Commercial Insight: Antihormonal Cancer Therapies

Introduction

Antihormonal cancer therapies are a class of drugs used predominantly in the treatment of breast cancer and prostate cancer. The high incidence of these tumor types translates into a significant commercial potential for drug developers. Collectively, the antihormonal therapy cancer brands generated sales of about $6.9 billion in the seven major pharmaceutical markets in 2008.

Scope

• In-depth analysis of the current and future antihormonal therapies market across the US, 5EU and Japan, plus a rest of world snapshot
• Antihormonal therapy sales forecasts for brands and generics from 2008 to 2018
• Assessment of the leading cancer brands and drug classes to identify key success factors within this sector
• Evaluation of the strategies of leading players in the antihormonals market

Highlights

The antihormonals market was worth $6.9 billion in 2008 across the seven major pharmaceutical markets. Its growth within the next decade, at a marginal CAGR of 0.1%, will be predominantly limited by patent expiries of leading brands.

In 2008, Arimidex (anastrozole; AstraZeneca), Lupron (leuprolide; Takeda/Abbott) and Casodex (bicalutamide; AstraZeneca) were the three leading antihormonal brands in terms of sales. These will remain the top three brands through to 2018, even though Arimidex and Casodex will lose around 40% of their brand value due to generic competition.

In a mature market, the importance of product lifecycle management is high. AstraZeneca was the key player in the market in 2008, with an antihormonals portfolio valued at over $3.4 billion. With successful lifecycle management and a considerable investment in marketing activities, AstraZeneca has built a strong brand presence for its products.

Reasons to Purchase

• Quantify the performance of each of the marketed antihormonal therapy cancer brands in the seven major markets over the period 2008 to 2018
• Acquire a detailed account of antihormonal therapy cancer brand dynamics and the events that drive and limit their market growth
• Benchmark the antihormonal therapy cancer brands against generics and rest of class and align their 7MM performance with a rest of world snapshot

