Telecommunications market in Russia 2009

Development forecasts for 2009-2013

Publication Date	August 2009
Publisher	PMR Publications
Product Type	Report
Pages	187
ISBN Number	not applicable
Product Code	PMR00023

Buy this product or for assistance call +44 20 7060 7474

PDF £1,340.00$2229 | €1500

FAX Order above formats by FAX

Summary

In a couple of words, Russia’s telecommunications market in recent years can be best described as undergoing broad changes. From the regulatory perspective, the restructuring of the market regulator and the appointment of a new minister competent for telecommunications and mass media have been critical for the market. The industry went through a series of reshuffles and ownership changes as a consequence of mergers and acquisitions.

Russian operators, especially the largest ones, steadfastly broadened the scope of their operations, not only by introducing new products and services onto the Russian market, but also by enlarging their geographic reach. Yet, further changes are certain: including operators adjusting their strategies to the market crisis and the weaker local currency. Will this mean greater market competition? Significantly lower capital expenditure? And – perhaps, an inflow of foreign funds?

Telecommunications market in Russia 2009 is the 2nd edition of the PMR report on the industry. Delivering the most current and comprehensive overview of the telecommunications market in Russia, it includes analysis and forecasts for the entire market as well as individual segments. The industry vertical segments covered are mobile, fixed-line telephony and data/internet services. For each of these segments, examination of the market situation and industry trends as well as developments and forecasts up to 2013 captures data that can be harnessed by anyone in the telecommunications business.

Content

Methodology of the report

Executive summary

Economic and demographic situation
Macroeconomic background
Demographic background

Telecommunications market in Russia
Current market situation
Key trends, characteristics and events
Key players in the telecommunications market
Market transparency and business risk
Regulatory issues and the institutional
environment
Market development forecast for 2009-2013
Extra: Main capital groups on the Russian
telecommunications market
Alfa Group
Sistema

The mobile telephony market
Current market situation
Market structure
Key trends in the mobile market
Number of mobile telephony users and penetration
Pre-paid and post-paid subscribers
Business vs. individual users
Key market indicators (ARPU, AUPU, APPM, SAC, Churn)
Pricing of the mobile telephony services
Mobile non-voice and value-added services
Expansion of mobile operators
in the fixed-line segment
Development of 3G networks
Mobile handset market
Key players in the mobile market
Mobile TeleSystems
Vimpelcom
Megafon
Tele2 Russia
Smarts
Market development forecast for 2009-2013
Key market trends to be visible in 2009-2010
Acquisition of mobile handset retail
Further development of 3G networks
Launch of MVNOs
Market value forecasts 2009-2013

The fixed-line telephony market
Current market situation
Key trends in the fixed-line market
Fixed-line telephony penetration
Situation in particular market segments
Local telephony market
DLD and ILD market
Tariffs for fixed-line telephony services

Key players in the fixed-line market

    Svyazinvest
   CenterTelecom
   Uralsvyazinform
   VolgaTelecom
   North-West Telecom
   SibirTelecom
   Southern Telecommunications Company (Southern Telecom)
   Far East Telecom (Dalsvyaz)
   MGTS
   Rostelecom
   MTT
   TTK (TransTelekom)
   Synterra

Market development forecast for 2009-2013
Key market trends to be visible in 2009-2010
Market value forecasts 2009-2013

The data transmission, line rental and ISP services market
Current market situation and structure
Data transmission and line rental market
The ISP market
Number of internet users and penetration
Key trends on the ISP market
Broadband vs. dial up
Wire vs. wireless access
Institutional vs. household segment
Regional differences of the ISP market
Popularity of specific broadband technologies
Internet access in mobile networks
Key players in the DLISP market
Comstar-UTS
Comcor (brand name Akado Telecom)
SkyLink
Skartel (brand name Yota)
Prestij internet (brand name Enforta)
ER-Telecom
Market development forecast for 2009-2013
Key market trends to be visible in 2009-2010
Market demand for internet access
Fixed and mobile internet access
Capital investments
ISP market consolidation
Market value forecasts 2009-2013

