2008 Australia - Mobile and Wireless Broadband

Publication Date	April 2008
Publisher	BuddeComm
Product Type	Report
Pages	139
ISBN Number	not applicable
Product Code	BUD00260

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Summary

The fact that the progress in wireless broadband is so painfully slow is creating anxiety in the market. An ongoing information war is being waged around the developments in the wireless broadband market.

Fixed wireless broadband seems to have found its niche in some of the regional markets, often helped by government funding. Mobile broadband is still an uncertain area, especially now that 3G-based data services are improving so quickly. If any serious mass market developments are going to take place for WiMAX we will still have to wait a few more years. It is more likely that WiMAX, both in the fixed wireless and the mobility market, will only be a niche product. This report analyses the pros, cons and potential of this market.

However, it appears that in 2008 there will again be considerably more talk than action. The collapse of the OPEL project in early 2008 is a major setback for WiMAX, and not just in Australia. This will impact on Unwired, which had hoped to ride on the back of an OPEL rollout, and Austar, which would have been able to commercialise its spectrum. It will be interesting to observe what Unwired, Seven and Austar do next.

Allegro, BigAir and Clever are niche market players which are steadily extending their wireless reach in the market. Wireless developments in the utilities market are also interesting.

The market for wireless broadband is too small to enable any meaningful predictions. There are still too many ifs and buts and these will influence the ultimate direction it will take. Fixed wireless broadband is developing in certain niche markets, such as regional services and business and campus applications, and will perhaps be able to capture around 10% of the total fixed broadband market.

Mobile broadband is a nebulous market millions of people have the potential to use it but actual usage is still relatively low. However, it is totally driven by price, so a price war could see this market skyrocket in a very short space of time. Eventually, in about five years, what we now call the mobile market will be a wireless market, with perhaps the majority of usage being connected with broadband services rather than voice services. By that time we will be talking about a $15 billion market.

Key highlights

The fixed wireless broadband market will grow only marginally over 2008, with potentially higher growth expected in 2009. Its potential over the next three to five years might be around one million users.
In this market the future of WiMAX will rest in the niche markets. If it can be deployed rapidly it could take a 25% share of the fixed broadband market; longer-term however, more like a 10-15% market share.
Other worthwhile niche markets are corporate and campus networks, where wireless deployment can be done at 20% of the cost of a fixed rollout.
Over the next five years the mobile market will be transformed into a wireless broadband market, with revenues mainly coming from wireless broadband applications. By then it will be worth $15 billion.
This market will be dominated by 3G HSPA, followed by LTE, with WiMAX playing only a minor role.
Unwired has been underperforming and it is unlikely that this will change during 2008. Its future will depend on how well it can (perhaps with the assistance of its new shareholder, The Seven Network) fight for a better share of this market.
The smaller players have been more successful. They have basically concentrated on niche markets in regional, business and campus networks.
WiFi continues to be a quiet achiever. Its coverage is still increasing, particularly in a more competitive mobile market, with more need for differentiation and innovation. There is room for WiFi to play an even more important role as this market moves forward.
If there is any potential for WiMAX it will be in a structurally separated mobile environment where it can add its specific technological benefits to the developers of innovative wireless broadband applications timeframe 2012-2015.

