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PharmaPoint: Type 2 Diabetes - India Drug Forecast and Market Analysis to 2022

  • Publication Date:July 2013
  • Publisher:GlobalData
  • Product Type: Report
  • Pages:198
  • ISBN:1889404

PharmaPoint: Type 2 Diabetes - India Drug Forecast and Market Analysis to 2022

PharmaPoint: Type 2 Diabetes - India Drug Forecast and Market Analysis to 2022

Summary

GlobalData has released its new Country report, “PharmaPoint: Type 2 Diabetes - India Drug Forecast and Market Analysis to 2022”. The type 2 diabetes market is mature and crowded with inexpensive generics. Despite being marked by a late-stage pipeline filled with me-too drugs, this market will undergo substantial growth between 2012 and 2022, more than doubling over this period. The main drivers of growth will be the dramatic increase in disease prevalence and physicians' efforts to delay disease progression and reduce the costly burden of diabetic complications through the use of combination therapies and novel branded drugs. In the emerging markets in particular, uptake of branded drugs will increase due to rapid economic growth. We anticipate that the type 2 diabetes market will not experience a fundamental shift in the classes of drugs that are preferred by physicians. Rapid uptake of drugs from the novel class of SGLT-2 inhibitors will occur; however, DPP-4 inhibitors and GLP-1 receptor agonists will continue dominating the noninsulin type 2 diabetes space. GLP-1 receptor agonists will experience the fastest growth of all classes (CAGR of 17%), due to their weight-loss effects and their novel once-weekly administration, which is preferable to the standard once- or twice-daily therapies.

The law in India contains certain provisions which allow for the entry of generic drugs despite patent expiration, such as low-cost generics for life-threatening diseases. This is now spilling over to other chronic diseases like diabetes. Recently, Merck's bid to prevent Indian drug maker Glenmark Pharmaceuticals from selling copycat forms of Januvia and Janumet has suffered a setback in India. Lack of clarity in the drug regulatory system and weak patent laws are a challenge for foreign multinational companies attempting to enter or expand in the Indian healthcare market.

Scope

- Overview of type 2 diabetes including epidemiology, etiology, symptoms, diagnosis, pathology and treatment guidelines as well as an overview on the competitive landscape.
- Detailed information on the key drugs in India including product description, safety and efficacy profiles as well as a SWOT analysis.
- Sales forecast for the top drugs in India from 2012-2022.
- Analysis of the impact of key events as well the drivers and restraints affecting India type 2 diabetes market.

Reasons to buy

- Understand and capitalize by identifying products that are most likely to ensure a robust return
- Stay ahead of the competition by understanding the changing competitive landscape for type 2 diabetes
- Effectively plan your M&A and partnership strategies by identifying drugs with the most promising sales potential
- Make more informed business decisions from insightful and in-depth analysis of drug performance
- Obtain sales forecast for drugs from 2012-2022 in India
Table of Contents

1 Table of Contents 5
1.1 List of Tables 8
1.2 List of Figures 11
2 Introduction 12
2.1 Catalyst 12
2.2 Related Reports 13
3 Disease Overview 16
3.1 Etiology and Pathophysiology 16
3.1.1 Etiology 16
3.1.2 Pathophysiology 17
3.1.3 Prognosis 18
3.1.4 Quality of Life 19
3.2 Symptoms 19
4 Disease Management 21
4.1 Treatment Overview 21
4.1.1 Diagnosis and Referrals 21
4.1.2 Treatment Guidelines 22
4.2 India 28
4.2.1 Diagnosis 28
4.2.2 Clinical Practice 28
5 Competitive Assessment 29
5.1 Overview 29
5.2 Strategic Competitor Assessment 30
5.3 Product Profiles - Major Brands 32
5.3.1 Metformin 32
5.3.2 Sulfonylureas (SUs) and Other Insulin Secretagogues 37
5.3.3 ?-glucosidase Inhibitors (AGIs) 41
5.3.4 Thiazolidinediones (TZDs) 44
5.3.5 GLP-1 Receptor Agonists 48
5.3.6 DPP-4 Inhibitors 67
5.3.7 SGLT-2 Inhibitors 82
5.3.8 Insulin Formulations 90
6 Opportunity and Unmet Need 110
6.1 Overview 110
6.2 Unmet Needs 111
6.2.1 Drugs Providing Sustained Glycemic Control 111
6.2.2 Drugs with Non-Glycemic Benefits 112
6.2.3 Increased Patient Compliance 113
6.2.4 Drugs with Improved Side-Effect Profiles 114
6.2.5 Earlier Diagnosis 115
6.3 Unmet Needs Gap Analysis 116
6.4 Oral Therapy with Sustainable Efficacy 117
6.5 Oral Therapy Offering Weight Loss 117
6.6 Cardio-metabolic Therapy 118
6.7 Promotion of Type 2 Diabetes Drugs in Emerging Markets 118
7 Pipeline Assessment 119
7.1 Overview 119
7.2 Promising Drugs in Clinical Development 120
7.2.1 Albiglutide 125
7.2.2 Dulaglutide (LY2189265) 130
7.2.3 MK-3102 136
7.2.4 Fasiglifam (TAK-875) 140
7.2.5 LY2409021 144
8 Market Outlook 148
8.1 India 148
8.1.1 Forecast 148
8.1.2 Key Events 153
8.1.3 Drivers and Barriers 153
9 Appendix 156
9.1 Bibliography 156
9.2 Abbreviations 179
9.3 Methodology 182
9.4 Forecasting Methodology 182
9.4.1 Diagnosed Type 2 Patients 182
9.4.2 Percent Drug-Treated Patients 183
9.4.3 Drugs Included in Each Therapeutic Class 183
9.4.4 General Pricing Assumptions 183
9.4.5 Individual Drug Assumptions 184
9.4.6 Pricing of Pipeline Agents 192
9.5 Physicians and Specialists Included in this Study 193
9.6 About the Authors 195
9.6.1 Analyst II - CVMD 195
9.6.2 Therapy Director - CVMD and Infectious Disease 195
9.6.3 Global Head of Healthcare 196
9.7 About GlobalData 197
9.8 Disclaimer 197



