Mobile WiMAX Market Forecasts to 2012

With Comparisons to LTE or 4G

Publication Date	February 2007
Publisher	Visiongain
Product Type	Report
Pages	122
ISBN Number	not applicable
Product Code	VIS00042

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Mobile wimax equipment which utilize beam-forming and MIMO technologies will become available towards the end of this year. Broadband wireless deployments using pre-802.16e compliant equipment have already begun. In Korea both KT and SK Telecom have implemented mobile broadband wireless networks in specific locations throughout the country.

Sprint/Nextel are deploying an 802.16e compliant mobile wimax network which will reach 100 million Americans by the end of 2008. BT will bid for 2.5GHz RF spectrum in the Ofcom auctions which will take place towards the end of the year 2007. Gaining such spectrum will allow the incumbent to deploy an efficient wimax service and compete with companies such as Vodafone for triple play services. Cable companies are gradually acquiring spectrum and are looking at distributing their content to mobile devices. Greenfield operators are expected to utilize mobile wimax technology in order to secure a 3G/4G market position by attracting consumers with an early new level of service. Clearwire is such a carrier with operations in the United States, Denmark, Belgium, Ireland and in Mexico (via MVSnet).

Equipment manufacturers are becoming increasingly active in mobile wimax. Vendors such as Samsung, Nortel Networks, Alcatel and Nokia-Siemens Networks are all involved in 802.16e projects globally. Motorola have just announced a major deal in Pakistan. Companies that have been heavily involved in operator proprietary broadband wireless implementations such as Alvarion and Proxim are also developing 802.16e compliant platforms. Various chipset providers such as Wavesat, Runcom Technologies and Beceem Communications are developing OFDMA chips and are testing their products for interoperability with solutions from other vendors. Dual mode handsets will be very popular with mobile wimax deployments with GSM/OFDMA and CDMA/OFDMA handsets dominating the market.

But there is confusion. Ericsson believe that by the year 2010 mobile wimax will account for only 5-10% of global broadband wireless revenues and are therefore more focused on broadband cellular technologies. Who is right? Availability of 2.5GHz spectrum is crucial to the success of mobile wimax particularly throughout the western world. In Europe HSPA is dominating the cellular market and this combined with the current unavailability of 2.5GHz spectrum throughout most of the continent is leading to little interest from mobile operators. In the U.S a lot of the 2.5GHz spectrum is owned by Sprint. The carrier will start its deployment by using 10MHz channels to deliver services and could use even larger bandwidths in the future.

Throughout the developed parts of the world technologies such as 3GPP LTE and HSPA are expected to make a huge impact. HSPA operators will begin upgrading to LTE in 2009/2010 with subscribers exceeding 250 million by the year 2015. However as Vodafone's Arun Sarin points out, LTE is still being deliberate by GSM standards bodies, while WiMAX is available NOW.

This report not only discusses mobile wimax but also technologies beyond 3.5G (HSDPA and EV-DO Rev A) such as 3GPP LTE and Ultra Mobile Broadband. Developments in the core network as networks move towards fixed mobile convergence and the IMS are analyzed. The market opportunities of fixed and mobile wimax technologies for each geographical region are looked at in detail. The impact of LTE and UMB on markets is also included in this report.

This report ensures you:

Maximize your revenues from both business and and consumer Wimax and converged services
Segment your market effectively, targetting market expenditure where you will achieve the best ROI
Understand how Wimax, LTE and convergence will effect your revenues, subscriber acquisition and retention
Develop best practice strageties from peer case-studies

