2007 Global Mobile - Data and Content Markets

Publication Date	February 2007
Publisher	BuddeComm
Product Type	Report
Pages	172
ISBN Number	not applicable
Product Code	BUD00067

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Summary

Mobile data is the answer to the declining revenues currently being experienced by the mobile industry. By 2015 it is expected that most mobile revenue will come from data. However, business models will need to change for this to occur - users will only want to access mobile data services if they are provided at low cost. For many mobile operators this is going to require significant changes to their current voice-centric business models.

One of the major areas where high-speed services are needed is in mobile data communications. To compete with fixed broadband, it is essential for reliable high-speed wireless technologies to be developed. Wireless broadband is much more suited for the delivery of mobile data than 3G, and the infrastructure also has more potential for the delivery of Voice over Internet Protocol (VoIP). These are two reasons why wireless broadband could start challenging 3G in the next decade.

While many countries are still considering the introduction of 3G, the industry has already developed 3G and beyond, with technologies such as High Speed Downlink Packet Access (HSDPA). Linking fixed and mobile together on IP Multimedia System (IMS) is another development, allowing for mobile TV and triple play models.

To try and stay ahead of developments in the fixed broadband market, the mobile industry is developing its own triple play models, where voice, data and video are bundled.

Consumer need for greater bandwidth will continue to push the evolution from 3G to 4G. Increasingly users will require high data rates, similar to those on fixed networks, and they will want superior services - good video and sound quality for example. More bandwidth would also allow for more sophistication in receiving and managing large quantities of information and improve personalisation services. Convergence with other network (enterprise, fixed) services will also come about through the high session data rates.

By 2015 the mobile content market could be worth well in excess of $1 trillion, with voice comprising only a 10% share of the market - if the industry gets it right. Currently mobile operators are still not opening up their networks for mobile content; one of the main reasons being that the current mobile technologies are not well-suited for the delivery of what the market calls 'rich experience' content (multimedia, video, etc). So for now mobile data traffic will continue to comprise mostly SMS, followed by ringtones and a small proportion of everything else. The focus of the mobile operators will also remain on protecting their lucrative voice business for the time being.

Developments in mobile commerce are continuing, with banks and merchants beginning to show an interest in collaborating with mobile operators. With the introduction of contactless cards using Near Field Communications (NFC); this industry sector is beginning to show some signs of revival.

Handset development is also forging ahead with the introduction of the mobile wallet using technologies such as NFC, Radio Frequency Identification (RFID), bar codes, and visual recognition.

This report provides analyses, statistics and trends on the mobile data and content markets, including a brief overview of regional developments. It provides information on the 3G technologies in development, including HSDPA and IMS, and also a discussion on the technologies that are being used to bridge the gap between the well established 2G and the much vaunted 3G, such as GPRS, EDGE, HSCSD and i-mode.

The report also includes an overview and statistics on the various mobile content services such as music, gambling, adult content and mobile TV. Other topics covered include the mobile commerce market, telemetry, Location-Based Services (LBS), Global Positioning Services (GPS), and Automatic Data Capture including RFID - which is predicted to gain popularity due to a growing awareness of its benefits to many industries.