List of graphs
1. GDP growth, CPI and unemployment rate in Russia (%), 2003-2009
2. Growth rates of disposable incomes in Russia (%, y-o-y), 2001-2008
3. Population in Russia (million) and growth rate (%, y-o-y), 2002-2008
4. Russian Federal Districts and their population (millions and % of total), January 2008
5. Population density in Russia by regions (people per km2), 2008
6. Value (RUB bn) and growth rate (%) of the telecommunications market in Russia, 2001-2008
7. Value (RUB bn) of major segments of the telecommunications services market in Russia, 2001-2008
8. Value (RUB bn) and number of M&A transactions in telecommunications sector in Russia, 2004-Q1 2009
9. Development perspectives of main telecoms market segments in Russia, 2009-2010
10. Volume of the investments (RUB bn) in the telecommunications industry in Russia and growth rate (%), 2006-2009
11. Investments (RUB bn) of leading Russian telecommunications operators, 2008-2009
12. Value (RUB bn) and growth rate (%) of the telecommunications market in Russia, 2008-2013
13. Shares (%) of major segments in the total value of the telecommunications services market in Russia, 2000-2013
14. Value (RUB bn) of major segments of the telecommunications services market in Russia, 2008-2013
15. Growth rates (%) of the major segments of the telecommunications market in Russia, 2008-2013
16. Comstar-UTS group
17. Megafon group
18. MTS group
19. Svyazinvest Holding group
20. Vimpelcom group
21. Value (RUB bn) and growth rate (%) of mobile telephony market in Russia, 2000-2008
22. Russian mobile market structure – shares of leading oprators by the number of registered SIM cards (m), 2008
23. Russian mobile market structure – shares of leading operators by revenues (RUB bn), 2008
24. Number of registered SIM cards (m) on the mobile telephony market in Russia and growth rate (%), 2000-2009
25. Number of total registered SIM cards (m), active SIM cards (m) and active users (m) in Russia, 2005-2009
26. Mobile penetration (%) in Russia as measured by registered SIM cards, active SIM cards and actual number of users, 2005-2009
27. Mobile penetration (%) in Russia by the regions, 2008
28. Shares of post-paid and pre-paid subscribers (%) in the total SIM card numbers in Russia, 2000-2008
29. Volume shares (%) of mobile operators at the corporate users market in Russia, 2008
30. Average monthly revenue per user (RUB) and growth rate (%) for the mobile telephony market in Russia, 2000-Q1 2009
31. ARPU (RUB) of leading mobile operators in Russia, Q3 2008-Q1 2009
32. ARPU (RUB) of leading mobile operators in Russia, 2008
33. Average usage per user per month (minutes) and growth rate (%) for the mobile telephony market in Russia, 2000-2008
34. Average price per minute (RUB) at the Russian mobile telephony market, Q1 2006-Q4 2008
35. Subscriber acquisition cost (RUB) and growth rate (%) for the mobile telephony market in Russia, 2000-2008
36. Churn (%) and its growth rate (%) for the mobile telephony market in Russia, 2000-2008
37. Average effective price per minute (RUB) of Vimpelcom, MTS and Megafon, Q3 2008-Q1 2009
38. Share (%) of non-voice services in the revenue of the biggest mobile operators in Russia, Q4 2008-Q1 2009
39. Value (RUB bn) and growth rate (%) of the mobile non-voice services market in Russia, 2001-2012
40. Structure of non-voice services market in Russia by revenues of leading operators, 2008
41. Shares of key segments in the mobile non-voice services market in Russia, 2008 and 2010
42. Shares of non-”Big Three” GSM operators (%) in the different segments of Russian mobile VAS market, Q1 2009
43. Number of 3G networks launched in different regions of Russia, Q1 2009
44. Number of 3G networks in Russia by operator, May 2009