Content

1. Introduction
- 1.1 History of WiMAX
  - Table 1: History of WiMAX
- 1.2 Overview of the evolution of cellular communications
  - 1.2.1 Enhanced 3G cellular Networks
    - Table 2: Data Rates of various high speed 3G technologies
- 1.3 Wi-Fi and WiMAX
  - Table 3: Wi-Fi and WiMAX similarities and differences
- 1.4 The WiMAX and mobile WiMAX standard
- 1.5 Market for WIMAX
  - 1.5.1 WiMAX applied to data backhauling
    - Chart 1: Rise in the number of worldwide wireless hotspots 2004-2007
- 1.6 The need for Mobile WiMAX
- 1.7 WiBro
- 1.8 Mobile WiMAX and HSDPA
- 1.9 Cellular high speed technologies of the future
  - 1.9.1 3GPP LTE (Long Term Evolution Radio)
  - 1.9.2 UMB (Ultra Mobile Broadband)
- 1.10 Scope of this report
2. Technical Focus
- 2.1 Modulation techniques
  - 2.1.1 OFDM
    - Figure 2: Orthogonal Frequency Division Multiplex
  - 2.1.2 OFDMA
    - 2.1.2.1 SOFDMA and its advantages
  - 2.1.3 Single Carrier FDMA
- 2.3 MIMO (multiple input/multiple output)
  - 2.3.1 MIMO and mobile WiMAX
    - Table 4: Capacity and peak data rate increase achieved in mobile WiMAX through the use of MIMO
- 2.4 Beam-forming
  - 2.4.1 Beam-forming and MIMO
  - 2.4.2 The Uplink and Smart Beam-forming
- 2.5 Duplexing Schemes
  - 2.5.1 FDD (Frequency Division Duplex)
    - Figure 3: The FDD process
  - 2.5.2 TDD (Time Division Duplex)
    - Figure 4: The Dynamic bandwidth allocation process in TDD
  - 2.5.3 HFDD (Half Duplex FDD)
- 2.6 TDD vs FDD
  - 2.6.1 Hardware Costs of TDD and FDD systems compared
- 2.7 Hybrid ARQ
- 2.8 The WiMAX network architecture
  - 2.8.1 The mobile WiMAX core network
    - Figure 5: Mobile WiMAX network architecture
- 2.9 QoS in mobile WiMAX
- 2.10 The WiMAX certification process
- 2.11 Future Core Networks
  - Figure 6: The networks of the future
- 2.12 Multimedia handover between various access networks
  - Figure 7: Operation of the media independent handover function
- 2.13 IPv6
  - 2.13.1 IPv6 and 3GPP
  - 2.13.2 IPv6 and 4G
- 2.14 3GPP LTE (Long Term Evolution Radio)
  - 2.14.1 Targets of the LTE initiative
    - Table 6: LTE targets for the uplink compared to HSUPA
  - 2.14.2 LTE operation
  - 2.14.3 MIMO and Beam-forming in LTE
  - 2.14.4 LTE network architecture
    - Figure 8: LTE network architecture
- 2.15 UMB (Ultra Mobile Broadband)
3. Spectrum
- 3.1 Spectrum allocated for 3GPP LTE
- 3.2 Spectrum allocated for Ultra Mobile Broadband
- 3.3 Spectrum allocated for WiMAX
  - Figure 9: WiMAX spectrum allocations
- 3.4 Licensed spectrum advantages
- 3.5 Unlicensed spectrum advantages
- 3.6 The 2.5GHz Band
  - 3.6.1 Regulatory issues surround the use of 2.5GHz for WiMAX purposes
    - 3.6.1.1 China and India
  - 3.6.2 Planned 2.5GHz Spectrum Auctions in key markets
    - 3.6.2.1 The UK
    - 3.6.2.2 Sweden
    - 3.6.2.3 Norway
    - 3.6.2.4 Russia
  - 3.6.3 Current availability of the 2.5GHz band in key markets
- 3.7 The 3.5GHz band
  - 3.7.1 Regulatory issues surround the use of 3.5GHz for WiMAX purposes
  - 3.7.2 Vendor strategies for 3.5GHz 802.16e compliant products
- 3.8 The 5.8GHz band
- 3.9 Other frequencies that could be used for mobile-WiMAX
- 3.10 Spectrum Costs
  - 3.10.1 Cost of 3G licenses vs WiMAX licenses
    - Table 7: Comparative cost of 3G licenses vs WiMAX licenses
4. Operator Strategies
- 4.1 Who will deploy mobile WiMAX?
  - 4.1.1 New Carriers and I.S.P's
    - 4.1.1.1 U.K Broadband and Pipex
    - 4.1.1.2 WiMAX Telecom
    - 4.1.1.3 Clearwire
    - 4.1.1.3.1 Clearwire in Denmark
    - 4.1.1.3.2 Clearwire in Ireland
    - 4.1.1.3.3 Clearwire in Belgium
    - 4.1.1.3.4 Clearwire in US
    - 4.1.1.3.5 Clearwire VoIP services
    - 4.1.1.4 Inukshuk Wireless
    - 4.1.1.5 Drivers to deploy mobile WiMAX
  - 4.1.2 Carriers that need more bandwidth and want to add mobility to their services
    - 4.1.2.1 Cable operators
    - 4.1.2.1.1 The use of PCMM in Cable
    - 4.1.2.2 Fixed Operators
    - 4.1.2.2.1 Korea Telecom
      - Table 8: Current Korea Telecom pricing models for the WiBro service
    - 4.1.2.2.2 Key Drivers for Fixed Operators to Deploy mobile WiMAX
  - 4.1.3 Cellular Operators
    - 4.1.3.1 Sprint/Nextel
    - 4.1.3.2 Wateen Telecom
    - 4.1.3.3 SK Telecom
    - 4.1.3.4 3G operators
    - 4.1.3.4.1 Key Drivers for 3G operators to deploy mobile WiMAX
  - 4.1.4 MVNO's
- 4.2 Roaming
- 4.3 From 2G to 802.16e
