Pakistan Telecommunications Report Q3 2009

Publication Date	June 2009
Publisher	Business Monitor
Product Type	Report
Pages	87
ISBN Number	not applicable
Product Code	BMI00258

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Summary

Pakistani incumbent operator PTCL will no longer have the upper hand in the broadband market. The Pakistan Telecommunications Authority (PTA) put an end to the operator's monopoly on internet bandwidth by announcing in May 2009, that both internet service providers (ISPs) and DSL operators were free to purchase bandwidth other than PTCL. Until then, alternative operators were restricted to procuring internet bandwidth from the incumbent alone, settling a two-year long dispute.

Demand for broadband has doubled over 2008. The total number of subscribers reached 267,180, up from 127,000, but still only reflecting a penetration rate of 0.2%. Cost remains the single largest barrier to growth. Greater competition in the bandwidth sector should bring overall tariffs down. On average broadband prices stand at US$16, twice that charged in India. In addition, the cost of PCs/laptops is a further burden, meaning that for the most part, the internet is accessed in educational institutions, organisations and internet cafes.

DSL remains the most widely available broadband platform, accounting for 59% of the total. This relies on fixed-line infrastructure, itself poor in availability, particularly where it is needed most, in remote and rural areas. Around two-thirds of Pakistanis live in rural areas. To this end, operators are now investing heavily into developing WiMAX technology, which can offer broadband services wirelessly. WiMAX is now the second most widely accessed form of broadband technology after DSL, having beaten Hybrid Fibre Coaxial (HFC).

Our expectations of the broadband market have been altered. We estimate a total of 627,000 at the end of 2009, accounting for 0.4% of the population. By 2013, we forecast 12%, with a total subscriber base of 21.3mn.

The fixed-line market on the other hand noted a significant decline in 2008, down by 12.8% to reach a total of 6.074mn. Fixed-line is quickly being neglected in favour of mobile services. This is due to their increasing affordability, while also offering better network coverage thanks to aggressive investments.

Again we have revised our forecasts for fixed-line and forecast that by the end of 2009, penetration rates will have reached 3.8% and falling to 2.8% by 2013.

Meanwhile, our extended sections on fixed-line and broadband have meant that our market analysis of the mobile sector remains unchanged, but will be given a full update in our Q409 report.

Content

Executive Summary
SWOT Analysis
Pakistan Wireline SWOT Analysis
Pakistan Mobile SWOT Analysis
Pakistan Political SWOT
Pakistan Economic SWOT
Pakistan Business Environment SWOT
Business Environment
Asia
Pakistan
- Table: Asia Telecoms Business Environment Rankings
Industry Forecast Scenario
Mobile
- Table: Pakistan Telecoms Sector - Mobiles - Historical Data & Forecasts
Fixed-Line
- Table: Pakistan Telecoms Sector - Fixed-Line/WLL - Historical Data & Forecasts
Internet
- Table: Pakistan Telecoms Sector - Internet - Historical Data & Forecasts
Market Data Analysis
Mobile
- Table: Pakistan Mobile Market, Net Additions Q4 2008
- Table: Pakistan Mobile Market, December 2008
- Table: Revenues From Data/Voice Services Per Mobile Operator, 2007
3G
Mobile Contract Wins
Table - Mobile Contract Wins
Mobile Content
Regional Outlook
- Table: Asia VAS Market By Service (2007)
Country Outlook
Value-Added Services Timeline
Table - Selected VAS Services (2008-09)
Mobile Operator Data
Pakistan Mobile Market Overview
Mobilink
Telenor
Ufone
Warid Telecom
Zong
Instaphone
Fixed-Line
- Table: Pakistan Fixed-Line Market, December 2008
Wireless Local Loop (WLL)
- Table: Pakistan Wireless Local Loop Market, April 2009
- Table: Pakistan Wireless Local Loop Market Net Additions, December 2008 - April 2009
WLL Total Traffic 2007 - 2008 (mn minutes)
Broadband
Broadband Platforms
Wireline Developments
Table - Wireline (Fixed-Line and Broadband) Developments
Regulatory Environment & Industry Developments
Pakistan: Regulatory Bodies And Their Responsibilities
Regulatory Developments
Competitive Landscape
Competitor Analysis
- Table: Key Companies - Pakistan Telecommunications Sector
Company Monitor
- Table: Nokia: Reported Q408 Results (EURmn)
Nokia Mobile Device By Geographic Area (mn units)
Nokia Siemens Networks Net Sales By Geography
Major Equipment And Services Awarded To Nokia (2007-09)
Selected Profiles - Operators
Appendix:
Key Players
Fixed-Line
- Table: Regional Fixed-Line Penetration Overview
Mobile
- Table: Regional Mobile Penetration Overview
Broadband
- Table: Regional Broadband Penetration Overview
Telecoms Business Environment Ratings Methodology
Ratings Overview
Weighting
Weighting
Indicators
Indicators
Country Snapshot: Pakistan Demographic Data
Section 1: Population
- Table: Demographic Indicators, 2005-2030
- Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown, 2005-2030
Section 2: Education And Healthcare
- Table: Education, 2002-2005
- Table: Vital Statistics, 2005-2030
- Table: Employment Indicators, 2001-2006
Section 3: Labour Market And Spending Power
- Table: Consumer Expenditure, 2000-2012 (US$)
- Table: Average Annual Manufacturing Wages, 2000-2012
BMI Telecoms Industry Glossary
- Table: Telecommunications Glossary Of Terms
BMI Forecast Modelling
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
Telecommunications Industry Forecast Table
Key Indicators
Business Environment Ratings
Sources