List of Tables

Table 1: Symptoms of Type 2 Diabetes 20
Table 2: Diagnostic Tests and Typical Criteria for Type 2 Diabetes 21
Table 3: Treatment Guidelines for Type 2 Diabetes 23
Table 4: Most-Prescribed Drugs (Following Metformin and Sulfonylureas) for Type 2 Diabetes by Class in the Global Markets, 2012 26
Table 5: Leading Branded Treatments for Type 2 Diabetes, 2012 31
Table 6: Product Profile - Metformin 34
Table 7: Metformin SWOT Analysis, 2012 36
Table 8: First-Generation Sulfonylureas 38
Table 9: Second-Generation Sulfonylureas 38
Table 10: Product Profile - Sulfonylureas 39
Table 11: Sulfonylureas SWOT Analysis, 2012 40
Table 12: Product Profile - Acarbose 42
Table 13: AGIs SWOT Analysis, 2012 44
Table 14: Product Profile - Actos 46
Table 15: Actos SWOT Analysis, 2012 48
Table 16: GLP-1 Receptor Agonists 50
Table 17: Product Profile - Byetta 52
Table 18: Byetta SWOT Analysis, 2012 54
Table 19: Product Profile - Victoza 56
Table 20: Victoza SWOT Analysis, 2012 58
Table 21: Product Profile - Bydureon 60
Table 22: Bydureon SWOT Analysis, 2012 62
Table 23: Product Profile - Lyxumia 64
Table 24: Lyxumia SWOT Analysis, 2012 67
Table 25: Marketed DPP-4 Inhibitors 69
Table 26: Marketed DPP-4 Inhibitors in Combination with Other OADs 69
Table 27: Product Profile - Januvia 71
Table 28: Januvia SWOT Analysis, 2012 73
Table 29: Product Profile - Onglyza 75
Table 30: Onglyza SWOT Analysis, 2012 77
Table 31: Product Profile - Galvus 79
Table 32: Galvus SWOT Analysis, 2012 82
Table 33: Product Profile - Forxiga 84
Table 34: Forxiga SWOT Analysis, 2012 86
Table 35: Product Profile - Invokana 87
Table 36: Invokana SWOT Analysis, 2012 89
Table 37: Insulins - Overview and Comparison 91
Table 38: Insulin Formulations 91
Table 39: Product Profile - Humalog 92
Table 40: Humalog SWOT Analysis, 2012 94
Table 41: Product Profile - Lantus 95
Table 42: Lantus SWOT Analysis, 2012 98
Table 43: Product Profile - Levemir 99
Table 44: Levemir SWOT Analysis, 2012 101
Table 45: Product Profile - Novolog 102
Table 46: Novolog SWOT Analysis, 2012 103
Table 47: Product Profile - Apidra 104
Table 48: Apidra SWOT Analysis, 2012 106
Table 49: Product Profile - Tresiba 107
Table 50: Tresiba SWOT Analysis, 2012 109
Table 51: Overall Unmet Needs - Current Level of Attainment 110
Table 52: Clinical Unmet Needs - Gap Analysis, 2013 116
Table 53: Type 2 Diabetes - Phase Pipeline, 2012 122
Table 54: Comparison of Therapeutic Classes in Development for Type 2 Diabetes, 2012 123
Table 55: Product Profile - Albiglutide 126
Table 56: Albiglutide SWOT Analysis, 2013 130
Table 57: Product Profile - Dulaglutide 132
Table 58: Dulaglutide SWOT Analysis, 2012 136
Table 59: Product Profile - MK-3102 137
Table 60: MK-3102 SWOT Analysis, 2013 139
Table 61: Product Profile - Fasiglifam 141
Table 62: Fasiglifam SWOT Analysis, 2013 144
Table 63: Product Profile - LY2409021 145
Table 64: LY2409021 SWOT Analysis, 2013 147
Table 65: India Sales Forecasts ($m) for Type 2 Diabetes, 2012-2022 150
Table 66: Key Events Impacting Sales for Type 2 Diabetes in India, 2012-2022 153
Table 67: Type 2 Diabetes Market - Drivers and Barriers in India, 2012 153
Table 68: Number of High-Prescribing Physicians Surveyed 194



List of Figures

Figure 1: ADA/EASD General Recommendations for Antihyperglycemic Therapy 25
Figure 2: Competitive Assessment of Late-Stage Pipeline Agents in Type 2 Diabetes, 2012-2022 124
Figure 3: Sales for Type 2 Diabetes in India by Drug Class, 2012-2022 152
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