Content

1. Wireless Broadband Developments - 2008
- 1.1 First WiMAX services
- 1.2 OPEL Wireless
  - 1.2.1 New regional network tinclude WiMAX
- 1.3 Wireless security under scrutiny
- 1.4 Seven, engine and Unwired
- 1.5 Vodafone predicts a WiMAX revolution
- 1.6 Vendor war - HSDPA versus WiMAX
- 1.7 Wireless utilities
  - 1.7.1 Smart grid developments
  - 1.7.2 Energy Australia's WiMAX smart grid
- 1.8 New spectrum planning approach - 2008
2. Wireless Broadband Analyses - 2008
- 2.1 Analysis early 2008
  - 2.1.1 The ongoing promise of 3G
  - 2.1.2 Flawed mobile data business models
  - 2.1.3 WiMAX dedicated data network
  - 2.1.4 The power of the mobile operators
  - 2.1.5 VoIP: the wild card
  - 2.1.6 Will HSDPA dthe trick for the mobile operators
  - 2.1.7 Wireless partnerships
  - 2.1.8 Mobile TV and WiMAX could be a good match
  - 2.1.9 Universal WiMAX service devices
  - 2.1.10 A $15 billion market by 2015
- 2.2 Partnership ends - Sprint Nextel and Clearwire
  - 2.2.1 Sprint's flawed business plan for WiMAX
- 2.3 Room for free wireless broadband
- 2.4 From WiMAX and 3G t4G mobile
  - 2.4.1 Service evolution
  - 2.4.2 How tmove forward
  - 2.4.3 Vindicated, 4G is arriving earlier
3. Statistical Overview & Forecasts
- 3.1 Overall wireless broadband market statistics
- 3.2 Fixed wireless broadband statistics
  - 3.2.1 Introduction
  - 3.2.2 Wireless broadband provider statistics and overview
  - 3.2.3 Market forecasts
- 3.3 Mobility market
  - 3.3.1 Battle with the fixed operators
  - 3.3.2 Valued between $10 and $15 billion
  - 3.3.3 Revenue forecasts
4. Spectrum and Regulations
- 4.1 New innovative spectrum direction
  - 4.1.1 Introduction and analysis
  - 4.1.2 Wireless explosion requires a rethink
  - 4.1.3 ACMA's innovative spectrum plans
  - 4.1.4 Spectrum harmonisation
- 4.2 Follow up developments and analyses
  - 4.2.1 Shame on you, wireless industry
  - 4.2.2 Monopoly or shared national asset
5. The OPEL Network
- 5.1 Broadband Connect
  - 5.1.1 Regional wholesale access network
  - 5.1.2 Broadband Connect contract
- 5.2 OPEL Regional Broadband Network
  - 5.2.1 Introduction
  - 5.2.2 Backbone network
  - 5.2.3 OPEL Wireless
  - 5.2.4 OPEL ADSL2+
  - 5.2.5 Opel may be required treplicate Unwired's WiMAX solution
- 5.3 Analyses of the OPEL and Australia Connected plans
  - 5.3.1 A good step forwards
  - 5.3.2 Telstra now forced tstrike back
  - 5.3.3 Mix of infrastructure deployments
  - 5.3.4 What next Telstra
  - 5.3.5 Now we alshave a vendor war - HSDPA versus WiMAX
- 5.4 OPEL Analysis - Postmortem
6. Wireless Broadband Projects
- 6.1 Allegro
- 6.2 Austar
  - 6.2.1 Background & History
  - 6.2.2 Wireless Broadband for Wagga Wagga
- 6.3 BigAir
  - 6.3.1 Overview
  - 6.3.2 Wireless network
  - 6.3.3 WiMAX network
  - 6.3.4 BigAir company history
  - 6.3.5 W Home acquisition
  - 6.3.6 WiMAX launch in Melbourne
- 6.4 BT australia
- 6.5 ClearTowns
- 6.6 Clever Communications Australia (previously Access Providers)
- 6.7 COLT Ballarat
- 6.8 Commander - Personal Broadband Australia (PBA)
- 6.9 CountryTell - Albury/Wodonga
- 6.10 Digital River - wireless broadband developments
- 6.11 Homexone
- 6.12 Internode
- 6.13 IPWireless for Townsville
- 6.14 Metromesh WiFi network within Perth CBD
- 6.15 Neighbourhood Cable
- 6.16 Optus
  - 6.16.1 OPEL Wireless
  - 6.16.2 WiFi
  - 6.16.3 Other activities
- 6.17 Pacnet
- 6.18 Telstra