Content

1. An Overview & Analysis 2007 - The Role Of Wireless Broadband
- 1.1 Introduction
- 1.2 From WiMAX and 3G to 4G mobile
  - 1.2.1 Service evolution
  - 1.2.2 How to move forward?
  - 1.2.3 What went wrong with mobile data?
  - 1.2.4 Demand is there, supply is failing
- 1.3 Overview of market developments
  - 1.3.1 Mobile data ARPU on the rise - 2006
- 1.4 Analysis - moving into 2007
  - 1.4.1 The end of the mobile handset, or not
  - 1.4.2 Cellular-based mobile data developments
  - 1.4.3 Mobile - wireless integration
  - 1.4.4 EVDO: successful for business mobile data
  - 1.4.5 Wireless broadband next year or perhaps the year after, or....
  - 1.4.6 Content providers giving up hope
  - 1.4.7 The end of the line for large-scale mobile data
  - 1.4.8 How to proceed from here
2. Mobile Data Infrastructure (2g, 3g, 4g)
- 2.1 GPRS, EDGE, HSCSD
  - 2.1.1 Introduction
  - 2.1.2 General Packet Radio Services (GPRS)
  - 2.1.3 High-Speed Circuit Switched Data (HSCSD)
  - 2.1.4 EDGE
  - 2.1.5 i-mode
- 2.2 HSDPA & IMS
  - 2.2.1 Unique features of mobile data
  - 2.2.2 High-Speed Downlink Packet Access (HSDPA)
  - 2.2.3 HSDPA statistics
  - 2.2.4 Analysis - will HSDPA dethrone WiMAX?
  - 2.2.5 IP Multimedia System (IMS)
  - 2.2.6 IMS statistics
- 2.3 Infrastructure developments
  - 2.3.1 Infrastructure options
  - 2.3.2 Bypassing the fixed network bottleneck
  - 2.3.3 The concept of Wireless Local Loop (WLL)
  - 2.3.4 Applications
  - 2.3.5 Mobile-based infrastructure
  - 2.3.6 Fixed wireless broadband infrastructure (1st generation)
  - 2.3.7 Digital TV (DTV)
  - 2.3.8 Spread spectrum infrastructure
  - 2.3.9 Room for free wireless broadband
3. Short Message Service (Sms)
- 3.1 Introduction
  - 3.1.1 A market grown by default
  - 3.1.2 Skyrocketing growth driven by low access to mobiles
  - 3.1.3 SMS in the USA
  - 3.1.4 Instant Messaging (IM)
  - 3.1.5 Premium SMS
- 3.2 SMS and IM statistics and forecasts
  - 3.2.1 IM statistics 2006
  - 3.2.2 SMS statistics 2006
  - 3.2.3 IM statistics 2005
  - 3.2.4 SMS statistics 2005
  - 3.2.5 IM statistics 2004
  - 3.2.6 SMS statistics 2003 - 2004
- 3.3 SMS market analysis
  - 3.3.1 Will SMS grow beyond its current niche market?
- 3.4 SMS trends and developments
  - 3.4.1 SMS translation services
  - 3.4.2 SMS pornography
  - 3.4.3 Permission-based SMS
- 3.5 IMS market
  - 3.5.1 Collaboration on improving systems
- 3.6 Unstructured Supplementary Service Data (USSD)
  - 3.6.1 Store-and-forward messaging services
  - 3.6.2 Key benefits
  - 3.6.3 Early providers
  - 3.6.4 Analysis
4. Multimedia Messaging Service (Mms)
- 4.1 Introduction
- 4.2 Analysis of MMS and other video-based mobile developments
  - 4.2.1 The future is indeed video communications
  - 4.2.2 International overview
  - 4.2.3 Mobile video has been over-hyped
  - 4.2.4 Financial and technical limitations
  - 4.2.5 Key market 13-19 year olds
  - 4.2.6 Market size
  - 4.2.7 Competing technologies
  - 4.2.8 Regulation-driven competition
  - 4.2.9 Checking market realities
  - 4.2.10 Who takes the lead?
- 4.3 Don't write MMS off yet - another perspective
- 4.4 MMS statistics
  - 4.4.1 2006 statistics and forecasts
  - 4.4.2 2005 statistics and forecasts
  - 4.4.3 2004 statistics and forecasts
- 4.5 MMS pricing statistics
- 4.6 MMS for criminal surveillance
- 4.7 MMS industry consortia
5. Mobile Tv
- 5.1 Mobile TV standard
- 5.2 Mobile TV phase 2
- 5.3 The mobile TV fallacy - analysis
- 5.4 Mobile TV and WiMAX could be a good match
- 5.5 The broadcaster and the mobile operator
- 5.6 Regional overview - mobile TV developments
  - 5.6.1 North America
  - 5.6.2 Latin America
  - 5.6.3 Europe
  - 5.6.4 Middle East
  - 5.6.5 Africa
  - 5.6.6 Asia
- 5.7 Mobile TV statistics and forecasts
6. M-Commerce
- 6.1 Introduction
- 6.2 Micropayments
  - 6.2.1 Payments by mobile phone
- 6.3 M-commerce trends and developments
  - 6.3.1 Global NFC standard
  - 6.3.2 Mororola enters market
  - 6.3.3 PayPal offers mobile services
  - 6.3.4 Online games and micropayments
  - 6.3.5 Mobile cash payments
  - 6.3.6 Payments by cards
  - 6.3.7 Collapse of SimPay
