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Pipeline Insight:Orphan Diseases in CNS - Part II

Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis

Publication Date December 2007
Publisher Datamonitor
Product Type Report
Pages 113
ISBN Number not applicable
Product Code DAT09504
Price

£3,800.00
approximately: $6,710 | €4,818

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Summary

Introduction

The ALS market was worth $148m in 2006 across the seven major markets. With the only approved treatment for ALS, Sanofi-Aventis's Rilutek (riluzole), facing generic incursion in 201213, future growth in this market is dependent on the success of pipeline drugs.

Scope

  • Scenario based analysis and forecasts of the commercial potential of the ALS market to 2016.
  • Analysis of patient potential, marketing factors, commercial attractiveness and clinical attractiveness of key late-stage pipeline drugs.
  • Strategic recommendations for maximizing the potential of drugs in this niche orphan disease market.
  • Indication-specific sales forecasts of marketed and key pipeline drugs to 2016.

Highlights

A lack of new entrants, and the possibility of polytherapy, results in Sanofi-Aventis's Rilutek (riluzole) dominating the market until patent expiry in 2012-13 in Datamonitor's base scenario.

Orphan drug status, rapid uptake following launch, limited risk to the company's share price if drugs fail, and possible indication expansions make long-term investment in ALS a commercially viable option.

A scenario forecast based on the clinical success of rhIGF-1 (recombinant human insulin-like growth factor I) related therapies reveals a potentially lucrative market. However, with a high attrition rate of ALS Phase III clinical trials, and mixed efficacy data in Phase II, the results of currently underway studies will be pivotal.

Reasons to Purchase

  • Access the lucrative potential of this underdeveloped neurodegenerative disease therapeutic market.
  • Benchmark key late-stage compounds against the current leading therapy Sanofi-Aventis's Rilutek (riluzole).
  • Understand the opportunities in this market based on the comments of interviewed key opinion leaders.