  - 6.18.1 WiFi hotspots
- 6.19 Unwired
  - 6.19.1 The largest player in the market
  - 6.19.2 Expansion
  - 6.19.3 Unwired troll out 802.16e (mobile WiMAX)
  - 6.19.4 Network Seven purchases Unwired
- 6.20 Vertel
- 6.21 Wireless Broadband Alliance (WiFi/WLAN)
- 6.22 Wizz Communications
7. WiFi HotSpot Market
- 7.1 WiFi market in 2008 - analysis
- 7.2 Market statistics
  - 7.2.1 User statistics
  - 7.2.2 Hotspot statistics
- 7.3 IEEE 802.11 - WiFi
- 7.4 Regulatory issues
  - 7.4.1 Unlicensed
  - 7.4.2 Amateurs and hobbyists
- 7.5 Industry analyses - 2008
  - 7.5.1 Public hotspots for consumers a waste of money
  - 7.5.2 Wireless broadband - mobile integration (4G)
- 7.6 Market analyses - 2008
  - 7.6.1 Great niche market opportunities
  - 7.6.2 Build your own WiFi business
  - 7.6.3 Holiday destination market
- 7.7 Meshed networks
- 7.8 Azure Wireless
  - 7.8.1 Company overview
  - 7.8.2 Acquisition by MagiNet
  - 7.8.3 Network and Hotzones
  - 7.8.4 Partnerships and alliances
  - 7.8.5 Services and roaming
  - 7.8.6 Company history
- 7.9 cityNEX Telemetric Media Information Pty Ltd
- 7.10 Internode
  - 7.10.1 CityLan Adelaide
  - 7.10.2 WiFi Network for CibEspresso
- 7.11 interTouch
- 7.12 metromesh
- 7.13 Optus
- 7.14 Telstra
  - 7.14.1 Hotspot coverage
  - 7.14.2 Cost
- 7.15 Hotspots in the hospitality industry
8. Wireless Mobility Market Overview
- 8.1 Mobile market
- 8.2 Mobility applications
- 8.3 Personal wireless broadband market analysis 2008
  - 8.3.1 Business models more important than technologies
  - 8.3.2 Competition needed tchange the mobile model
  - 8.3.3 Will WiMAX deliver
  - 8.3.4 Not being seen tbe bored
  - 8.3.5 Smart wireless devices
- 8.4 Mobility devices
  - 8.4.1 The communications market of tomorrow
  - 8.4.2 Moore's Law: storage, access, processing
  - 8.4.3 Bringing the future back home
- 8.5 Bluetooth
  - 8.5.1 Overview
  - 8.5.2 The technology has found its place
  - 8.5.3 Bluepulse
- 8.6 Unwired troll out 802.16e
- 8.7 Ultra Wideband (UWB)
  - 8.7.1 Developments in Australia
  - 8.7.2 Regulatory issues
9. Mobile Data - HSDPA
- 9.1 4G LTE and 3G HSPA at 42Mb/s
- 9.2 HSPA, HSDPA, HSUPA
- 9.3 Australia's start with HSDPA
  - 9.3.1 3G HSDPA steaming ahead
- 9.4 HSDPA developments
  - 9.4.1 Telstra
  - 9.4.2 Hutchison
  - 9.4.3 Vodafone
  - 9.4.4 Optus
  - 9.4.5 Ericsson's broadband activities using HSPA
  - 9.4.6 Neutral broadband connections for HSDPA
  - 9.4.7 HSPA threat tSMS - analysis
  - 9.4.8 Vendor war - HSPA versus WiMAX - analysis
- 9.5 Study reveals positive impact by Next G
- 9.6 Will HSPA break through intthe broadband market
10. M-Commerce
- 10.1 Mobile marketing
- 10.2 Mobile advertising
- 10.3 Mobile media
- 10.4 M-commerce developments and forecasts
  - 10.4.1 Business applications
  - 10.4.2 Residential applications based on permission-based marketing
  - 10.4.3 SMS driven an early contender
- 10.5 Mobile banking
11. Mobile TV
- 11.1 The market in 2007
- 11.2 Major players
  - 11.2.1 Hutchison's 3
  - 11.2.2 Vodafone
  - 11.2.3 BigPond mobile TV
  - 11.2.4 Optus
  - 11.2.5 Device driven developments
  - 11.2.6 Industry under pressure
- 11.3 Spectrum for mobile broadcasting
  - 11.3.1 TV Channels A and B for digital services
- 11.4 Mobile Broadcast Multicast Service (MBMS)
- 11.5 Key market 13-19 year olds
- 11.6 DVB-H
  - 11.6.1 Overview
  - 11.6.2 DVB-H trials
- 11.7 Telstra pulls out of movemedia trial