  - 6.3.8 URL billing
  - 6.3.9 World's first mobile-commerce system
- 6.4 M-commerce analysis
  - 6.4.1 High costs hold sector back
  - 6.4.2 New business models required
  - 6.4.3 M-commerce on specialised devices
  - 6.4.4 No large residential market soon
  - 6.4.5 Good prospects for business market
  - 6.4.6 Smart phones and m-commerce
- 6.5 M-commerce and micropayment statistics and forecasts
  - 6.5.1 2006 statistics and forecasts
  - 6.5.2 2005 statistics and forecasts
  - 6.5.3 2004 statistics and forecasts
- 6.6 Industry consortia
  - 6.6.1 Mobile Payment Forum
  - 6.6.2 Mobey Forum
  - 6.6.3 Mobile Electronic Transaction (MeT)
  - 6.6.4 PayCircle (2001 - 2005)
7. Triple Play
- 7.1 Developments in mobile
- 7.2 2G multimedia services failed to take-off
- 7.3 Multimedia essential element in triple play bundle
- 7.4 Emerging technologies
  - 7.4.1 HSDPA - platform for triple play
  - 7.4.2 IP Multimedia Systems (IMS)
- 7.5 Unlicensed Mobile Access (UMA)
- 7.6 Mobile broadcast
  - 7.6.1 Mobile Broadcast Multicast Services (MBMS)
  - 7.6.2 Qualcomm's MediaFLO network
- 7.7 What about 4G?
- 7.8 Conclusion
8. Mobile Content
- 8.1 industry and market analyses
  - 8.1.1 A market still kept hostage
  - 8.1.2 New marketing and distribution models
  - 8.1.3 Mobile Digital Rights Management (MDRM)
- 8.2 Statistics and services
  - 8.2.1 Mobile content statistics, trends and forecasts
  - 8.2.2 Mobile adult content
  - 8.2.3 Mobile email
  - 8.2.4 Mobile gambling
  - 8.2.5 Mobile games
  - 8.2.6 Mobile Internet
  - 8.2.7 Mobile music and ringtones
  - 8.2.8 Mobile User Generated Content (UGC)
  - 8.2.9 Mobile TV and video
  - 8.2.10 Mobile sports
  - 8.2.11 Mobile marketing
  - 8.2.12 Mobile and permission-based marketing - analysis
9. Telemetry
- 9.1 Introduction
- 9.2 Remote monitoring
  - 9.2.1 AMR using ZigBee
  - 9.2.2 ZIGBEE for lighting control
- 9.3 Telemetry in healthcare
- 9.4 Near Field Communication (NFC)
- 9.5 Remote sensing satellites
- 9.6 Conclusion - analysis
10. Automatic Data Capture, Rfid
- 10.1 Radio Frequency Identification (RFID)
  - 10.1.1 Overview
  - 10.1.2 RFID tags
  - 10.1.3 Fragmented standards
  - 10.1.4 Spectrum allocation
- 10.2 North America - a growing RFID market
  - 10.2.1 Examples of RFID use
- 10.3 RFID statistics and forecasts
  - 10.3.1 2006 statistics
  - 10.3.2 2005 statistics
  - 10.3.3 2004 statistics
- 10.4 Concerns about privacy
- 10.5 Concerns about security
- 10.6 Other ADC technologies
  - 10.6.1 Bar codes
  - 10.6.2 Magnetic stripe systems
  - 10.6.3 Smartcards
  - 10.6.4 Mark sense and Optical Character Recognition (OCR)
  - 10.6.5 Vision systems
  - 10.6.6 Voice recognition
  - 10.6.7 Magnetic ink character recognition
11. Satellite - Navigation, Gps, Location-Based Services
- 11.1 Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS)
  - 11.1.1 Products of the cold war
  - 11.1.2 History (pre-GPS)
  - 11.1.3 Geographic information services
  - 11.1.4 Euteltracs
  - 11.1.5 Galileo
  - 11.1.6 Compass from China
- 11.2 Location-Based Services (LBS)
  - 11.2.1 Introduction
  - 11.2.2 Key global LSB markets
  - 11.2.3 Location-based technologies
  - 11.2.4 LBS applications
- 11.3 Global Positioning System (GPS)
  - 11.3.1 Introduction
  - 11.3.2 Differential GPS
  - 11.3.3 GPS applications
  - 11.3.4 Other developments
12. Mobile Handsets
- 12.1 Handset market
  - 12.1.1 Overview
- 12.2 Mobile handset statistics and forecasts
  - 12.2.1 2006 statistics
  - 12.2.2 2004 - 2005 statistics
  - 12.2.3 Statistics for handsets with advanced functions
- 12.3 Handset supplier market shares
- 12.4 Trends and developments
  - 12.4.1 SIM card developments
  - 12.4.2 The motion recognition phone
  - 12.4.3 Multimode devices
  - 12.4.4 Satellite phones
- 12.5 Safety and security issues
  - 12.5.1 Exploding phones - problem still exists in 2006
  - 12.5.2 Mobile phones targeted by viruses
- 12.6 Unsustainable handset subsidies
13. Regional Overview
- 13.1 North America
  - 13.1.1 USA
  - 13.1.2 Canada
- 13.2 Latin America
  - 13.2.1 Mobile data services in Latin America
- 13.3 Europe
  - 13.3.1 Western Europe