45. Number (m) and growth rate (%) of 3G users in Russia, 2008-2010
46. Number of new mobile handsets (m) sold in Russia and growth rate (%), 2000-2009
47. Number of mobile handsets (m) of sold in Russia by leading vendors’ market share (%), 2008
48. Number of new mobile handsets (m) sold in Russia and value of the market (RUB, bn), 2008-2009
49. Quarterly change in revenue (RUB bn) of leading Russian mobile telephony operators, Q4 2007-Q4 2008 and Q1 2008-Q1 2009
50. Long-term liabilities in relation to revenue forecast ($ bn) of Vimpelcom, MTS and Megafon at the end of Q1 2009
51. CAPEX of Vimpelcom, MTS and Megafon (RUB bn), 2008-2009
52. Number of cities in Russia to be covered by 3G network in 2009
53. Number of SIM cards (m) and growth rate (%) in Russia, 2008-2013
54. Mobile penetration (%) in Russia, 2008-2013
55. Value (RUB bn) and growth rate (%) of the mobile telephony market in Russia, 2008-2013
56. Value (RUB bn) and growth rate (%) of the fixed-line telephony market in Russia, 2001-2008
57. Value (RUB bn) and structure (%) of fixed-line telephony market in Russia, 2008
58. Number of fixed-lines (m) and growth rate (%) in Russia, 2000-2008
59. Fixed-line penetration (%) in Russia, 2000-2008
60. Fixed-line penetration rate (%) in Russia by region, 2008
61. Value (RUB bn) and growth rate (%) of local telephony market in Russia, 2000-2009
62. Value share (RUB bn and %) of the institutional and household segments in local telephony market in Russia, 2008
63. Market share (%) of fixed-line telephony providers associated with Svyazinvest and MGTS in local telephony market in Russia, 2008
64. Telephony revenue structure (%) of local and internal zone telephony providers in Russia, 2008
65. Value (RUB bn) and growth rate (%) of DLD/ILD market in Russia, 2000-2009
66. Value (RUB bn) and share (%) of DLD/ILD market segments in Russia, 2008
67. Value (RUB bn) and share (%) of corporate and household segments for the internal zone and DLD/ILD market in Russia, 2008
68. Structure of the of DLD/ILD market in Russia by value shares of leading operators, 2008
69. Rate of growth (%) of the tariffs and revenues for the local telephony market and consumer price index in Russia, 2005-2009
70. Market shares (%) of different tariffs for local telephony in Russia, 2008
71. The operating area of regional companies belonging to Svyazinvest Holding, 2008
72. Synterra revenue structure (%) by services, 2008
73. Synterra revenue structure (%) by market segments, 2008
74. Shares (%) of pre-selected and hot choice users of DLD/ILD market in Russia, 2008
75. Structure (%) of voice traffic in Russia, 2005-2010
76. Popularity of fixed and mobile telephony for DLD/ILD calls in corporate sector in Russia, 2008
77. Value (RUB bn) and growth rate (%) of the fixed-line telephony market in Russia, 2008-2013
78. Number of lines (m) and growth rate (%) of the fixed-line telephony market in Russia, 2008-2013
79. Fixed-line penetration (%) in Russia, 2008-2013
80. Value (RUB bn) and growth rate (%) of the DLISP market in Russia, 2001-2008
81. The DLISP market in Russia – shares of component segments (%) in the value of the market (RUB bn), 2008
82. Value (RUB bn) of data transmission and line rental market in Russia, 2001-2008
83. Growth rates of data transmission and line rental market in Russia, 2001-2008
84. Value (RUB bn) and structure (%) of wholesale telecommunications market in Russia, 2008
85. Length (km) of backbone networks of leading providers in Russia, 2008
86. Value (RUB bn) and growth rate (%) of the ISP market in Russia, 2001-2008
87. Number (million) and growth rate (%) of internet users in Russia, 2000-2008
88. Internet penetration (%) in Russia, 2000-2008