- 4.4 Upgrading to 3GPP LTE
- 4.5 Operator Strategies to mobile WiMAX
  - Chart 2: Estimated percentage of mobile WiMAX deployments by each type of operator up to 2010
  - 4.5.1 WiMAX Operator strategies towards pricing of services
- 4.6 Applications enabled through the use of the 3GPP LTE standard
- 4.7 Applications enabled through the use of the mobile WiMAX standard
- 4.8 Quad-Play and mobile WiMAX
- 4.9 Content Providers
5. Vendor Strategies and Products
- 5.1 Alvarion
  - 5.1.1 Alvarion's Breeze Max
  - 5.1.2 Alvarion offers 4Motion
- 5.2 Navini Networks
  - 5.2.1 Navini Smart WiMAX
- 5.3 Proxim
  - 5.3.1 The Tsunami MP.16
- 5.4 Nera Networks
- 5.5 Motorola
  - 5.5.1 Significant 3G bypass contract
  - 5.5.2 Chipsets and alliances
- 5.6 Siemens
  - 5.6.1 Nokia-Siemens Networks
  - 5.6.2 3GPP LTE Hong Kong Trial
  - 5.6.3 WayMAX and mobile WiMAX
- 5.7 Ericsson
- 5.8 Nortel Networks
- 5.9 Alcatel-Lucent
- 5.10 Samsung
  - Table 9: Various WiMAX deployments and trials using Samsung equipment
- 5.11 Airspan
- 5.12 General Considerations for efficient 802.16e compliant chipset design
- 5.13 Mobile WiMAX chipset vendors
  - 5.13.1 Runcom Technologies
  - 5.13.2 Wavesat
  - 5.13.3 Beceem Communications
- 5.14 Mobile WiMAX terminals
- 5.15 LTE Terminals
- 5.16 Base-station Costs
- 5.17 Overview of Vendor Strategies
6. Market Opportunities and Forecasts
- 6.1 Worldwide market for mobile and fixed WiMAX
  - Chart 4: Forecast for the revenues generated by WiMAX and mobile WiMAX subscribers globally
- 6.2 WIMAX Business and Residential Opportunities
- 6.3 Worldwide market for 3GPP LTE and UWB
  - Chart 6: Estimated percentage of North-American and Asia-Pacific UMB deployments up to 2013
- 6.4 Fixed and Mobile WiMAX market opportunities throughout the developing world
  - 6.4.1 Africa
    - Chart 7: Estimated number of WiMAX and mobile WiMAX subscribers throughout Africa 2007-2012
  - 6.4.2 India and China
- 6.5 Asia Pacific
  - Chart 8: Estimated number of WiMAX and mobile WiMAX subscribers throughout the Asia-Pacific region 2007-2012
- 6.6 Europe
  - Chart 10: Forecast for the number of WiMAX and mobile WiMAX subscribers throughout Europe 2007-2012
- 6.7 Latin America
  - Chart 11: Forecast for the number of WiMAX and mobile WiMAX subscribers throughout Latin America 2007-2012
- 6.8 North America
  - Chart 12: Forecast for the number of WiMAX and mobile WiMAX subscribers throughout North America 2007-2012
7. Conclusions
List of Companies
- 3GPP
- ABB Networks
- Accan Networks
- Aircell
- Aircell Business Solutions
- Airspan Networks
- Alcatel-Lucent
- Alvarion
- Arab Telecom
- Arcor
- Arialink
- Asia Pacific Telecom Group
- AT&T
- Bayanat-al-Oula
- Beceem
- Beijing Airway Comms
- Bell Canada
- BellSouth
- BrightHouse Networks
- BT
- Butler Networks
- Buzz Regional Broadband
- Camiant
- Chunghwa Telecom
- Cingular Wireless
- Cisco
- Clearwire
- ComCast
- Cox Communications
- Danske Telecom
- Deutsche Breitband Dienste
- Direct on PC
- Eion Wireless
- Ericsson
- EtiSalat
- ETRI
- European Commission
- Finnet
- Flarion
- France Telecom
- Global Crossing
- GlobalCom Data Services
- GlobeTel Wireless
- GSM Association
- H1
- Hanaro Telecom
- Hellosoft
- Huawei Technologies
- IEEE
- Indian Department of Space
- Indian Telecom Regulatory Authority
- Inquam Broadband
- Intel
- Internet Ghana
- Inukshuk Wireless
- Irish Broadband
- KDDI
- Korea Telecom
- KT FreeTel
- LG
- LG Electronics
- LG Telecom
- Max Telecom
- Microcom
- Microsoft
- MobilCom
- Motorola
- MSpot
- Navini Networks
- Nera Networks
- NewStep Networks
- NextNet Wireless
- NFL Mobile
- Nokia
- Nokia-Siemens Networks
- Nortel Networks
- NT
- NTL
- NTT DoCoMo
- O2
- Ofcom
- Omniglobe Networks
- Omnivision
- Orange
- Orbitel
- Orza
- Pipex
- PostBro
- Powercomm
- Proxim
- PTS
- PuntoNet
- Q-Tel
- Qualcomm
- Qwest
- Rogers Communications
- Runcom Technologies
- Russian State Commission of Radio Frequencies
- Samsung
- SBC
- Siemens
- SK Telecom
- Sprint Nextel
- Start Telecom
- Telecom Italia
- Telefonica
- TeliaSonera
- Texas Instruments
- Time-Warner Cable
- T-Mobile
- TVA
- U.K Broadband
- Unwired Australia
- US Department of Defense
- US FCC
- Verizon
- Verizon Wireless
- Virgin Media
- Virgin Mobile
- Virgin Mobile U.S.A
- Vodafone
- Wateen Telecom
- WaveIP
- Wavesat
- WiMAX Forum
- WiMAX Telecom
- Yozan