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Switzerland Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Report Q1 2013

  • Publication Date:January 2013
  • Publisher:Business Monitor
  • Product Type: Report
  • Pages:86
  • ISBN:170580

Switzerland Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Report Q1 2013

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: While the patent cliff and the consequent availability of generic drugs, as well as price cuts on
generic medicines and their increasing affordability, will work towards increasing the consumption of
generic medicines in Switzerland, BMI believes the government needs to do more to alter patients' attitudes
towards these drugs as this is the main growth deterrent.

Headline Expenditure Projections
- Pharmaceuticals: CHF6.77bn (US$7.63bn) in 2011 to CHF6.58bn (US$7.00bn) in 2012; -2.8% decline
in local currency terms and -8.3% in US dollar terms.
- Healthcare: CHF65.30bn (US$73.8bn) in 2011 to CHF67.56bn (US$71.87bn) in 2012; +3.5% growth in
local currency terms and -2.6% in US dollar terms.
- Medical devices: CHF4.77bn (US$5.38bn) in 2011 to CHF4.76bn (US$5.06bn) in 2012; -0.3% growth
in local currency terms and -5.9% in US dollar terms.

Risk/Reward Ratings: In BMI's Q113 risk/reward ratings (RRRs) for Western Europe, Switzerland has
maintained its position as the top market in the Western Europe matrix, above the UK and France.
Switzerland's score for the quarter stands at 70.9, well above the regional average of 65.8. However, BMI
anticipates that Switzerland may slip down the world rankings in the medium to long term as large, highgrowth
emerging markets such as Brazil and China become more alluring to multinational drugmakers.

Key trends and developments in the sector:
- Roche's 9M12 group sales reached CHF33.7bn (US$35.9bn), a 7% year-on-year (y-o-y) increase in local
currency terms (0% in US dollars and +4% at constant exchange rate), from CHF31.5bn (US$35.8bn) in
9M11.
- Noavrtis' Q312 group sales reached US$13.8bn, a 7.0% decrease in US dollar terms and a 2% decrease
in constant currency terms (cc) from US$14.8bn in Q311. The decline in group sales was contributed by
the decline in sales from all business units: pharmaceuticals, the Alcon and Sandoz subsidiaries, the
consumer health segment, and vaccines and diagnostics.

BMI Economic View: Having languished in deflationary territory for nearly a year, the Swiss consumer
price index appears to be turning a corner. Some let-up in the eurozone debt crisis following a bold policy
response from the European Central Bank, coupled with ultra low policy rates and a potential increase in
domestic food prices, would support a return to inflation in 2013. We warn, however, that risks remain to
the downside, with potential for a renewed flare up in the eurozone or a hard landing in China, in turn
spurring foreign demand for the franc and pushing up the real effective exchange rate.

BMI Political View: With fiscal austerity biting hard in much of Europe, calls to clamp down on tax exiles
have grown louder. This presents the Swiss government with an increasingly uncomfortable dilemma as it
attempts to balance the demands of the country's biggest cash cow and the mounting pressure from foreign
governments seeking to boost revenue collection. Given the growing list of governments seeking to clamp
down on tax avoiders, the Swiss government is likely to push ahead quickly to sign bilateral deals now in
order to avoid more punitive agreements further down the road, which could compromise the confidentiality
of bank accounts held in the country.
BMI Industry View ...... 7
Executive Summary ... 7
SWOT ... 9
Switzerland Pharmaceuticals And Healthcare Industry SWOT 9
Industry Forecast ..... 11
Overall market Forecast ... 11
Key Growth Factors - Industry .. 13
Table: Table: Healthcare Expenditure Indicators 2009-2016 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15
Table: Table: Healthcare Governmental Indicators 2009-2016 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16
Table: Table: Healthcare Private Indicators 2009-2016 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16
Economic Analysis .. 16
Table: Macro Indicators . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21
Prescription Drug Market Forecast ... 22
Table: Table: Prescription Drug Sales Indicators 2009-2016 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23
Patented Drug Market Forecast 24
Table: Table: Patented Drug Market Indicators 2009-2016 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25
Generic Drug Market Forecast . 25
Table: Table: Generic Drug Sales Indicators 2009-2016 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28
OTC Medicine Market Forecast 28
Table: Table: OTC Medicine Sales Indicators 2009-2016 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29
Pharmaceutical Trade Forecast 30
Table: Table: Exports and Imports Indicators 2009-2016 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31
Medical Device Market Forecast ....... 32
Table: Table: Medical Devices Sales Indicators 2009-2016 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33
Other Healthcare Data Forecasts ...... 33
Industry Risk Reward Ratings 36
Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Ratings . 36
Table: Western Europe Pharmaceuticals And Healthcare Risk/Reward Ratings, Q113 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 36
Market Overview ...... 39
Market Overview .... 39
Industry Trends And Developments ..... 41
Industry Trends And Developments .... 41
Table: 2013: Health Insurance Premiums . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 42
Regulatory Development 50
Regulatory Regime .. 50
Competitive Landscape .. 58
Competitive Landscape ..... 58
Company Profile ....... 61
Novartis . 61
Roche .... 65
Merck Serono . 68
GlaxoSmithKline .... 71
Pfizer .... 74
Sanofi .... 76
Merck & Co .... 78
Methodology ..... 80
Methodology ... 80
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology ... 80
Ratings Overview .. 81
Table: Pharmaceutical Business Environment Indicators . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 81
Weighting ..... 82
Table: Weighting Of Components . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 82
Sources 82
Glossary ..... 84
Glossary 84
Demographic Forecast ... 86
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