89. Daily, weekly and monthly measurement of internet users in Russia (million), 2002-Q1 2009
90. Main places for access to the internet for Russian internet users (%), 2008
91. Share (%) of different speed of internet connections in Russian regions, 2009
92. Value shares (RUB bn) of broadband and dial-up in the ISP market in Russia, 2001-2008
93. Growth rates of broadband and dial-up internet access markets in Russia, 2002-2008
94. Value (RUB bn) and share (%) of broadband and dial-up ISP market segments in Russia, 2008
95. Number (‘000) and growth rate (%) of broadband internet subscribers in Russia, 2002-2008
96. Broadband internet penetration (%) in Russia, 2002-2008
97. Value (RUB bn) and share (%) of fixed and mobile ISP market segments in Russia, 2008
98. Value (RUB bn) and growth rate (%) of Russian ISP market, including both mobile and fixed access, 2005-2009
99. Preferable technologies for internet access (%) by internet users in Russia, 2008
100. Estimated share (%) of residential and business subscribers in the value of broadband internet access market in Russia, 2004-2008
101. Residence broadband penetration (%) in different regions of Russia, Q1 2009
102. Number of users (m) and internet penetration (%) in different regions of Russia, February 2009
103. Households connection to the internet by main technology and place of residence (%) in Russia, 2008
104. Average available internet access speed (kbps) in the main cities of Russia, February 2009
105. Average monthly price (RUB) for 512 kbps internet connection, February 2009
106. Average monthly spending (RUB) for the internet in Russia, 2008
107. Broadband internet ARPU (RUB) of leading ISPs in Russia, 2008
108. Value (RUB bn) and shares (%) of selected technologies in fixed ISP market in Russia, 2008
109. Volume shares of the major technologies for broadband internet access in Moscow, 2008
110. Volume shares of the major technologies for broadband internet access in Russia (outside Moscow), 2008
111. Structure (%) of internet traffic in mobile networks in Russia, end of 2008
112. Shares of big, mid size and small ISPs at the residential broadband market in Russia, H1 2008
113. Shares of leading landline ISPs (%) in Russia by the number of subscribers, 2008
114. Shares (%) of leading mobile ISPs in Russia, 2008
115. Comcor renevue structure (%) by market segments in 2008
116. Number of households (m) which have PC and are connected to broadband internet in Russia, 2005-2011
117. Change (%) of average price for internet (1GB of traffic) and number of daily users in Russia, 2004-2009
118. ARPU (RUB) and APPMb (RUB) for mobile internet in Russia, 2007-2009
119. Share of users (%) which need mobile internet and are ready to pay for it in Russia, December 2008
120. Investments in the development of internet (RUB bn) by leading ISPs, 2008-2009
121. Structure (%) of market capacity for wired internet connection in Russia and number (m) of households in each group, December 2008
122. Number of Russian cities of operation covered by leading ISPs, 2008-2009
123. Number (million) and growth rate (%) of internet users in Russia, 2008-2013
124. Internet penetration (%) in Russia, 2008-2013
125. Number (billion) and growth rate (%) of broadband subscribers in Russia, 2008-2013
126. Number of subscribers (m) of major internet access technologies in the broadband market in Russia, 2002-2013
127. Volume shares (%) of major internet access technologies in the broadband market in Russia, 2002-2013
128. Structure (%) of internet traffic in mobile networks in Russia, 2009f
129. Value (RUB bn) of major segments of the data transmission and ISP market in Russia, 2008-2013
130. Value (RUB bn) and growth rate (%) of the data transmission and ISP market in Russia, 2008-2013

