Hong Kong Telecommunications Report Q4 2009

BMI's latest update on the telecommunications market of Hong Kong contains revised forecasts for the development of Hong Kong's fixed-line, mobile and broadband internet markets over the next five years.

This quarter, we have also introduced an additional forecast, which charts the development of mobile ARPU levels in the territory. ARPU levels in Hong Kong are currently being eroded by the general slowdown in the territory's economy and, in some cases, the accumulation of prepaid customers at the expense of postpaid growth.

Hong Kong's mobile subscriber base grew by 3.4% in the first five months of 2009. This growth rate was higher than we had expected. As a result, we have raised our expectations for the size of Hong Kong's mobile market at the end of 2008. We now anticipate mobile subscriber growth of around 7% for the year. Although penetration levels are high, reflecting the presence of a large number of multiple SIM owners, as well as inactive prepaid customers, most operators continue to report a steady expansion in the number of postpaid customers on their networks. Postpaid growth is being driven by a steady increase in the number of 3G customers. Hong Kong had just over 3mn 3G subscribers at the end of May 2009, reflecting growth of over 9% since the start of the year. We now predict that the 3G subscriber base will grow by 20% in 2009, a respectable growth rate although one which is notably lower compared with the previous year.

The latest data to be published by Hong Kong telecoms regulator OFTA shows that there were 1.974mn broadband internet subscribers in Hong Kong at the end of May 2009. The number broadband subscribers grew by 1.3% in the first five months of 2009. This relatively weak growth reflects the high penetration rate, which is already almost 28%. This quarter, we have downwardly adjusted our broadband forecast projections and now anticipate a 2.7% increase in the number of broadband subscribers. By the end of this year, we predict that the number of connections will reach 2mn. Growth will continue over the next five years, albeit at a limited rate.

Recent developments in Hong Kong's telecoms market include the announcement, in June 2009, that OFTA had awarded three existing operators, China Mobile Hong Kong (China Resources Peoples Telephone), PCCW Mobile and SmarTone, additional 1,800MHz spectrum. The three operators paid a total of HKD46mn (US$5.9mn) in upfront spectrum utilisation fees to gain access to 9.6MHz of radio spectrum in the 1,800MHz frequency band. Each operator will receive a separate 3.2MHz allocation.

Hong Kong has slipped from third to fifth place in BMI's latest set of business environment ratings for the Asia Pacific region. Although Hong Kong scores above average in the majority of categories surveyed in our business ratings for the Asia Pacific telecoms markets, the country's telecoms market score has fallen below the regional average for the first time.