  - 13.3.2 Eastern Europe
- 13.4 Africa/Middle East
  - 13.4.1 Africa
  - 13.4.2 Middle East
- 13.5 Asia
  - 13.5.1 HSDPA
  - 13.5.2 WiMAX
- 13.6 Pacific region
  - 13.6.1 Australia
  - 13.6.2 New Zealand
  - 13.6.3 South Pacific
14. Glossary Of Abbreviations
List Of Exhibits
- Exhibit 1 - Ericsson and HSPA
- Exhibit 2 - HSPA, HSDPA, HSUPA
- Exhibit 3 - Theoretical and realistic speeds GPRS, EDGE and UMTS (Kb/s)
- Exhibit 4 - Major WCDMA/EDGE global operators - October 2006
- Exhibit 5 - Countries/territories where HSDPA is planned, in deployment or commercially available - 2006
- Exhibit 6 - What is IMS?
- Exhibit 7 - Vendors involved in GMI 2006
- Exhibit 8 - Comparison of access platforms' advantages and disadvantages
- Exhibit 9 - Comparison of mobile messaging technologies
- Exhibit 10 - Comparison: SMS, EMS, MMS by Ovum
- Exhibit 11 - Comparison: SMS, MMS by Mobile Streams
- Exhibit 12 - Mobile TV - Unicast and MBMS - 2006
- Exhibit 13 - 3G R&D developments
- Exhibit 14 - Mobile facts and figures
- Exhibit 15 - What users want
- Exhibit 16 - Key m-gambling market segments
- Exhibit 17 - Examples of telemetry applications
- Exhibit 18 - Market players in telemetry healthcare sector
- Exhibit 19 - Near Field Communications definition
- Exhibit 20 - Examples of NFC applications
- Exhibit 21 - RFID spectrum frequencies and application examples
- Exhibit 22 - Assisted GPS (A-GPS)
- Exhibit 23 - Location-based services applications
- Exhibit 24 - Global Positioning System (GPS) applications and industry use
- Exhibit 25 - Australia - revenue mix PSMS
List Of Tables
- Table 1 - Mobile data revenues - leading operators - 1st quarter 2006
- Table 2 - Global wireless broadband subscribers by technology - 2011
- Table 3 - Mobile data as a % of operators revenue - 2005
- Table 4 - Mobile data (non SMS) as a % of operators revenue - 2005
- Table 5 - No. of EDGE network deployments by region - October 2006
- Table 6 - i-mode subscribers and annual change - Japan - 2000 - 2006
- Table 7 - No. of countries with HSDPA network commitments by region - 2006
- Table 8 - Estimated number of SMS text messages sent worldwide - 2006; 2010
- Table 9 - US Consumer IM Destinations and monthly growth - June/July - 2005
- Table 10 - Data as a percent of revenue for top 15 companies - 2003
- Table 11 - Broadcast mobile TV subscribers worldwide - 2006; 2009
- Table 12 - Broadcast mobile TV revenue forecast - leading countries - 2011
- Table 13 - Predictions of global m-commerce revenues - 2006, 2009 - 2010
- Table 14 - Forecast of number of regional mobile users purchasing retail goods via mobile - 2010
- Table 15 - Regional share of mobile entertainment revenues - 2006; 2011
- Table 16 - ARPU per mobile user for voice and data by region - 2004
- Table 17 - Top US mobile content and applications and annual change - February 2005
- Table 18 - Type of mobile content accessed by region - early 2005
- Table 19 - Global mobile adult content revenues - 2005 - 2006; 2009; 2011
- Table 20 - Number of mobile game users - global monthly averages - 2005; 2010
- Table 21 - Forecast mobile music revenues for Asia Pacific - 2005; 2010
- Table 22 - Forecast mobile music revenues for North America - 2005; 2011
- Table 23 - Growth of photo messaging in North America, France, UK - Feb 2006 - July 2006
- Table 24 - Global mobile sports revenue forecast - 2006; 2011
- Table 25 - Global mobile advertising spend forecast - 2007; 2011
- Table 26 - European wireless patient monitoring market revenues - 2004; 2011
- Table 27 - NFC-enabled mobile phone shipments worldwide - 2011
- Table 28 - RFID tags sold worldwide - 2005 - 2006
- Table 29 - RFID spending in US - 2002 - 2008
- Table 30 - Worldwide location-based service subscribers - 2006; 2011
- Table 31 - Worldwide mobile handset sales - 2004 - 2006
- Table 32 - Mobile handset revenues worldwide - 2002 - 2006
- Table 33 - Mobile systems sales revenue per vendor - 2004 - 2007
- Table 34 - Mobile phone features desired by US users - June 2004
- Table 35 - Handset supplier's market shares - 1998 - 2005
- Table 36 - Revenues PSMS market - 2004 - 2007