• ABOUT DATAMONITOR HEALTHCARE
• About the Oncology pharmaceutical analysis team
• CHAPTER 1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
  • Strategic scoping and focus
  • Datamonitor insight into the antihormonal cancer therapies market
  • Related reports
  • Upcoming related reports
• CHAPTER 2 MARKET DEFINITION
  • Definition of the cancer market
  • Antihormonal therapies by ATC class
  • L2A3 - Luteinizing hormone-releasing hormone agonists
  • L2B1 - Anti-estrogens
  • L2B2 - Anti-androgens
  • L2B3 - Aromatase inhibitors
  • L2B9 - Other hormone antagonists
• CHAPTER 3 MARKET OVERVIEW
  • Seven major markets
  • Current and future market overview
  • The antihormonal therapies market will grow marginally in the forecast period
  • Patent expiries of leading antihormonal brands are set to occur within the next 5 years
  • The US will suffer the greatest impact of generic erosion, losing about 25% of its value in the forecast period
  • The aromatase inhibitors will continue to be the leading drug class in 2018
  • The current leading antihormonal brands will suffer generic sales erosion but will maintain a high level of sales
  • The antihormonal therapies market will grow from $6.9 billion in 2008 to $7.0 billion in 2018 across the seven major pharmaceutical markets
  • Opportunities and threats
  • Opportunities
  • Threats
  • US
  • Current and future market assessment
  • The US antihormonals market will suffer the greatest impact of generic sales erosion
  • The value of the antihormonals market will decrease from $2.7 billion in 2008 to $2.0 billion in 2018 in the US
  • Opportunities and threats
  • Opportunities
  • Threats
  • Japan
  • Current and future market assessment
  • The antihormonal therapies market in Japan is forecast to grow over the forecast period
  • The antihormonals market will grow from $1.6 billion in 2008 to $1.8 billion in 2018 in Japan
  • Opportunities and threats
  • Opportunities
  • Threats
  • Five major European markets (5EU)
  • Current and future market assessment
  • The antihormonal therapies market in the five European countries will show marginal growth
  • The antihormonal therapies market will grow from $2.6 billion in 2008 to $3.1 billion in 2018 in the five major European markets
  • Opportunities and threats
  • Opportunities
  • Threats
  • France
  • Current and future market assessment
  • The antihormonal therapies market will grow from $682m in 2008 to $810m in 2018 in France
  • Germany
  • Current and future market assessment
  • The antihormonals therapies market will grow from $754m in 2008 to $947m in 2018 in Germany
  • Italy
  • Current and future market assessment
  • The antihormonal therapies market will grow from $376m in 2008 to $421m in 2018 in Italy
  • Spain
  • Current and future market assessment
  • The antihormonal therapies market will grow from $395m in 2008 to $470m in 2018 in Spain
  • UK
  • Current and future market assessment
  • The antihormonal therapies market will grow from $430m in 2008 to $479m in 2018 in the UK
  • Rest of the world snapshot
  • Current market assessment
  • Rest of the world sales represent 23% of the global antihormonals market
  • Opportunities and threats
  • Opportunities
  • Threats
• CHAPTER 4 BRAND DYNAMICS
  • Overview of competitive landscape
  • Arimidex, Lupron and Casodex will remain the top 3 antihormonal brands in 10 years' time
  • Drivers of brand choice
  • Efficacy and toxicity are the most important drivers of brand choice
  • Trends in marketing strategies
  • Marketing strategy for leading brands
  • Patient information and support programs
  • Direct-to-Consumer advertising
  • Arimidex (anastrozole; AstraZeneca)
  • Drug profile
  • Product positioning
  • SWOT analysis
  • Brand forecast to 2018
  • Arimidex set to maintain its blockbuster status despite patent expiry
  • Lupron (leuprolide; Takeda/Abbott)
  • Drug profile
  • Product positioning
  • SWOT analysis
  • Brand forecast to 2018
  • Lupron will be the top selling antihormonal therapy in 2018, with sales in excess of $1 billion
  • Casodex (bicalutamide; AstraZeneca)
  • Drug profile
  • Product positioning
  • SWOT analysis
  • Brand forecast to 2018
  • Patent expiries set to hamper sales of this class-leading brand
• CHAPTER 5 KEY DEVELOPERS
  • Strategic overview
  • Trends in corporate strategy
  • Strategic lifecycle management is essential in the antihormonals market
  • Commercialization partnerships are common for smaller players
  • AstraZeneca
  • Corporate strategy
  • Oncology antihormonals portfolio assessment
  • Takeda
  • Corporate strategy
  • Oncology antihormonals portfolio assessment
  • Portfolio assessment of other leading companies
• CHAPTER 6 CASE STUDY
  • Portfolio management: the example of AstraZeneca
  • A first-to-market status is a good start
  • ...but strategic portfolio management is essential to maintain shareholder value
  • AstraZeneca's ambitious plans for Arimidex paid off
  • ...and the approval of Faslodex continued a strong investment in the breast cancer market
  • Expanding into the prostate cancer market strengthened AstraZeneca's portfolio value
  • BIBLIOGRAPHY
  • Datamonitor reports
  • Other
  • APPENDIX A - MARKET ASSUMPTIONS
  • New product launches
  • Patent expiries
  • Data definitions, limitations and assumptions
  • Standard units
  • Japanese market data
  • Rest of World
  • Derivation of sales forecasts and pricing trends
  • Forecast methodology
  • APPENDIX B
  • About Datamonitor
  • About Datamonitor Healthcare
