluzole), facing generic incursion in 201213, future growth in this market is dependent on the success of pipeline drugs.
Scope
- Scenario based analysis and forecasts of the commercial potential of the ALS market to 2016.
- Analysis of patient potential, marketing factors, commercial attractiveness and clinical attractiveness of key late-stage pipeline drugs.
- Strategic recommendations for maximizing the potential of drugs in this niche orphan disease market.
- Indication-specific sales forecasts of marketed and key pipeline drugs to 2016.
Highlights
A lack of new entrants, and the possibility of polytherapy, results in Sanofi-Aventis's Rilutek (riluzole) dominating the market until patent expiry in 2012-13 in Datamonitor's base scenario.
Orphan drug status, rapid uptake following launch, limited risk to the company's share price if drugs fail, and possible indication expansions make long-term investment in ALS a commercially viable option.
A scenario forecast based on the clinical success of rhIGF-1 (recombinant human insulin-like growth factor I) related therapies reveals a potentially lucrative market. However, with a high attrition rate of ALS Phase III clinical trials, and mixed efficacy data in Phase II, the results of currently underway studies will be pivotal.
Reasons to Purchase
- Access the lucrative potential of this underdeveloped neurodegenerative disease therapeutic market.
- Benchmark key late-stage compounds against the current leading therapy Sanofi-Aventis's Rilutek (riluzole).
- Understand the opportunities in this market based on the comments of interviewed key opinion leaders.
Content
- About Datamonitor Healthcare
- About The Cns Pharmaceutical Analysis Team
- Chapter 1 Executive Summary
- Scope of The Analysis
- Contributing Experts
- Datamonitor Insight Into The Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis Market
- Key Metrics
- Scenario Forecasts For Als Pipeline Drugs And Total Market Value
- Base Scenario
- Rhigf-I /Iplex Successful Clinical Development Scenario
- Datamonitor Pipeline Assessment Summary
- Related Reports
- Chapter 2 Market Overview
- Definition of Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis
- Segmentation of Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis
- Etiology
- Etiology of Als Is Largely Unknown
- Prognosis of Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis Sufferers
- Epidemiology
- Diagnosis And Treatment Rates
- Diagnosis of Als-Ruling Out Other Diseases First
- Treatment Rates of Als-The Uptake of Rilutek
- Market Size
- Sizing The Als Market
- Rilutek (Riluzole)
- Drug Overview
- Clinical Trial Information
- Pivotal Rilutek Efficacy Trial
- Phase Iii Survival Trial
- Efficacy Has Broadly Been Accepted
- Rilutek Sales
- Rilutek Uptake
- Unmet Need In Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis
- Clinical Trial Design
- Chapter 3 Future Market Potential
- Scenario Forecasts For Als Total Market Value
- Base Scenario
- Rhigf-I /Iplex Successful Clinical Development Scenario
- Forecast Rilutek Sales
- Little Switching Between Rilutek And New Therapies
- Rilutek Patent Protection
- Us-Patent Us-05527814 Should Protect Rilutek Until 2013
- 5eu-New Use Patent Should Protect Sanofi-Aventis Until Late 2012
- Japan-New Use Patent Should Protect Sanofi-Aventis Until Late 2012
- Chapter 4 Pipeline Overview And Dynamics
- Pipeline Overview
- Classification of Pipeline Products
- Advantages of Developing An Als Treatment
- Ninds Funding of Clinical Trials
- For Mid-To-Large Cap Companies, Als offers Little Risk
- Indication Expansion Post-Approval For Als offers Future Potential
- Orphan Drug Designation Has Additional Benefits
- Current Comparator Therapy-Rilutek
- Chapter 5 Late-Stage Drug Analysis & Forecasts
- Pipeline Comparative Forecasts
- Two Scenarios Have Been Explored
- Rhigf-I-Recombinant Human Insulin-Like Growth Factor I
- Drug Overview
- Forecasts To 2016
- Base Scenario
- Rhigf-I /Iplex Successful Clinical Development Scenario
- Datamonitor Drug Assessment Summary-Igf-1/Iplex Successful Clinical Development Scenario
- Marketing Factors-Rhigf-I /Iplex Successful Clinical Development Scenario
- Marketing of Rhigf-I Likely If The Ninds-Sponsored Trial Is Successful
- Rhigf-I Will Quickly Be Replaced With The Combination Product Iplex
- Cost of Igf-1
- Patient Potential
- Satisfaction of Unmet Needs
- Better/Alternative Drugs To Slow The Progression of The Disease
- Clinical Trial Data
- Cochrane Database Systematic Review of Rhlgf-1 For Als
- First Clinical Trial Investigating The Use of Rhigf-I In Als
- Smaller Negative Trial Investigating Rhigf-I And Als
- Ongoing Clinical Trial Program
- Iplex (Mecasermin Rinfabate, Rhigf-I/Igfbp-3)
- Drug Overview
- Forecasts To 2016
- Base Scenario
- Igf-1/Iplex Successful Clinical Development Scenario
- Datamonitor Drug Assessment Summary-Igf-1/Iplex Successful Clinical Development Scenario
- Iplex Market Penetration-Two Scenarios
- Marketing Factors
- Withdrawal From Us Short-Stature Market
- Development For Als Likely To Receive A Higher Priority
- Iplex Cost And Dose
- Iplex Market Penetration-Two Scenarios
- Patient Potential
- Satisfaction of Unmet Needs
- Clinical Trial Data
- Radicut (Edaravone, Mci-186)
- Drug Overview-Phase Iii
- Lack of Clinical Data Precludes Assessment of Commercial Potential
- Clinical Trial Data
- Ongoing Clinical Trials
- E0302 (Mecobalamin)
- Drug Overview-Phase Ii/Iii
- Forecasts To 2016-Applicable In Both Forecast Scenarios
- Datamonitor Drug Assessment Summary-Igf-1/Iplex Successful Clinical Development Scenario
- Marketing Factors
- Cost of E0302 In Japan
- Uptake of E0302 In Japan
- E0302/Mecobalamin In The Ex-Japan Markets
- Patient Potential
- Satisfaction of Unmet Needs
- Clinical Trial Data
- Ongoing Clinical Trials
- Creatine-Based Preparations
- Als-02-Creatine Monotherapy
- Drug Overview
- Marketing Factors
- Creatine Supplements Are Widely Available Over-The-Counter
- Possible Advantage of Physician Monitoring And Reimbursement
- Potential Cost And Maximum Revenue For Als-02.