- 11.8 Analysis of video-based mobile developments
  - 11.8.1 Mobile TV - are you serious
  - 11.8.2 The future indeed is videcommunications
  - 11.8.3 Mobile videhas been over-hyped
  - 11.8.4 Financial and technical limitations
  - 11.8.5 Competing technologies
  - 11.8.6 Regulation-driven competition
  - 11.8.7 Checking market realities
- 11.9 Mobile TV and WiMAX could be a good match
12. Telemetry, Location Services, RFID
- 12.1 The Internet of Things
- 12.2 Machine-to-machine transmission
- 12.3 Telemetry
- 12.4 RadiFrequency Identification (RFID)
  - 12.4.1 RFID - a business revolution
  - 12.4.2 Rapidly maturing technology
  - 12.4.3 Developments in Australia
  - 12.4.4 RFID experimental licences
  - 12.4.5 Industry association
- 12.5 Telemetry statistics (traditional market)
  - 12.5.1 Utilities telemetering
  - 12.5.2 Mobile-based telemetry
- 12.6 Location-based services (LBS)
  - 12.6.1 Mobile origin location indicator and emergency
  - 12.6.2 Developments in the USA
  - 12.6.3 Developments in Australia
  - 12.6.4 Seeker Wireless Pty Ltd
  - 12.6.5 Intelligent Transport Systems (ITS)
  - 12.6.6 Cell broadcasting trial from Seven Network - 1998
  - 12.6.7 The My Vodafone service
  - 12.6.8 Location and navigation from Sensis
  - 12.6.9 Mobile Location Manager from Telstra
  - 12.6.10 Optus ZoFindA
- 12.7 Car navigation systems
  - 12.7.1 Early results
  - 12.7.2 Market gathering pace in 2007
  - 12.7.3 Analysis
13. High-Speed Satellite Services
- 13.1 Historic overview
- 13.2 Satellite remains niche business
- 13.3 Broadband is threatening satellite TV
- 13.4 Broadband Guarantee
- 13.5 Market forecasts
- 13.6 Satellite services from Telstra
  - 13.6.1 Introduction
  - 13.6.2 Iterra Satellite Service - mobile satellite communications
  - 13.6.3 Telstra BigPond Satellite
  - 13.6.4 Telstra places an order with Iridium Based Satellite
- 13.7 BorderNET Internet
- 13.8 Elders Ltd
- 13.9 SES New Skies
- 13.10 Optus Satellite services
  - 13.10.1 Overview
  - 13.10.2 The satellites
  - 13.10.3 The Optus satellites
  - 13.10.4 The Earth stations
  - 13.10.5 Satellite history t2007
  - 13.10.6 Optus MobileSat
  - 13.10.7 Wireless broadband communities
  - 13.10.8 Pay TV services
- 13.11 NewSat Ltd
  - 13.11.1 Major features
- 13.12 iPSTAR - Shin Satellite
  - 13.12.1 ETT - national provider of IPSTAR satellite
- 13.13 Inmarsat
- 13.14 Orion Satellite Systems pty ltd
- 13.15 ReachneT
14. Glossary of Abbreviations
- Table 1 - Wireless broadband subscribers by access type - 2006 - 2008
- Table 2 - Subscriber statistics by operator - mid-2007
- Table 3 - Number of ISPs by broadband service offered - 2006
- Table 4 - Forecast wireless penetration as percent of fixed broadband - 2005; 2010; 2015
- Table 5 - Forecast mobile wireless data and voice revenues - 2007; 2012; 2017
- Table 6 - Public WLAN or hotspot users - 2003 - 2008 (flawed forecasts)
- Table 7 - Large WiFi hotspot service providers - July 2006
- Table 8 - Telemetry devices - 1998; 2000; 2004
- Table 9 - Telemetry market - vertical market share forecast
- Exhibit 1 - OPEL contract cancelled - April 2008
- Exhibit 2 - Key issues for mobility industry
- Exhibit 3 - Bluetooth user statistics
- Exhibit 4 - Why mobile marketing won't work
- Exhibit 5 - Mobile TV minutes
- Exhibit 6 - Broadcast Australia DVB-H trials - 2005 - 2007
- Exhibit 7 - Service evolution vision