  • About the Oncology analysis team
  • Disclaimer
  • Table 1: Definition of the cancer market, 2009
  • Table 2: Sales and growth of antihormonal therapy drug classes in the seven major markets, 2008-2018
  • Table 3: Key events impacting the antihormonal therapies market, 2008-2018
  • Table 4: Antihormonal therapies sales forecasts in the seven major markets ($m), 2008-2018
  • Table 5: Summary of opportunities and threats to impact the antihormonals market across the seven major markets, 2009
  • Table 6: Sales and growth of antihormonal therapy drug classes in the US, 2008-2018
  • Table 7: Top 5 branded antihormonals in the US in 2008 and 2018
  • Table 8: Antihormonal therapy sales forecasts in the US ($m), 2008-2018
  • Table 9: Summary of opportunities and threats to impact the antihormonal market in the US, 2009-2018
  • Table 10: Sales and growth of antihormonal therapy drug classes in Japan, 2008-2018
  • Table 11: Top 5 branded antihormonals in Japan in 2008 and 2018
  • Table 12: Antihormonal therapy sales forecasts in Japan ($m), 2008-2018
  • Table 13: Summary of opportunities and threats to impact the antihormonals market in Japan, 2009-2018
  • Table 14: Sales and growth of antihormonal therapy drug classes in the five major European markets, 2008-2018
  • Table 15: Top 5 branded antihormonals in the five major European markets in 2008 and 2018
  • Table 16: Antihormonal therapy sales forecasts in the five major European markets ($m), 2008-2018
  • Table 17: Summary of opportunities and threats to impact the antihormonals market in the five major European markets, 2009
  • Table 18: Top 5 branded antihormonals in France in 2008 and 2018
  • Table 19: Antihormonal therapy sales forecasts in France ($m), 2008-2018
  • Table 20: Top 5 branded antihormonals in Germany in 2008 and 2018
  • Table 21: Antihormonal therapy sales forecasts in Germany ($m), 2008-2018
  • Table 22: Top 5 branded antihormonals in Italy in 2008 and 2018
  • Table 23: Antihormonal therapy sales forecasts in Italy ($m), 2008-2018
  • Table 24: Top 5 branded antihormonals in Spain in 2008 and 2018
  • Table 25: Antihormonal therapy sales forecasts in Spain ($m), 2008-2018
  • Table 26: Top 5 branded antihormonals in the UK in 2008 and 2018
  • Table 27: Antihormonal therapy sales forecasts in the UK ($m), 2008-2018
  • Table 28: Comparison of antihormonal drug class sales ($m) in the seven major markets and rest of the world, 2008
  • Table 29: Leading branded antihormonal therapy drug sales in the seven major markets ($m), 2008-2018
  • Table 30: Marketing strategies employed by companies behind the top 3 antihormonal brands, 2009
  • Table 31: Arimidex (anastrozole) - drug profile, 2009
  • Table 32: Impacting factors on the revenues of Arimidex, 2008-2018
  • Table 33: Lupron (leuprolide) - drug profile, 2009
  • Table 34: Impacting factors on the revenues of Lupron, 2008-2018
  • Table 35: Casodex (bicalutamide) - drug profile, 2009
  • Table 36: Impacting factors on the revenues of Casodex, 2008-2018
  • Table 37: Leading companies in the antihormonals market in the seven major pharmaceutical markets, 2008-2018
  • Table 38: Assessment of AstraZeneca's cancer antihormonals portfolio, 2009
  • Table 39: Assessment of Takeda's cancer antihormonals portfolio, 2009
  • Table 40: Assessment of Novartis's cancer antihormonals portfolio, 2009
  • Table 41: Assessment of Pfizer's cancer antihormonals portfolio, 2009
  • Table 42: Assessment of Sanofi-Aventis's cancer antihormonals portfolio, 2009
  • Table 43: Regional launch dates for new antihormonals in the seven major markets, 2008-2018
  • Table 44: Patent expiry dates for the approved antihormonals in the seven major pharmaceutical markets, 2008-2018
• List of Figures
  • Figure 1: Comparison of brand versus generic value of antihormonal therapies in 2008 and 2018 in the seven major pharmaceutical markets
  • Figure 2: Antihormonal therapy sales ($m) by country, 2008-2018
  • Figure 3: Antihormonal therapy sales ($m) by drug class in the seven major markets, 2008-2018
  • Figure 4: Performance of leading antihormonal therapy brands in the seven major markets, 2008 versus 2018
  • Figure 5: Antihormonal therapy sales ($m) in the US, 2008-2018
  • Figure 6: Antihormonal therapy sales ($m) in Japan, 2008-2018
  • Figure 7: Antihormonal therapy sales ($m) in the five major European markets, 2008-2018
  • Figure 8: Antihormonal therapy sales ($m) in France, 2008-2018
  • Figure 9: Antihormonal therapy sales ($m) in Germany, 2008-2018
  • Figure 10: Antihormonal therapy sales ($m) in Italy, 2008-2018
  • Figure 11: Antihormonal therapy sales ($m) in Spain, 2008-2018
  • Figure 12: Antihormonal therapy sales ($m) in the UK, 2008-2018
  • Figure 13: Rest of the world versus seven major market sales split in the antihormonal therapies market ($m), 2008
  • Figure 14: Drivers of brand choice for antihormonal cancer therapy, 2009
  • Figure 15: Example of Arimidex patient information and support programs
  • Figure 16: Femara free trial program
  • Figure 17: Frequency of cancer-related DTC advertising, January 2003-June 2006
  • Figure 18: Arimidex SWOT analysis, 2009
  • Figure 19: Arimidex forecast sales ($m) by country in the seven major markets, 2008-2018
  • Figure 20: Lupron SWOT analysis, 2009
  • Figure 21: Lupron forecast sales ($m) by country in the seven major markets, 2008-2018
  • Figure 22: Casodex SWOT analysis, 2009
  • Figure 23: Casodex forecast sales ($m) by country in the seven major markets, 2008-2018