Forecast Insight: Antihypertensives

New fixed dose combinations unable to stem the tide of patent expiries

Publication Date	July 2009
Publisher	Datamonitor
Product Type	Report
Pages	181
ISBN Number	not applicable
Product Code	DAT05969

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Summary

Following the patent expiries of ARBs Datamonitor expects antihypertensives sales in the seven major markets to record sales of $29.5 billion in 2018, a drop of over $6 billion compared to 2008. With no promising novel pipeline agents, pharmaceutical companies have little choice but to adopt line extension life cycle management strategies introducing a number of new fixed dose combinations.

Scope

Description of the competitive landscape in antihypertensives across seven major markets with market definition and overview.
Definition of the unmet need in the antihypertensives market.
Event-driven updated sales forecasts for 2009-18 across the seven major markets: US, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, UK and Japan.
Analysis of major events and brand dynamics affecting the hypertension market.

Highlights

The antihypertensive market is declining. The market is mature and does not present an attractive opportunity for R&D expenditure; consequently Big Pharma are shying away from the pursuit of novel mechanisms of action in favor of developing more efficacious combination therapies.

Cozaar's and Diovan's patent expiries in the US are expected to alter the structure of the antihypertensive market dramatically. Threats of generic substitution and money-saving healthcare strategies which have plagued other markets, are now approaching the successful ARB class, and will have an impact on the whole antihypertensive market.

Novartis have failed to strengthen its position in the antihypertensives arena with its new renin inhibitor Tekturna and Exforge is expected to face a number of competitive alternatives. More fixed dose combinations from all major players are soon expected to enter. Those agents however will be restricted to a niche population with limited growth.

Reasons to Purchase

Quantify the future size of the antihypertensives market and identify opportunities for new products.
Learn how recent changes related to product expiries will shape the antihypertensives market.
Understand the barriers to uptake for novel antihypertensive agents, and the need for paradigm shift in clinical trial design.

Content

ABOUT DATAMONITOR HEALTHCARE

About the cardiovascular analysis team

CHAPTER 1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Strategic scoping and focus
Datamonitor insight into the disease market
Related reports
Upcoming related reports

CHAPTER 2 MARKET DEFINITION

Market definition for this report

CHAPTER 3 MARKET OVERVIEW

Seven major markets
Current and future market overview
Class level analysis
Country level analysis
Key events
Opportunities and threats
Opportunities
Threats
US
Current and future market assessment
Opportunities and threats
Opportunities
Threats
Japan
Current and future market assessment
Opportunities and threats
Opportunities
Threats
Five major European markets (5EU)
Current and future market assessment
Opportunities and threats
Opportunities
Threats
France
Current and future market assessment
Germany
Current and future market assessment
Italy
Current and future market assessment
Spain
Current and future market assessment
UK
Current and future market assessment
Rest of the world snapshot
Current market assessment

CHAPTER 4 BRAND DYNAMICS

Overview of competitive landscape
Drivers of brand choice
Efficacy and side-effect profile
Use in niche populations
Marketing and pricing
US formulary tier status for leading brands
Trends in marketing strategies
Marketing strategy for leading brands
Promotional spend
Angiotensin receptor blockers
Diovan/Co-Diovan (valsartan/valsartan + HCT)
Cozaar (losartan)/Hyzaar (losartan + HTCZ)
Blopress/Atacand (candesartan)
Benicar (olmesartan)
Micardis (telmisartan)
Renin inhibitors (Tekturna/Rasilez (aliskiren))
ARBs, ACE, Aliskiren, combinations and dual RAAS inhibition

CHAPTER 5 KEY DEVELOPERS

Strategic overview
Trends in corporate strategy
Recent strategic partnerships/deals
Novartis
Diversification into generics via Sandoz; Novartis breaks trend to enter generics market
Daiichi Sankyo
Olmesartan franchise central to Daiichi Sankyo's future growth
Two possible scenarios for olmesartan
Ranbaxy acquisition
Takeda
Over 80% of current ethical sales will soon be exposed to generic competition
Cash reserves utilized to steer strategy towards other therapy areas

CHAPTER 6 CASE STUDY: EFFECT OF THE KEY PATENT EXPIRIES ON MARKET DYNAMICS

Introduction
Patent expiries timeline
The impact of generic penetration
US
Japan
Five major European markets
France
Germany
Italy
Spain
UK

