USA Telecoms, Wireless, Broadband and Forecasts

Publication Date	February 2009
Publisher	BuddeComm
Product Type	Report
Pages	216
ISBN Number	not applicable
Product Code	BUD00248

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Summary

BuddeComm's annual publication, USA Telecoms, Wireless, Broadband and Forecasts, profiles the fixed-line, wireless (mobile) and broadband markets in the USA. The publication also examines the convergence of these technologies with each other and with digital media such as digital TV and the emergence of new telecommunication services such as VoIP and IPTV.

The cable companies continued to be the beneficiaries of the telcos' wireline losses, with cable VoIP subscriber numbers expected to continue growing strongly in 2009. In addition, cable companies retained the lead in broadband market share, as cable modem subscriber growth exceeded DSL subscriber growth in 2008, reversing the trend of recent years. This was partly explained by the fact that the telcos were concentrating on their FttH network deployments.

In the wireless market, the WiMAX and LTE open access 4G platforms, to which Sprint-Clearwire and Verizon Wireless respectively have committed; both offer significant scope for increased convergence among services and devices.

The country's telecommunications industry had yet to feel the full effect of the economic downturn, with total industry revenues growing at approximately 10% during 2008. Now faced with a deepening recession, in January 2009 the new Obama administration put to Congress the American Recovery and Reinvestment Bill which designates $6 billion for wireless and broadband in underserved areas and a further $11 billion assistance for the development of smart grids.

This report contains overviews, analyses and detailed statistics of the US fixed-line, wireless and broadband markets including their sub-markets such as DSL, cable, FttH, wireless broadband, utilities broadband, the Internet, VoIP and IPTV.

Key highlights:

Total revenue for the telecommunications industry grew by around 10% in 2008 to reach over $1.1 trillion. Growth in 2009 will continue to be underpinned by broadband uptake and wireless data revenues.
During 2009 the number of traditional fixed-line customers will continue to fall, following a nearly 10% decline in 2008. Conversely, VoIP will continue to post strong gains.
The FttH network deployment will continue to gather pace in 2009, allowing Verizon and AT&T to become notable competitors in the TV market. IPTV subscriber numbers will maintain strong growth, having reached nearly 2 million for Verizon FiOS TV and 1 million for AT&T U-Verse TV by late 2008.
Broadband continues its strong growth, achieving a penetration of nearly 25% in 2008, although the US still has only the 15th highest penetration rate in the OECD, down from 4th place in 2001. The total number of broadband subscribers is expected to continue to grow solidly over the next five years, although at a declining growth rate as household penetration approaches saturation. DSL is expected to return to higher growth rates as a deepening recession makes the price competitive offering of DSL more attractive.
WiFi had become commonplace in the USA during 2007, with a burgeoning hotspot network and WiFi moving beyond the laptop to cellular handsets. The significance of the WiFi market was highlighted in 2008 with the purchase by AT&T of WiFi hotspot operator Wayport for $275 million, giving AT&T the largest number of WiFi hotspots in the country.
Wireless subscriber growth will slow during 2009 as penetration exceeds 90%. Despite declining subscriber growth rates, the significance of the wireless sector will continue to strengthen, with the percentage of wireless-only households having reached approximately 15% by early 2009.
In 2009 Verizon Wireless completed its acquisition of Alltel Corp, making Verizon Wireless the largest wireless operator in the country with over 30% market share and giving the top-three providers nearly 80% of the wireless market.
During 2009 wireless revenues will continue to enjoy strong growth, following growth of nearly 50% in 2008, underpinned by robust wireless data revenue growth. By early 2009 wireless data revenues accounted for approximately 25% of total wireless service revenues, up from around 18% in 2007. Significantly, the majority of wireless data revenues are now being generated by non-messaging applications and services such as music downloads, mobile TV, video blogs and Internet-accessed entertainment services.
The deployment of 4G wireless technologies will gain significance in 2009, following the 2008 launch by Sprint Nextel and Clearwire of their WiMAX network and the announcement by Verizon Wireless that it will start deploying LTE from late 2009.
The transition to digital TV gathered pace with mandatory analogue switch-off scheduled for February 2009. Nevertheless, in January 2009 President Obama requested Congress to postpone the switch-off date as substantial numbers of households had not reached digital TV readiness.
While it was originally thought BPL would grow out of the need for broadband services in underserved rural and regional areas, in 2008 it became clear that the urgent need to address climate change through measures such as smart grids will be the main force for deploying BPL networks. In California alone it is estimated that approximately 17.5 million smart meters will be deployed between 2008 and 2010.
In the area of policy, President Obama has indicated his support for a net neutrality law and for stronger antitrust enforcement. He appointed a new FCC Chairman, Julius Genachowski, which gives the FCC a greater mandate to regulate in the interests of competition and the consumer.