Content

  • About Datamonitor Healthcare
    • About The Cns Pharmaceutical Analysis Team
  • Chapter 1 Executive Summary
    • Scope of The Analysis
    • Contributing Experts
    • Datamonitor Insight Into The Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis Market
    • Key Metrics
    • Scenario Forecasts For Als Pipeline Drugs And Total Market Value
    • Base Scenario
    • Rhigf-I /Iplex Successful Clinical Development Scenario
    • Datamonitor Pipeline Assessment Summary
    • Related Reports
  • Chapter 2 Market Overview
    • Definition of Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis
    • Segmentation of Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis
    • Etiology
    • Etiology of Als Is Largely Unknown
    • Prognosis of Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis Sufferers
    • Epidemiology
    • Diagnosis And Treatment Rates
    • Diagnosis of Als-Ruling Out Other Diseases First
    • Treatment Rates of Als-The Uptake of Rilutek
    • Market Size
    • Sizing The Als Market
    • Rilutek (Riluzole)
    • Drug Overview
    • Clinical Trial Information
    • Pivotal Rilutek Efficacy Trial
    • Phase Iii Survival Trial
    • Efficacy Has Broadly Been Accepted
    • Rilutek Sales
    • Rilutek Uptake
    • Unmet Need In Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis
    • Clinical Trial Design
  • Chapter 3 Future Market Potential
    • Scenario Forecasts For Als Total Market Value
    • Base Scenario
    • Rhigf-I /Iplex Successful Clinical Development Scenario
    • Forecast Rilutek Sales
    • Little Switching Between Rilutek And New Therapies
    • Rilutek Patent Protection
    • Us-Patent Us-05527814 Should Protect Rilutek Until 2013
    • 5eu-New Use Patent Should Protect Sanofi-Aventis Until Late 2012
    • Japan-New Use Patent Should Protect Sanofi-Aventis Until Late 2012
  • Chapter 4 Pipeline Overview And Dynamics
    • Pipeline Overview
    • Classification of Pipeline Products
    • Advantages of Developing An Als Treatment
  • Ninds Funding of Clinical Trials
    • For Mid-To-Large Cap Companies, Als offers Little Risk
    • Indication Expansion Post-Approval For Als offers Future Potential
    • Orphan Drug Designation Has Additional Benefits
    • Current Comparator Therapy-Rilutek
  • Chapter 5 Late-Stage Drug Analysis & Forecasts
    • Pipeline Comparative Forecasts
    • Two Scenarios Have Been Explored
    • Rhigf-I-Recombinant Human Insulin-Like Growth Factor I
    • Drug Overview
    • Forecasts To 2016
    • Base Scenario
    • Rhigf-I /Iplex Successful Clinical Development Scenario
    • Datamonitor Drug Assessment Summary-Igf-1/Iplex Successful Clinical Development Scenario
    • Marketing Factors-Rhigf-I /Iplex Successful Clinical Development Scenario
    • Marketing of Rhigf-I Likely If The Ninds-Sponsored Trial Is Successful
    • Rhigf-I Will Quickly Be Replaced With The Combination Product Iplex
    • Cost of Igf-1
    • Patient Potential
    • Satisfaction of Unmet Needs
    • Better/Alternative Drugs To Slow The Progression of The Disease
    • Clinical Trial Data
    • Cochrane Database Systematic Review of Rhlgf-1 For Als
    • First Clinical Trial Investigating The Use of Rhigf-I In Als
    • Smaller Negative Trial Investigating Rhigf-I And Als
    • Ongoing Clinical Trial Program
  • Iplex (Mecasermin Rinfabate, Rhigf-I/Igfbp-3)
    • Drug Overview
    • Forecasts To 2016
    • Base Scenario
  • Igf-1/Iplex Successful Clinical Development Scenario
    • Datamonitor Drug Assessment Summary-Igf-1/Iplex Successful Clinical Development Scenario
  • Iplex Market Penetration-Two Scenarios
    • Marketing Factors
    • Withdrawal From Us Short-Stature Market
    • Development For Als Likely To Receive A Higher Priority
  • Iplex Cost And Dose
  • Iplex Market Penetration-Two Scenarios
    • Patient Potential
    • Satisfaction of Unmet Needs
    • Clinical Trial Data
    • Radicut (Edaravone, Mci-186)
    • Drug Overview-Phase Iii
    • Lack of Clinical Data Precludes Assessment of Commercial Potential
    • Clinical Trial Data
    • Ongoing Clinical Trials
    • E0302 (Mecobalamin)
    • Drug Overview-Phase Ii/Iii
    • Forecasts To 2016-Applicable In Both Forecast Scenarios
    • Datamonitor Drug Assessment Summary-Igf-1/Iplex Successful Clinical Development Scenario
    • Marketing Factors
    • Cost of E0302 In Japan
    • Uptake of E0302 In Japan
