Singapore Telecommunications Report Q2 2008

Of note this quarter have been the significant changes made to internet/broadband forecasts. The drop in internet users during 2007 was much more pronounced than had been anticipated by BMI, with a decline of 30.6% y-o-y to reach 1.06mn. This compared to a fall of 5.9% y-o-y in 2006, while there was a 5.6% y-o-y decline in 2005. With such a significant decline in 2007, we expect a smaller fall in 2008 at 12.3% to reach 927,000, before gradually reaching 588,000 internet users by the end of our five-year forecast in 2012.

There are a number of reasons for this decline in internet take-up, which largely relate to the growing popularity of broadband tariffs, while the government has sought to proactively turn Singapore into a hub for high-speed broadband services and equipment. The state has already initiated a scheme under which wireless internet access via a Wi-Fi enabled mobile device or laptop is provided in Singapore free of charge between 2007 and 2009. The popularity of this has been reflected in the take-up of wireless broadband services, with a subscriber total of 2.384mn at the end of 2007, according to the IDA.

Mobile penetration rates reached 127% at the end of 2007, with SingTel, StarHub and M1 having contributed 983,000 new subscribers over the year. The bulk of net additions were prepaid users, largely as operators stood to gain from tapping into demand for services from the expatriate market via its value offerings and expanding its distribution. SingTel, StarHub and M1 reported y-o-y increases in their prepaid subscriber bases of 90.2%, 26% and 29% respectively. This compared to the rise in postpaid subscribers, of which there were a combined total of 3.011mn in the market, revealing an increase of just 5.9% over the year. That said, 3G has done exceptionally well this year, with growth of 92.4% y-o-y to reach 1.7mn subscribers. This accounts for a third of the mobile population and has been due to improved handset variety and content offerings. By 2010, around two-thirds of the market should have 3G, rising to 73% at the end of our five-year forecast in 2012.