Content

1. Key Statistics
2. Regulatory Environment
- 2.1 Analysis
  - 2.1.1 Unbundling
  - 2.1.2 Net neutrality
- 2.2 US regulatory environment
  - 2.2.1 Overview
  - 2.2.2 Regulatory authorities
  - 2.2.3 Regulatory milestones - 1969 - 2008
  - 2.2.4 Brief historical overview
- 2.3 The Telecommunications Act 1996
  - 2.3.1 Overview
  - 2.3.2 Key pro-competitive provisions of the Telecom Act
  - 2.3.3 Kay market participants
  - 2.3.4 Impact of the Act
- 2.4 Foreign competition
- 2.5 The FCC and satellite services
- 2.6 Merger and acquisition activity
- 2.7 Access and unbundling
  - 2.7.1 Unbundling network access
  - 2.7.2 RBOCs ordered tshare Internet lines
  - 2.7.3 FCC unbundled network triennial review order of 2003
  - 2.7.4 Cable broadband and DSL confirmed as information services
- 2.8 Regulation of converging technologies
  - 2.8.1 VoIP
  - 2.8.2 Videand TV
3. Major Telcos - Statistics & Analysis
- 3.1 US telecom industry
  - 3.1.1 RBOCs, ILECs, CLECs and IXCs
  - 3.1.2 Cable MSOs, VoIP and other competition
  - 3.1.3 Analysis - 2008/09
- 3.2 Major players
  - 3.2.1 Overview
  - 3.2.2 AT&T Inc
  - 3.2.3 Verizon Communications
  - 3.2.4 Qwest Communications
4. Internet Market
- 4.1 Analysis
- 4.2 Overview
- 4.3 Internet statistics
- 4.4 US broadband
  - 4.4.1 Broadband development
  - 4.4.2 Broadband connectivity
- 4.5 USA Internet usage
  - 4.5.1 Internet usage patterns and demographics
  - 4.5.2 Web surfing statistics
  - 4.5.3 Online advertising and e-commerce
- 4.6 ISP market
- 4.7 Email
  - 4.7.1 Spam, viruses & other malware
  - 4.7.2 Anti spam legislation
- 4.8 Instant Messaging (IM)
5. Broadband Market
- 5.1 Key highlights
- 5.2 broadband market
  - 5.2.1 Broadband market overview
  - 5.2.2 Regulatory overview
  - 5.2.3 Broadband statistics
  - 5.2.4 Cable MSOs versus telcos
- 5.3 Cable broadband
  - 5.3.1 Market overview
  - 5.3.2 Cable broadband statistics
- 5.4 Digital Subscriber Line (DSL)
  - 5.4.1 DSL overview
  - 5.4.2 DSL statistics
- 5.5 Fibre-to-the-Home (FttH)
  - 5.5.1 Overview
  - 5.5.2 FttH network rollout
  - 5.5.3 Policy and regulation framework
  - 5.5.4 Choice of FttX technology
  - 5.5.5 Non-RBOC FttH networks
  - 5.5.6 RBOC FttH roll-out
- 5.6 Smart grids & BPL
  - 5.6.1 Overview
  - 5.6.2 Smart grids
  - 5.6.3 Broadband Powerline (BPL)
- 5.7 Wireless broadband
  - 5.7.1 Overview
  - 5.7.2 700MHz auction
  - 5.7.3 Analysis - 2007 - 2008
  - 5.7.4 WiFi
  - 5.7.5 WiMAX
  - 5.7.6 Satellite broadband
6. VoIP
- 6.1 Market overview
  - 6.1.1 VoIP statistics
- 6.2 VoIP regulation
- 6.3 VoIP technology in the US
  - 6.3.1 Overview
  - 6.3.2 History
  - 6.3.3 IP telephony gateways
  - 6.3.4 Value-added features
  - 6.3.5 Hosted VoIP solutions
  - 6.3.6 Circuit-to-packet network migration
  - 6.3.7 IP-based private networks and computer telephony integration
  - 6.3.8 Mobile VoIP
- 6.4 Major VoIP providers
  - 6.4.1 Cable VoIP
  - 6.4.2 Alternative providers
  - 6.4.3 TelcVoIP
7. Convergence
- 7.1 Market overview
  - 7.1.1 Key developments
  - 7.1.2 IP networks
  - 7.1.3 Regulatory issues
- 7.2 Telctriple play
  - 7.2.1 Triple play over fibre
  - 7.2.2 Alliances with satellite TV
- 7.3 Cable triple play
  - 7.3.1 Triple play over HFC
- 7.4 Satellite over IP
- 7.5 Quadruple play
  - 7.5.1 Verizon
  - 7.5.2 AT&T
  - 7.5.3 Sprint Nextel - cable initiatives
  - 7.5.4 Qwest
- 7.6 Overview of the broadcasting market
  - 7.6.1 Analysis
- 7.7 Regulatory issues
  - 7.7.1 Analogue switch-off