    • E0302/Mecobalamin In The Ex-Japan Markets
    • Patient Potential
    • Satisfaction of Unmet Needs
    • Clinical Trial Data
    • Ongoing Clinical Trials
    • Creatine-Based Preparations
    • Als-02-Creatine Monotherapy
    • Drug Overview
    • Marketing Factors
    • Creatine Supplements Are Widely Available Over-The-Counter
    • Possible Advantage of Physician Monitoring And Reimbursement
    • Potential Cost And Maximum Revenue For Als-02.
    • Patient Potential
    • Satisfaction of Unmet Needs
    • Clinical Trial Data
    • Maximum Voluntary Isometric Contraction
    • Double-Blind Trial of Survival And Disease Progression
    • Small Trial In Advanced Als Patients Monitoring Respiratory Function
    • Clinical Trial To Examine The Muscular Effects of Creatine In Als Patients
    • Pilot Study Investigating Creatine's Effect On Muscle Strength In Als Patients
    • Ongoing Clinical Trials
    • Als-08-Creatine In Combination With Minocycline Or Celecoxib
    • Minocycline Combination Shown To Be Inferior To Celecoxib Combination
    • Minocycline Monotherapy Proved To Be Detrimental To Patients
    • Celecoxib Combination-Non-Futile Compared To Historical Controls
    • Celecoxib Monotherapy Trial-No Clear Efficacy As A Monotherapy
    • Arimoclomol
    • Drug Overview-Phase Ii
    • Clinical Trial Data
    • Multi-Center Phase Iia Clinical Trial Monitoring Safety And Tolerability of Arimoclomol
    • Open-Label Extension Clinical Trial of Arimoclomol In Als
    • Ongoing Clinical Trial Program
    • Other Als Pipeline Drugs
    • Fp-0011
    • Drug Overview-Phase Ii
    • Clinical Trial Data
    • Cereact
    • Drug Overview
    • Clinical Trial Data
    • Talampanel
    • Copaxone (Glatiramer Acetate)
    • Kns-760604 (R-Pramipexole)
    • Ceftriaxone
    • Coenzyme Q10
  • Bibliography
    • Journals
    • Websites
    • Datamonitor Reports
  • Appendix A
    • Methodology
    • Datamonitor Forecast Methodology
    • Product Forecasts
    • Definition of A Standard Unit
    • Contributing Experts
  • Appendix B
    • About Datamonitor
    • About Datamonitor Healthcare
    • Datamonitor Healthcare's Therapy Area Capabilities
    • About The Disease Analysis Team
    • Disclaimer
  • List of Tables
    • Table 1: Prevalence Estimates of Als Across The 7mm, 2007
    • Table 2: Rilutek Uptake In The Three Major Market Regions, 2006
    • Table 3: Cost of Rilutek (Riluzole), 2006/07
    • Table 4: Key Late-Stage R&D Pipeline In Als, 2007
    • Table 5: Drug Classes And Modes of Action For Key Als Pipeline Drugs
    • Table 6: Estimated Cost of Rilutek, Avonex And Rhigf-I , 2006
    • Table 7: Datamonitor Drug Assessment Parameters
  • List of Figures
    • Figure 1: Als Market Size And Forecast-Base Scenario, 2006-16
    • Figure 2: Als Market Size And Forecast-Igf-1/Iplex Scenario, 2006-16
    • Figure 3: Drug Assessment Summary For Als Treatments - Igf-1/Iplex Successful Clinical Development Scenario, 2007
    • Figure 4: Total Als Market Sales Revenue ($M), 2003-06.
    • Figure 5: Prescription Revenue Versus Prescription Volume of Rilutek And Other Drugs In The Seven Major Als Markets, 2006
    • Figure 6: Rilutek Revenue By Market, 2006
    • Figure 7: Key Unmet Needs In Als Treatment
    • Figure 8: Als Market Size And Forecast-Base Scenario, 2003-2016
    • Figure 9: Als Market Size And Forecast-Igf-1/Iplex Scenario, 2003-2016
    • Figure 10: Percentage Change In Rilutek Sales In The Us Q3 2002 To Q2 2007
    • Figure 11: Rilutek Sales Revenue Forecast Across The 7mm, 2007-16
    • Figure 12: Origin of Als Key Late-Stage Pipeline Drugs, 2007
    • Figure 13: Forecast Sales Revenue For Key Als Pipeline Drugs, 2007-16
    • Figure 14: Rhigf-I Sales Revenue Forecast Based On The Rhigf-I /Iplex Successful Clinical Development Scenario, 2007-16
    • Figure 15: Datamonitor's Drug Assessment Summary For Rhigf-I
    • Figure 16: Iplex Base Scenario Als Sales Revenue Forecast, 2007-16.
    • Figure 17: Iplex Sales Revenue Forecast, Rhigf-I/Iplex Successful Clinical Development Scenario, 2007-16
    • Figure 18: Datamonitor's Drug Assessment Summary For Iplex
    • Figure 19: E0302 (Mecobalamin) Als Sales Forecast, 2007-16
    • Figure 20: Datamonitor's Drug Assessment Summary For E0302 (Mecobalamin)
    • Figure 21: Datamonitor Drug Assessment Summary of Pipeline Molecular Targeted Therapies In Development For Hematological Malignancies, 2007