- Patient Potential
- Satisfaction of Unmet Needs
- Clinical Trial Data
- Maximum Voluntary Isometric Contraction
- Double-Blind Trial of Survival And Disease Progression
- Small Trial In Advanced Als Patients Monitoring Respiratory Function
- Clinical Trial To Examine The Muscular Effects of Creatine In Als Patients
- Pilot Study Investigating Creatine's Effect On Muscle Strength In Als Patients
- Ongoing Clinical Trials
- Als-08-Creatine In Combination With Minocycline Or Celecoxib
- Minocycline Combination Shown To Be Inferior To Celecoxib Combination
- Minocycline Monotherapy Proved To Be Detrimental To Patients
- Celecoxib Combination-Non-Futile Compared To Historical Controls
- Celecoxib Monotherapy Trial-No Clear Efficacy As A Monotherapy
- Arimoclomol
- Drug Overview-Phase Ii
- Clinical Trial Data
- Multi-Center Phase Iia Clinical Trial Monitoring Safety And Tolerability of Arimoclomol
- Open-Label Extension Clinical Trial of Arimoclomol In Als
- Ongoing Clinical Trial Program
- Other Als Pipeline Drugs
- Fp-0011
- Drug Overview-Phase Ii
- Clinical Trial Data
- Cereact
- Drug Overview
- Clinical Trial Data
- Talampanel
- Copaxone (Glatiramer Acetate)
- Kns-760604 (R-Pramipexole)
- Ceftriaxone
- Coenzyme Q10
- Bibliography
- Journals
- Websites
- Datamonitor Reports
- Appendix A
- Methodology
- Datamonitor Forecast Methodology
- Product Forecasts
- Definition of A Standard Unit
- Contributing Experts
- Appendix B
- About Datamonitor
- About Datamonitor Healthcare
- Datamonitor Healthcare's Therapy Area Capabilities
- About The Disease Analysis Team
- Disclaimer
- List of Tables
- Table 1: Prevalence Estimates of Als Across The 7mm, 2007
- Table 2: Rilutek Uptake In The Three Major Market Regions, 2006
- Table 3: Cost of Rilutek (Riluzole), 2006/07
- Table 4: Key Late-Stage R&D Pipeline In Als, 2007
- Table 5: Drug Classes And Modes of Action For Key Als Pipeline Drugs
- Table 6: Estimated Cost of Rilutek, Avonex And Rhigf-I , 2006
- Table 7: Datamonitor Drug Assessment Parameters
- List of Figures
- Figure 1: Als Market Size And Forecast-Base Scenario, 2006-16
- Figure 2: Als Market Size And Forecast-Igf-1/Iplex Scenario, 2006-16
- Figure 3: Drug Assessment Summary For Als Treatments - Igf-1/Iplex Successful Clinical Development Scenario, 2007
- Figure 4: Total Als Market Sales Revenue ($M), 2003-06.
- Figure 5: Prescription Revenue Versus Prescription Volume of Rilutek And Other Drugs In The Seven Major Als Markets, 2006
- Figure 6: Rilutek Revenue By Market, 2006
- Figure 7: Key Unmet Needs In Als Treatment
- Figure 8: Als Market Size And Forecast-Base Scenario, 2003-2016
- Figure 9: Als Market Size And Forecast-Igf-1/Iplex Scenario, 2003-2016
- Figure 10: Percentage Change In Rilutek Sales In The Us Q3 2002 To Q2 2007
- Figure 11: Rilutek Sales Revenue Forecast Across The 7mm, 2007-16
- Figure 12: Origin of Als Key Late-Stage Pipeline Drugs, 2007
- Figure 13: Forecast Sales Revenue For Key Als Pipeline Drugs, 2007-16
- Figure 14: Rhigf-I Sales Revenue Forecast Based On The Rhigf-I /Iplex Successful Clinical Development Scenario, 2007-16
- Figure 15: Datamonitor's Drug Assessment Summary For Rhigf-I
- Figure 16: Iplex Base Scenario Als Sales Revenue Forecast, 2007-16.
- Figure 17: Iplex Sales Revenue Forecast, Rhigf-I/Iplex Successful Clinical Development Scenario, 2007-16
- Figure 18: Datamonitor's Drug Assessment Summary For Iplex
- Figure 19: E0302 (Mecobalamin) Als Sales Forecast, 2007-16
- Figure 20: Datamonitor's Drug Assessment Summary For E0302 (Mecobalamin)
- Figure 21: Datamonitor Drug Assessment Summary of Pipeline Molecular Targeted Therapies In Development For Hematological Malignancies, 2007
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