  - 7.7.2 la carte
- 7.8 Digital TV
  - 7.8.1 IPTV
  - 7.8.2 Cable DTV
  - 7.8.3 Satellite Direct Broadcasting Service (DBS)
  - 7.8.4 Digital Terrestrial TV (DTTV)
- 7.9 Consumer electronics
  - 7.9.1 Digital TV sets and HDTVs
  - 7.9.2 DVRs
8. Wireless Communications
- 8.1 Market overview
  - 8.1.1 Market analysis
  - 8.1.2 Market consolidation
  - 8.1.3 Market convergence
- 8.2 Wireless statistics
  - 8.2.1 Market statistics
  - 8.2.2 Wireless carrier statistics
  - 8.2.3 ARPU statistics
- 8.3 Market trends
  - 8.3.1 Mobile Virtual Network Operator (MVNO) market
  - 8.3.2 Prepaid market
  - 8.3.3 Third Generation mobile (3G)
  - 8.3.4 WiMAX and VoIP versus 3G
  - 8.3.5 WiFi and cellular convergence
  - 8.3.6 Sprint/MSO joint venture
  - 8.3.7 Key trends in 2009
- 8.4 Major wireless operators
  - 8.4.1 AT&T Mobility (formerly Cingular Wireless)
  - 8.4.2 Verizon Wireless
  - 8.4.3 Sprint Nextel Corporation
  - 8.4.4 T-Mobile USA
  - 8.4.5 Alltel Corporation
  - 8.4.6 US Cellular Corporation
- 8.5 Wireless Data
  - 8.5.1 Mobile TV
  - 8.5.2 Mobile music
  - 8.5.3 Non-voice messaging
  - 8.5.4 Mobile Internet
  - 8.5.5 Wireless Local Number Portability (WLNP)
9. Forecasts
- 9.1 Forecasts - Internet market t2013
- 9.2 Forecasts - broadband subscribers t2015
- 9.3 Forecasts - fibre networks t2015
- 9.4 Forecasts - VoIP market t2013
- 9.5 Forecasts - wireless market t2013
10. Glossary of Abbreviations
- Table 1 - Country statistics USA - 2008
- Table 2 - Telecom revenue statistics - 2008
- Table 3 - Telephone network statistics - 2008
- Table 4 - Internet user statistics - 2008
- Table 5 - Broadband statistics - 2008
- Table 6 - Wireless statistics - September 2008
- Table 7 - National telecommunications authority
- Table 18 - Top ten ranking by country for Internet users - June 2008
- Table 19 - Country comparison of monthly at-home Internet usage - 2007 - 2008
- Table 20 - Select OECD countries' broadband penetration - 2001; 2007 - 2008
- Table 21 - Broadband access among Internet households - select countries - 2001 - 2007
- Table 22 - Home Internet connection speeds - 1999 - 2007
- Table 23 - At work Internet connection speeds - 2000 - 2007
- Table 24 - US Internet users, annual change and penetration - 1996 - 2008
- Table 25 - Total monthly US online searches - 2004 - 2008
- Table 26 - US average monthly web usage - 2006 - 2008
- Table 27 - Proportion of time online by activity - 2007
- Table 28 - Top 10 search engines: growth and share of market - August 2008
- Table 29 - Top ten websites and market share - 2008
- Table 30 - Top ten websites by parent company, audience & time spent - October 2008
- Table 31 - Fastest growing web properties: visitors & monthly growth - June 2008
- Table 32 - Visitor & annual growth of selected global social networking sites - June 2008
- Table 33 - Ten largest US global social networking sites, visitors & growth - June 2008
- Table 34 - Top US online videsites statistics - October 2008
- Table 35 - Online advertising revenues and market shares - 2007
- Table 36 - Leading Internet advertising by industry and impressions - October 2008
- Table 37 - E-commerce growth by sector - 2007 - 2008
- Table 38 - Online retail sales and annual change - 2003 - 2008
- Table 39 - ISP, access types, residential subscribers and market share - September 2008
- Table 40 - Number of ISPs in the USA - 2003 - 2008
- Table 41 - Email volume and annual change - 2000 - 2007
