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BMI Asia Handset Markets
Key Trends and Opportunities 2007-2014

  • Publication Date:September 2010
  • Publisher:Business Monitor
  • Product Type: Report
  • Pages:88

BMI Asia Handset Markets Key Trends and Opportunities 2007-2014

Half Of The Market By 2014 Improves Affordability And Performance Driving Sales The global market for mobile telephone services is the largest and, arguably, the fastest-growing segment of the telecommunications industry. BMI's databases recorded a total of 4.628bn mobile subscribers at the end of 2009 - a figure we expect to almost double to 8.134bn by the end of 2014. Within that, Asia is expected to show the steepest projected rate of growth. BMI therefore believes that the Asian region will also be the single largest market for mobile handsets by the end of our forecast period.

BMI's forecasts underline our belief that significant organic growth opportunities remain unexploited in many of the region's emerging markets (and in some maturing markets, too), particularly where operators have traditionally been reluctant to step into rural, remote and economically deprived areas. Operators that choose to do so will find it difficult to make profit on the scale to which they have been accustomed in more affluent markets. But their rewards for making these ostensibly risky investments will come from helping low-income users transform their social standing, which will impact on the local economy and thus drive future revenues.

The accompanying chart shows BMI's forecasts for mobile subscriber growth over the next five years. It clearly demonstrates that Asia and Africa offer the greatest potential for expansion over the period in question, as many new networks begin to roll out across both continents. It is, perhaps, unsurprising that Asia should show the steepest projected rate of growth, despite the fact that the region is largely better served by successful operators. There is a huge number of people who currently do not own a mobile phone because they cannot afford a handset. Actively using basic and value-added services is even further beyond their means. This is why handset manufacturers, such as Nokia, are striving to make their products as affordable as possible. Essentially, more affordable handsets means greater sales volumes (though not necessarily greater revenues from handset sales).

Getting those handsets into the hands of low-income consumers is one thing - encouraging them to spend what little income they have to spare on basic and value-added services is another. And, here, Nokia is also leading the way, by incorporating simple software-based services that give users access to essential life tools, such as weather, financial, location and education services germane to those users' lifestyles and geographic locations. Nokia is increasingly positioning itself as a service provider, allowing it to offset any losses it makes from selling ultra low-cost handsets by deriving revenues from access to its software-based information services. It partners with local content providers (banks, media, local government, etc) to obtain the content and services are delivered over local networks. This leaves operators in the uncomfortable situation of acting as mere 'dumb pipes' but does, at least, give them the opportunity to earn revenue from the traffic carried over their networks and maybe to entice users onto their premium valueadded service platforms.

Low Costs Key To Signing New Mobile Users Global Mobile Subscriber Growth ('000 Subscribers), 2005-2014 Nokia is having to change tactics in order to survive the onslaught of a host of new competitors. On the one hand, it is attempting to ramp-up the quality of its high-end devices, or smartphones, as these products increasingly appeal even to casual mobile phone users in developed markets. The appeal of mobile applications to improve the mobile internet experience is also a key selling point and Nokia has launched its Ovi-branded mobile store, to some degree of success.

On the other hand, Nokia is all too aware that operators' efforts to tap the under-served low-income and rural consumer markets in Asia, Africa and Latin America need the support of a low-cost device portfolio. The company is, therefore, actively championing some of the most affordable products on the market.

This reflects the sector's polarisation into high-end and low-end products and, as such, Nokia should continue to do well in the years ahead, despite heightened competition in the smartphone market and growing dissatisfaction (from the technical community rather than the user community, it has to be said) with Nokia's reluctance to use an operating system (OS) other than its tried and trusted Symbian platform, a flirtation with the Meego OS for mobile computing notwithstanding. Clearly, the market has changed enormously in the last three years, and Nokia cannot afford to rest on its laurels in either the smartphone or the low-cost handsets field. Its principal challenge comes from the OS front, though, as this and the handset user interface (UI) are often the key elements that persuade a consumer to take a particular handset.

Cost Is King In Asia Although Nokia is a champion of low-cost handsets for rural consumers, the fact that it needs to import devices from its various manufacturing and assembly plants means that its devices attract various shipping and other marketing taxes, which keep the prices of its handsets from falling too low.

Consequently, the region's poorest consumers are resorting to indigenously made handsets which cost very little to develop and sport little in the way of battery-consuming gadgetry that is irrelevant to their everyday needs. Whereas Nokia was facing off against multinational rivals such as Motorola, Samsung and LG Electronics for the hearts and minds of Indian and Chinese consumers, it now finds itself outgunned by local white label and home-grown brands able to get sub-US$50 devices onto the market. Among these micro-vendors are India's Micromax and Wynn Telecom and China's Tianyu and G-G-Five. BMI expects these companies to take to the international stage before long, buoyed by the relatively low costs of developing unique OSs based on open source systems such as Android and Linux.

