France Telecommunications Report Q1

The French telecommunications market continues to be relatively unaffected by the ongoing economic downturn, with the mobile and broadband markets seeing upward growth, albeit slower in some areas than in previous quarters. Whether this should be attributed to the usual Q3 slowdown - as customers prepare for the pre- and post-Christmas sales usually seen in the fourth quarter of the year - or whether the broader economic situation is finally beginning to impact on service take-up and usage remains to be seen.

In the mobile arena, blended ARPUs continue to fall, though less rapidly than before. This, it would seem, is due to the increased consumption of value-added services such as data and mobile internet. Results from market leaders Orange and SFR show that the proportion of mobile data services within their overall service revenues grew again in Q309, and this is helping to offset declines in voice ARPUs. The buoyancy of the French mobile market is again attributed to the heavy usage of postpaid services, with customers increasingly being tempted with a broad range of smartphones, in particular Apple's iPhone. SFR sold 500,000 iPhones to its subscribers by November 2009 and aims for sales of 600,000 by the end of the year.

The deadline for the submission of bids for France's fourth 3G licence passed with only one formal submission being presented to the authorities. Not unexpectedly, this came from broadband operator Iliad. The authorities seem keen to fast-track the licensing process, and France'sfourth mobile network operator was confirmed before the end of 2009. This could provide a fresh impetus for competitive pricing and service bundling, although BMI considers it unlikely that the new player will be able to make much of an impact before the end of 2010. In the meantime, there is still the possibility that the licensing process will be derailed or at least set back by legal challenges from other 3G licensees, incensed at the low price asked for the new licence.

Although Q309 data had not yet been published by ARCEP at the time of writing, BMI observes that the broadband market slowed its growth trajectory during the quarter, with a lacklustre showing recorded by the incumbent, slightly offset by strong performances by rivals such as Iliad and SFR. As in previous quarters, growth is being driven by usage of value-added services such as VoIP and IPTV. The switch to broadband means that the number of traditional PSTN/ISDN connections is declining, but in Q309 this rate of decline slowed markedly and we have had to revise slightly our forecasts for this area of the market. We have also had to rein in our forecasts for broadband subscribers and 3G users, again due to the slower than expected growth in the first three quarters of 2009.

• Executive Summary
• SWOT Analysis
• France Mobile Business Environment SWOT
• France Wireline Business Environment SWOT
• France Political SWOT
• France Economic SWOT
• Business Environment Analysis
• Western Europe
• France
  • Table: Western Europe Business Environment Rankings
• Industry Forecast Scenario
• Mobile
  • Table: France Telecom Sector – Mobile – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2007-2014
• Fixed Line
  • Table: France Telecom Sector – Fixed Line – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2003-2014
• Internet
  • Table: France Telecom Sector – Internet – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2007-2014
• Market Data Analysis
• Mobile
  • Table: France Mobile Market, Q309
  • Table: France Mobile Market Net Additions, Q109-Q309
• Subscriber Mix
  • Table: French Mobile Network Operator Subscriber Mix, Q309
• ARPU
  • Table: French Mobile Market Blended ARPU, Q208-Q408
• 3G
• Mobile Contract Wins
  • Table: France Mobile Contract Wins
• Mobile Content
• Regional Overview
• Importance of SMS Waning
• Mobile Portals
• Smartphones
• Mobile Broadband
• Country Focus
• Orange Broadband Subscribers (000)
• VAS Timeline
  • Table: VAS Timeline
• Mobile Data
  • Table: France Mobile Market Overview
  • Table: Orange
  • Table: SFR
  • Table: Bouygues
  • Table: MVNO
• Fixed Line
  • Table: French Fixed-Line Market, Q208-Q209
  • Table: French Fixed-Line Market, 2004-2008
• France Télécom Subscriber Base (mn)
• ARPU
• Local Loop Unbundling
• Functional Separation
• Internet
  • Table: French Internet Market, Q208-Q209
• France Télécom Internet Connections (000)
• The Broadband ‘Box'
• ARPU
• Broadband Technologies
• DSL
• WiMAX
• Fibre-Optic
• France Telecom FTTH
  • Table: Wireline Developments
• Regulatory Environment
  • Table: Division Of Regulatory Responsibilities In France
• Background And Regulatory Bodies
• Competition
• Regulatory Developments
• Competitive Landscape
• Market Overview
  • Table: Key Players – France Telecoms Sector
  • Table: Selected Operators Financial Indicators, 2005-2008
• Company Monitor
• Huawei Financial Performance, 2004-2008
  • Table: Huawei Recent Contract Wins in Western Europe
• Operator Profiles
• Appendix
• Regional Telecommunications Penetration Overview
• Fixed Line
  • Table: Regional Fixed-Line Penetration Overview
• Broadband
  • Table: Regional Broadband Penetration Overview
• Mobile
  • Table: Regional Mobile Penetration Overview
• Country Snapshot: France Demographic Data
• Section 1: Population
  • Table: Demographic Indicators, 2005-2030
  • Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown, 2005-2030
• Section 2: Education And Healthcare
  • Table: Education, 2002-2005
  • Table: Vital Statistics, 2005-2030
• Section 3: Labour Market And Spending Power
  • Table: Employment Indicators, 2000-2005
  • Table: Consumer Expenditure, 2000-2012 (US$)
  • Table: Average Annual Wages, 2000-2012
• Glossary Of Terms
  • Table: Glossary Of Terms
• BMI Methodology
• How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
  • Table: Key Indicators For Telecommunications Industry Forecasts
• Telecoms Business Environment Ratings
  • Table: Weighting Of Indicators
  • Table: Ratings Indicators
• Sources