- Table 42 - Email clients, personal email, by popularity - 2008
- Table 43 - Email clients (business email), by popularity - 2008
- Table 44 - Source of spam by country - 2008
- Table 45 - Zombie IPs by country - 2008
- Table 46 - Products pitched in spam emails - 2008
- Table 47 - Fastest growing IM destinations and visitors per month - 2007
- Table 48 - Broadband subscribers, annual change & penetration rate - 1999 - 2008
- Table 49 - Broadband household penetration - 2000 - 2008
- Table 50 - Broadband lines (>200Kb/s in both directions) - 2005 - 2007
- Table 51 - Top cable and DSL providers, subscribers & market share - 2008
- Table 52 - Broadband subscribers & penetration in selected OECD countries - 2001; 2008
- Table 53 - USA broadband penetration & OECD ranking - 2001 - 2008
- Table 54 - USA broadband speeds against top 14 OECD ranking - 2007
- Table 55 - US cable industry infrastructure expenditure - 2000 - 2008
- Table 56 - Top 10 cable MSOs' coverage, subscribers & penetration by technology - Q3 2008
- Table 57 - Cable modem subscribers and annual change - 1998 - 2008
- Table 58 - Subscribers for top cable modem providers - 2002 - 2008
- Table 59 - Cable versus DSL - market share & subscriber growth - 2006 - 2008
- Table 60 - DSL subscribers and annual change - 1999 - 2008
- Table 61 - DSL subscribers by major carrier - 2002 - 2008
- Table 62 - ADSL subscribers, market share & annual change by provider type - June 2007
- Table 63 - FttH homes passed and connected - 2001 - 2008
- Table 64 - FttH videhomes connected - 2001 - 2008
- Table 65 - FttH market share by type of provider - 2006 - 2008
- Table 66 - Non-RBOC and overall FttH take-up rates - 2002 - 2008
- Table 67 - Top 10 countries - public WiFi hotspots - 2009
- Table 68 - Top 10 US cities - WIFI hotspots - 2009
- Table 69 - VoIP subscribers of major providers - 2007 - 2008
- Table 70 - Cable VoIP subscribers and annual change - 2003 - 2008
- Table 71 - US cable industry infrastructure expenditures - 2000 - 2008
- Table 72 - Broadcasting coverage, subscribers, annual change and penetration - 2008
- Table 73 - Market shares, major MSO, DBS & telcvideproviders - 2005; 2007 - 2008
- Table 74 - Homes passed by cable HDTV service & annual change - 2002 - 2007
- Table 75 - Cable CAPEX, customer and advertising revenues - 1996 - 2007
- Table 76 - Basic cable and digital subscribers - 2000 - 2008
- Table 77 - Top 25 cable MSOs ranked by subscribers & market share - 2008
- Table 78 - DBS versus MSO market shares - 2001 - 2008
- Table 79 - Satellite DBS subscribers by major network - 2000 - 2008
- Table 80 - DISH ARPU, churn and subscriber acquisition costs - 2005 - 2008
- Table 81 - DirecTV ARPU, churn and subscriber acquisition costs - 2005 - 2008
- Table 82 - Digital TV set sales and revenues - 2000 - 2008
- Table 83 - Wireless subscribers, penetration and annual change - September 2008
- Table 84 - Wireless market ARPU, revenues, usage statistics & annual change - 2008
- Table 85 - Wireless subscribers and annual change - 1995 - 2008
- Table 86 - Wireless market revenue, roamer revenue, ARPU & employees - 1994 - 2008
- Table 87 - Number of cell sites - 1995; 2000 - 2008
- Table 88 - Wireless subscribers by operator - 2002 - 2008
- Table 89 - Wireless operators' market share - 2007 - 2008
- Table 90 - ARPU of major operators & annual change - 2007 - 2008
- Table 91 - Customer churn rate of national carriers - 2001 - 2008
- Table 92 - Average local monthly bill & average local call length - 1995 - 2008