BIBLIOGRAPHY

Journal papers
Websites
Datamonitor reports

APPENDIX A - MARKET ASSUMPTIONS

New product launches
Patent expiries

APPENDIX B

Contributing experts
Report methodology
About Datamonitor
About Datamonitor Healthcare
About the Cardiovascular Disease analysis team
Disclaimer
Table 1: Sales and growth of drug classes for antihypertensives in the seven major markets, 2008-18
Table 2: Sales and growth of antihypertensives market by country in the seven major markets, 2005-18
Table 3: Key events impacting the antihypertensives market, 2008-18
Table 4: Forecast sales of antihypertensives in the seven major markets, 2008-18
Table 5: Projected and forecast adult obesity prevalence (million) in the seven major markets, 2008-18
Table 6: Summary of opportunities and threats in the antihypertensives market across the seven major markets, 2008-18
Table 7: Sales and growth of drug classes for antihypertensives in the US, 2008-18
Table 8: Top 10 brands sales forecasts in hypertension in the US ($m), 2008-18
Table 9: Three generics companies are among the top 10 companies in terms of prescriptions filled under Medicare Part D, 2006
Table 10: Sales and growth of drug classes for antihypertensives in Japan, 2008-18
Table 11: Sales and growth of drug classes for antihypertensives in 5EU, 2008-18
Table 12: Top 10 brands sales forecasts in hypertension in five major European countries ($m), 2008-18
Table 13: Sales and growth of drug classes for antihypertensives in France, 2008-18
Table 14: Sales and growth of drug classes for antihypertensives in Germany, 2008-18
Table 15: Sales and growth of drug classes for antihypertensives in Italy, 2008-18
Table 16: Sales and growth of drug classes for antihypertensives in Spain, 2008-18
Table 17: Sales and growth of drug classes for antihypertensives in the UK, 2008-18
Table 18: Ranking of the leading branded drugs by revenue in 2007 and 2008
Table 19: Leading branded drug sales for antihypertensives in the seven major markets ($m), 2008-18
Table 20: Representative formulary tier status in the US for leading brands in inflammatory bowel disease, 2009
Table 21: Marketing strategies employed by US product websites of key antihypertensive brands, 2008
Table 22: Leading angiotensin receptor blockers sales ($m) for hypertension in the seven major markets, 2008-18
Table 23: Diovan: key facts
Table 24: Secondary market events affecting Diovan/Co-Diovan, 2008-09
Table 25: Sales forecast ($m) for the valsartan franchise in the seven major markets, 2008-18
Table 26: Key facts: Cozaar
Table 27: Sales forecast ($m) for the losartan franchise in the seven major markets, 2008-18
Table 28: Blopress/Atacand: key facts
Table 29: Sales forecast ($m) for the entire candesartan franchise for hypertension in the seven major markets, 2008-18
Table 30: Secondary market events affecting Blopress/Atacand, 2008-09
Table 31: Benicar: key facts
Table 32: Sales forecast ($m) for the olmesartan franchise in the seven major markets, 2008-18
Table 33: Secondary market events affecting Benicar, 2008-09
Table 34: Micardis: key facts
Table 35: Sales forecast ($m) for the telmisartan franchise in the seven major markets, 2008-18
Table 36: Secondary market events affecting Micardis, 2008-09
Table 37: Tekturna: key facts
Table 38: Sales forecast ($m) for the aliskiren franchise in the seven major markets, 2008-18
Table 39: Secondary market events affecting Tekturna, 2008-09
Table 40: Leading companies in the antihypertensives market, seven major markets, 2008-18
Table 41: Recent strategic partnerships/deals, 2006-08, in antihypertensives
Table 42: New product launches for the antihypertensives in the seven major markets, 2009-2012
Table 43: Patent expiry dates for the approved antihypertensives in the seven major markets, 2008-2018
Figure 1: Antihypertensives sales ($m) by class, 2005-18
Figure 2: Historical antihypertensives sales ($m), growth (% CAGR) and market share at class level, 2005-08
Figure 3: Forecasted antihypertensives sales ($m), growth (% CAGR) and market share at class level, 2008-18
Figure 4: Antihypertensives sales ($m) and year-on-year growth in units (volume) and revenue (value), 2007-08
Figure 5: Antihypertensives sales ($m) by region, 2005-18
Figure 6: Antihypertensives sales and volume growth (% CAGR) by region, 2005-18
