Greece Telecommunications Report Q1 2008

In the first six months of 2007, the number of Greek mobile subscribers grew by 8.7% to reach 15.305mn.

Despite the already very high penetration rate, which is now over 137%, we envisage 2007 being another strong growth year for the Greek sector. Although we originally predicted a growth rate of 7.45% for 2007 as a whole, the higher than anticipated growth rates for Q107 and Q207 resulted in us making significant revisions to our forecast. Our latest set of forecast figures envisage a total of 15.963mn mobile subscribers by the end of 2007. This reflects a 2007 growth rate of 13.4%, which is similar to that experienced in 2006. By the end of 2007, Greek mobile penetration was expected to reach 143%.

Nevertheless, the reported operator figures continue to contain a significant number of inactive subscribers. Looking ahead, we anticipate that the operators may begin discounting inactive accounts from their figures, and this could lead to significant adjustments to our forecast data. In the meantime, prepaid customers continue to grow at a faster pace than postpaid subscribers, and this market feature continues to depress ARPU levels.

One of the biggest ongoing sagas in Greece's telecoms market concerns the future ownership of national incumbent operator OTE. Following the successful placement, in June 2007, of a 10.7% stake in national OTE, Greece's Finance Ministry announced in October 2007 that it would not 'actively seek' the further privatisation of the former monopoly telco. The government's attempts in early 2006 to attract a major European telecoms company to invest in OTE failed. However, at the end of September 2007, it was reported that Greek company Marfin Investment Group (MIG) was considering making a bid to acquire a controlling stake in OTE. MIG was reportedly considering the launch of a bid in the region of EUR2bn (US$2.8bn) for a 20% stake in OTE, which would include some management influence. It was also reported that MIG might participate in the possible placement of part of the government's 28% OTE stake. News reports have also mooted the possibility that MIG could seek a strategic partnership with a foreign telecoms operator, in order to gain overall control of the Greek incumbent.

Meanwhile, at the beginning of August 2007, it was reported that Greek electricity utility Public Power Corp (PPC) had accepted a EUR175mn (US$240mn) offer from telecoms holding company Weather Investments, for the acquisition of its 50%-minus-one-share stake in Greek alternative telco Tellas. The conclusion of deal ensures that Weather Investments, which is itself owned by Egyptian tycoon Naguib Sawiris, gains 100% ownership of Tellas. It also paves the way for Weather to offer bundled fixed-line and internet services, along with offerings from its recently acquired Greek mobile operator Wind Hellas (formerly TIM Hellas). Weather Investments previously paid US$3.4bn to acquire TIM Hellas and its subsidiary Q-Telecom from private equity firms Apax Partners and Texas Pacific in February 2007.

• Executive Summary
• Market Data Analysis
• Mobile
• Fixed-Line
• Internet
• Industry Developments
• Mobile Data
• Industry Forecast Scenario
• Mobile
• Fixed-Line
• Internet
• Business Environment
• Western Europe
• Greece
• SWOT Analysis
• Greece Telecommunications Industry SWOT Analysis
• Company Monitor
• Selected Profiles: Op33
• Hellenic Telecommunications Organisation (OTE)
• Vodafone
• WIND Hellas
• Appendix: Competitive Landscape
• Market Structure
• Key Players
• Fixed-Line
• Internet
• Mobile
• Macroeconomic Forecast Scenario
• BMI Forecast Modelling
• How we generate our industry forecasts
• Telecommunications Industry
• Sources
• List of Tables
• Table - Greece Mobile Market, Q207
  • Table: Greece Mobile Market Net Additions, Q207 vs. Q107 & 2006
  • Table: Greece Mobile Market Prepaid and Postpaid Subscribers, Q206 - Q207
  • Table: Greece Mobile Market, ARPU, 2005-07 (EUR/user/month)
  • Table: Cosmote
  • Table: Vodafone
  • Table: WIND Hellas
  • Table: Q-Telecom
  • Table: Telecoms Sector - Mobile - Historical Data & F
  • Table: Telecoms Sector - Fixed-Line - Historical Data & Forecasts
  • Table: Telecoms Sector - Internet - Historical Data & Forecasts
  • Table: Western Europe Business Environment Rankings
  • Table: Motorola Operating Results (US$)
  • Table: Global Mobile Shipments (mn Units)
  • Table: Key Players: Greece Telecoms Sector
  • Table: Selected Operator Financial Parameters
  • Table: Regional Fixed-Line Penetration Overview
  • Table: Regional Broadband Penetration Overview
  • Table: Regional Mobile Penetration Overview
  • Table: Greece - Economic Activity