- Table 93 - Prepaid wireless subscribers - 2007 - 2008
- Table 94 - AT&T Mobility financial summary - 2000 - 2008
- Table 95 - AT&T Mobility PoPs, subscribers, penetration, churn & ARPU - 2000 - 2008
- Table 96 - Verizon Communications financial summary - 2000 - 2008
- Table 97 - Verizon Wireless subscribers, churn, ARPU & revenue - 2001 - 2008
- Table 98 - Sprint Nextel consolidated financial summary - 2000 - 2008
- Table 99 - Sprint Nextel wireless subscribers, churn, ARPU & revenue - 2001 - 2008
- Table 100 - T-Mobile revenue - 2000 - 2008
- Table 101 - T-Mobile cell sites, subscribers, churn & ARPU - 2001 - 2008
- Table 102 - Alltel financial summary - 2000 - 2008
- Table 103 - Alltel wireless subscribers, churn & ARPU - 2001 - 2008
- Table 104 - US Cellular financial summary - 2000 - 2008
- Table 105 - US Cellular cell sites, subscribers, churn & ARPU - 2000 - 2008
- Table 106 - Forecast Internet users and penetration - 2009 - 2013
- Table 107 - Forecast online retail sales - 2009 - 2013
- Table 108 - Forecast online advertising - 2009 - 2013
- Table 109 - Forecast broadband subscribers & penetration - lower growth scenari- 2009 - 2015
- Table 110 - Forecast broadband subscribers & penetration - higher growth scenari- 2009 - 2015
- Table 111 - Forecast homes passed by fibre - high growth scenari- 2009 - 2015
- Table 112 - Forecast homes passed by fibre - low growth scenari- 2009 - 2015
- Table 113 - Forecast VoIP subscribers & revenue - lower growth scenari- 2009 - 2013
- Table 114 - Forecast VoIP subscribers & revenue - higher growth scenari- 2009 - 2013
- Table 115 - Forecast wireless subscribers, penetration & revenue - lower growth scenari- 2009 - 2013
- Table 116 - Forecast wireless subscribers, penetration & revenue - higher growth scenari- 2009 - 2013
- Exhibit 1 - Significant telecom de-regulation milestones - 1969 - 2008
- Exhibit 2 - Significant telecom consolidations - 1998 - 2009
- Exhibit 3 - Definitions: DSL, cable and FttN/FttC broadband
- Exhibit 4 - - Cable broadband drives cable VoIP
- Exhibit 5 - Status of RBOC fibre network build out - September 2008
- Exhibit 6 - Examples of non-RBOC FttH networks
- Exhibit 7 - Smart grid applications
- Exhibit 8 - Oncor (TXU) and the Current Group
- Exhibit 9 - Smart meters planned for Massachusetts
- Exhibit 10 - Current Group's smart grid fault detection
- Exhibit 11 - Xcel Energy's Smart Grid Consortium
- Exhibit 12 - Current deploys the US's first utility HAN (home area network)
- Exhibit 13 - BPL technology overview
- Exhibit 14 - BPL in Manassas reduced ta smart metering system
- Exhibit 15 - DirecTV and Current Communications terminate BPL venture
- Exhibit 16 - Unsuccessful BPL trials highlight the difficulties
- Exhibit 17 - Municipal WiFi case-study - City of Minneapolis
- Exhibit 18 - IEEE WiFi standards - January 2009
- Exhibit 19 - Sprint Nextel's and Clearwire's WiMAX developments
- Exhibit 20 - VoIP pioneers - Net2Phone
- Exhibit 21 - Components of network convergence
- Exhibit 22 - Major cable VoIP operators - 2008
- Exhibit 23 - Major alternative VoIP developments - 2008
- Exhibit 24 - Major telcVoIP developments - 2008
- Exhibit 25 - Examples of non-cable VoD services
- Exhibit 26 - National FTA broadcasters - 2008
- Exhibit 27 - Major carriers' acquisitions of smaller carriers - 2007 - 2008
- Exhibit 28 - Major developments in the US MVNO market - 2007 - 2008
- Exhibit 29 - Mobile TV developers