Times are changing, but perhaps not as fast as the handset sector.

  • Executive Summary
    • Asia To Account For More Than Half Of The Market By 2014
    • Improves Affordability And Performance Driving Sales11
    • chart: Low Costs Key To Signing New Mobile Users
    • Global Mobile Subscriber Growth ('000 Subscribers), 2005-2014
    • chart: Nokia Still King Of The Phones
    • Mobile Handset Market Shares By Vendor, Q210
    • Cost Is King In Asia
  • Trends
    • Trends: Broad Trends And Characteristics
    • Growing Affordability Of Mobile Handsets
    • Continuing Growth Increasingly Driven By Replacement Demand
    • Increasing Demand For Differentiated Mobile Handsets With More Functions And Features
    • Continual Evolution Of Wireless Network Technologies
    • chart: 2G Dominates Em erging Markets As 35G Takes Hold
    • Global Mobile Subscribers By Technology (‘000 Subscribers), 2005-2014
    • Highly Competitive Market
    • Trends: Average Selling Prices
    • chart: Declining Handset AS Ps Yet To Plateau
    • Annual Mobile Phone ASPs By Key Vendor, 2006-2009 (US$)
    • chart: Low Cost Equals Greater Sales
    • Key Vendors' Quarterly ASPs (US$), 2008-2010
    • Table: Annual Mobile Phone AS Ps By Key Vendor, 2006-2009 (US$)
    • operator: nokia, samsung, motorola, lg electronics, sony ericsson, rim, palm, htc,
    • qiao xing (cect)
  • Q210 Market Analysis
    • Handset Growth Rallies BMI's Above-Consensus Sales Forecast
    • Nokia Still King For Now
    • chart: Nokia Still Fl ying High For Now
    • Leading Handset Vendors' Market Shares (%), Q407-Q210
    • chart: Nokia Still King Of The Phones
    • Mobile Handset Market Shares By Vendor, Q210
  • Handset Forecasts
    • Global Handset Market Forecasts, 2007-2014
    • Asia Is The Engine For Growth
    • chart: Asia Will Power Gl obal Handset Sales Growth
    • Global Handset Shipments By Major Market (‘000 Devices), 2006-2014
    • Table: TOTA L PHONE SHI PMENTS PER ANN UM (‘000)19
    • region: north america, latin America, caribbean, western europe, eastern europe, asia,
    • middle east, africa, total
    • Asia Handset Market Forecasts, 2007-2014
    • India And China Set The Pace
    • 4 Business Monitor International Ltd
    • BMI Asia Handset Market: Key Trends & Opportunities, 2007-2014
    • table: Annual HAN DSET SHI PMENTS BY MAJOR MAR KET , 2005-2014 (‘000)
    • region: australia, bangladesh, china, hong kong, india, indonesia, japan, pakistan,
    • singapore, south korea, taiwan, thailand, otheres, total
    • chart: India's Handset App etite To Match That Of China
    • Asia Handset Shipments By Major Market (‘000 Devices), 2006-2014
  • Case Studies
    • Case 1: India's Upstart Micro Vendors
    • Eroding Leading Brands' Market Shares
    • Case 2: Nokia's Life Tools Suite Helps Target China's Rural Users
    • Two Thirds Of New Users To Come From Rural NEGAS
    • chart: Low-Income Users Targeted With Cheap Handsets
    • Average Mobile TCO Per Low-Income Consumer (US$)
    • chart: Ru ral Users Targeted With Lower Handset TCO s
    • Breakdown Of Average Asian Mobile TCO, 2009 (US$1736)
    • Case 3: Vendors Target Untapped Markets With Low-Cost Handsets
    • Nokia Targets TCO Of Less Than US$15
    • chart: Independents Target Low Income Users With Cheap Handsets
    • Average Mobile TCO Per Low-Income Consumer (US$)
    • Vendor Profile
    • ‘Quietly Brilliant': A Winning Strategy
    • Taiwanese Sprat Swimming With The Big Fish
  • Financial Highlights
    • chart: Qu ietly Brill iant In Many Ways
    • HTC Revenues And Profits (TWDmn), Q209-Q210
    • chart: HTC Leverages Android's Popul arity
    • HTC Handset Shipment Trends, Q209-Q210 (‘000)
    • chart: Bu siness Unusual: Relative Stability For HTC 's Handset AS Ps
    • HTC Mobile Handset ASP Trends, Q209-Q210
    • Asia Mobile Market Forecasts
  • Australia
    • chart: Au stralia Indu stry Trends – Mobile Sector
    • 2007-2014
    • Table: Au stralia Telecoms Sector – Mobile – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2007-2014