Figure 7: Impact of key events on the antihypertensives market, 2008-18
Figure 8: Proportion of population aged 20-39 years, 2004 and 2015, and prevalence of hypertension in this age group in the seven major markets, 2004
Figure 9: Proportion of population aged 40-59 years, 2004 and 2015, and prevalence of hypertension in this age group in the seven major markets, 2004
Figure 10: Proportion of population aged 60-79 years, 2004 and 2015, and prevalence of hypertension in this age group in the seven major markets, 2004
Figure 11: Generalized distribution chain for parallel traded pharmaceutical products
Figure 12: Effect of recent major patent expiries of antihypertensives in the US sales ($m), 2005-18
Figure 13: US antihypertensives sales ($m) by class, 2005-18
Figure 14: Performance of main classes for antihypertensives in the US, 2008 vs. 2018
Figure 15: JNC6 and JNC7 compared: classification of blood pressure levels
Figure 16: Compelling indications for individual drug classes
Figure 17: Generic use in the US is promoted through a number of channels
Figure 18: Key pressures facing drug developers, 1990-2004
Figure 19: Japan antihypertensives sales ($m) by class, 2005-18
Figure 20: Performance of main classes for antihypertensives in Japan, 2008 vs. 2018
Figure 21: 5EU antihypertensives sales ($m) by class, 2005-18
Figure 22: Antihypertensives sales ($m) and growth (% CAGR) in 5EU by country, 2005-18
Figure 23: France antihypertensives sales ($m) by class, 2005-18
Figure 24: Performance of main classes for antihypertensives in France, 2008 vs. 2018
Figure 25: Germany antihypertensives sales ($m) by class, 2005-18
Figure 26: Performance of main classes for antihypertensives in Germany, 2008 vs. 2018
Figure 27: Italy antihypertensives sales ($m) by class, 2005-18
Figure 28: Performance of main classes for antihypertensives in Italy, 2008 vs. 2018
Figure 29: Spain antihypertensives sales ($m) by class, 2005-18
Figure 30: Performance of main classes for antihypertensives in Spain, 2008 vs. 2018
Figure 31: UK antihypertensives sales ($m) by class, 2005-18
Figure 32: Performance of main classes for antihypertensives in the UK, 2008 vs. 2018
Figure 33: Rest of the world versus seven major market sales split in the antihypertensives market ($m), 2008
Figure 34: Indexed annual sales of the antihypertensives market in the 'total rest of the world' group, 2005-08
Figure 35: Indexed annual sales of the antihypertensives market in the 'total rest of the world' group, segmented by class, 2005-08
Figure 36: Drivers of brand choice for antihypertensives
Figure 37: Total promotional spend (proportional) in the seven major markets for the key angiotensin II receptor blockers, 2005-08
Figure 38: Forecast sales of angiotensin receptor blockers, 2008-18
Figure 39: Sales ($m) forecast for Diovan in the seven major markets, 2008-18
Figure 40: Sales ($m) forecast for Cozaar in the seven major markets, 2008-18
Figure 41: Sales ($m) forecast for candesartan in the seven major markets, 2008-18
Figure 42: Sales ($m) forecast for Benicar in the seven major markets, 2008-19
Figure 43: Sales ($m) forecast for Micardis in the seven major markets, 2007-2017
Figure 44: Sales ($m) forecast for Tekturna in the seven major markets, 2008-18
Figure 45: Key antihypertensives patent expiries timeline 2007-2018
Figure 46: The impact of the key patent expiries with historical and forecasted revenue trends 2005-18
Figure 47: Comparison of branded vs. generic antihypertensive sales ($billion) in the seven major markets, 2005-18
Figure 48: Comparison of branded vs. generic antihypertensive sales ($billion) in the US, 2005-18
Figure 49: Comparison of branded vs. generic antihypertensive sales ($billion) in Japan, 2005-18
Figure 50: Comparison of branded vs. generic antihypertensive sales ($billion) in 5EU, 2005-18
Figure 51: Comparison of branded vs. generic antihypertensive sales ($billion) in France, 2005-18
Figure 52: Comparison of branded vs. generic antihypertensive sales ($billion) in Germany, 2005-18
Figure 53: Comparison of branded vs. generic antihypertensive sales ($billion) in Italy, 2005-18
Figure 54: Comparison of branded vs. generic antihypertensive sales ($billion) in Spain, 2005-18
Figure 55: Comparison of branded vs. generic antihypertensive sales ($billion) in the UK, 2005-18