List of tables
1. Average annual exchange rates $/RUB and €/RUB, 2000-2009
2. Selected economic statistics for Russia (%), 2007-2009
3. The largest cities in Russia by population (million), 2008
4. Key data on the Russian telecommunications market
5. Calendar of key market news and developments on the Russian telecommunications market between 2001 and H1 2009
6. Biggest telecommunications companies in Russia, 2008
7. Important M&A transactions in the telecommunications sector in Russia, 2008-Q1 2009
8. Sistema: key data, 2004-2008
9. Key data on the mobile telephony market in Russia
10. Ranking of major mobile operators in Russia by number of SIM cards serviced (m) and total revenues (RUB bn), 2008
11. Mobile TeleSystems: key data, 2004-Q1 2009
12. Revenue and net profit (RUB bn and $ bn) of MTS, 2004-Q1 2009
13. Selected operating indicators of MTS, 2004-Q1 2009
14. Vimpelcom: key data, 2004-Q1 2009
15. Revenue and net profit (RUB bn and $ bn) of Vimpelcom, 2004-Q1 2009
16. Selected operating indicators of Vimplelcom, 2004-Q1 2009
17. Megafon: key data, 2004-Q1 2009
18. Revenue and net profit (RUB bn) of Megafon, 2004-Q1 2009
19. Selected operating indicators of Megafon, 2004-Q1 2009
20. Tele2 Russia: key data, 2004-Q1 2009
21. Revenues and net profit (RUB bn) of Tele2 Russia, 2004-Q1 2009
22. Operating indicators of Tele2 Russia, 2005-Q1 2009
23. Smarts: key data, 2005-Q1 2009
24. Revenue and net profit (RUB bn) of Smarts, 2005-Q1 2009
25. Selected operating indicators of Smarts, 2005-Q1 2009
26. Key data on the fixed-line telephony market in Russia
27. Comparison of DLD tariffs from Moscow to different cities of Russia, 2008-2009
28. Leading fixed-line telephony operators in Russia, 2008
29. Svyazinvest: key financial and operational data, 2004-2008
30. CenterTelecom: key financial and operational data, 2005-2008
31. CenterTelecom: revenue breakdown (RUB bn), 2005-2008
32. Uralsvyazinform: key financial and operational data, 2005-Q1 2009
33. Uralsvyazinform: revenue breakdown (RUB bn), 2005-Q1 2009
34. Mobile ARPU of Uralsvyazinform, 2005-Q1 2009
35. VolgaTelecom: key financial and operational data, 2005-Q1 2009
36. VolgaTelecom: revenue breakdown (RUB bn), 2005-Q1 2009
37. North-West Telecom: key financial and operational data, 2005-Q1 2009
38. North-West Telecom: revenue breakdown (RUB bn), 2005-Q1 2009
39. SibirTelecom: key financial and operational data, 2005-Q1 2009
40. SibirTelecom: revenue breakdown (RUB bn), 2005-Q1 2009
41. Southern Telecom: key financial and operational data, 2005-Q1 2009
42. Southern Telecom: revenue breakdown (RUB bn), 2005-Q1 2009
43. Far East Telecom: key financial and operational data, 2005-Q1 2009
44. Far East Telecom: revenue breakdown (RUB bn), 2005-Q1 2009
45. MGTS: key financial and operational data, 2005-2008
46. MGTS: revenue breakdown (RUB bn), 2005-2008
47. Rostelecom: key financial data, 2004-Q1 2009
48. Rostelecom: revenue breakdown, 2004-Q1 2009
49. MMT: key financial data, 2004-2008
50. MMT: selected operating indicators, 2006-2008
51. TTK: key financial data, 2007-2008
52. TTK: selected operating indicators, 2008-Q1 2009
53. Synterra: key financial data, 2006-Q1 2009
54. Key data on the data transmission and ISP market in Russia
55. Leading internet services providers in Russia, 2008
56. Comstar-UTS: key financial data, 2004-Q1 2009
57. Comstar-UTS: key operating indicators, 2004-Q1 2009
58. Comcor: key financial data, 2006-Q1 2009
59. SkyLink: key operating indicators, 2007-Q1 2009
60. Skartel: key operating indicators, Q1 2009
61. Enforta: key operating indicators, 2008
62. Ertelecom: key financial data, 2004-Q1 2009
63. Ertelecom: key operating indicators, 2004-Q1 2009