    • indicators: no of mobile phone subscribers (‘000), no of mobile phone subscribers/100
    • inhabitants, no of mobile phone subscribers/100 fixed-line subscribers, no of 3g phone
    • subscribers (‘000), 3g market as % entire mobile market
    • ARPU
    • chart: Au stralia Mobile AR PU – Historical Data & Forecasts (AUD)
    • 2007-2014
    • Table: Au stralia Telecoms Sector – Mobile AR PU – Historical Data & Forecasts (AUD),2007-2014
    • operator: telstra, optus, vha, market average
  • China
    • chart: China Indu stry Trends – Mobile Sector
    • 2007-2014
    • ARPU
    • Table: China Telecoms Sector – Mobiles – Historical Data & Forecasts
    • indicators: no of mobile phone subscribers (‘000), no of mobile phone subscribers/100
    • inhabitants, no of mobile phone subscribers/100 fixed-line subscribers, no of 3g phone
    • subscribers (‘000), 3g market as % entire mobile market
    • chart: China AR PU
    • 2007-2014
    • Table: China Telecoms Sector – AR PU – Historical Data & Forecasts (CNY )
    • operator: china mobile, china unicom, china telecom, total, market average
  • India
    • chart: India Indu stry Trends – Mobile Sector
    • 2007-2014
    • ARPU
    • Table: India Mobile Historical Data & Forecasts
    • indicators: no of mobile phone subscribers (‘000), no of mobile phone subscribers/100
    • inhabitants, no of mobile phone subscribers/100 fixed-line subscribers, no of 3g phone
    • subscribers (‘000), 3g market as % entire mobile market
    • chart: India Indu stry Trends – Mobile Sector AR PU
    • 2007-2014
    • Table: India Mobile AR PU – Historical Data & Forecasts (INR )
    • operator: gsm blended arpu, cdma blended arpu, total, market average
  • Japan
    • chart: Japan Indu stry Trends – Mobile Sector
    • (2007-2014)
    • ARPU
    • Table: Japan Telecoms Sector – Mobile – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2007-2014
    • indicators: no of mobile phone subscribers (‘000), no of mobile phone subscribers/100
    • inhabitants, no of mobile phone subscribers/100 fixed-line subscribers, no of 3g phone
    • subscribers (‘000), 3g market as % entire mobile market
    • Table: Japan Telecoms Sector – AR PU – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2006-2014
    • operator: ntt docomo, kddi, softbank mobile, total, market average
    • chart: Japan Indu stry Trends – AR PU
    • (2007-2014)
  • Pakistan
    • chart: Pakistan Indu stry Trends – Mobile Sector
    • 2007-2014
    • Table: Pakistan Telecoms Sector – Mobile – Historical Data & Forecasts
    • indicators: no of mobile phone subscribers (‘000), no of mobile phone subscribers/100
    • inhabitants, no of mobile phone subscribers/100 fixed-line subscribers, no of 3g phone
    • subscribers (‘000), 3g market as % entire mobile market
    • ARPU
    • chart: Pakistan Mobile AR PU – Historical Data And Forecasts (US$)
    • 2007-2014
    • Table: Pakistan Telecoms Sector – Mobile AR PU – Historical Data And Forecasts (US$)
    • operator: moblink, telnor 1, total, market average
  • Singapore
    • Table: Singapore Telecoms Sector – Mobile – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2007-2014
    • indicators: no of mobile phone subscribers (‘000), no of mobile phone subscribers/100
    • inhabitants, no of mobile phone subscribers/100 fixed-line subscribers, no of 3g phone
    • subscribers (‘000), 3g market as % entire mobile market
    • chart: Singapore Indu stry Trends – Mobile Forecast
    • 2007-2014
    • ARPU
    • chart: Singapore Indu stry Trends – AR PU Forecast
    • 2007-2014
    • Table: Singapore Telecoms Sector – Mobile AR PU – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2007-2014 (SG D)
    • operator: sing tel mobile, star hub, m1, total, market average
  • Taiwan
    • chart: Taiwan Indu stry Trends – Mobile Sector
    • 2007-2014
    • Table: Taiwan Telecoms Sector – Mobile – Historical Data And Forecasts
    • indicators: no of mobile phone subscribers (‘000), no of mobile phone subscribers/100
    • inhabitants, no of mobile phone subscribers/100 fixed-line subscribers, no of 3g phone
    • subscribers (‘000), 3g market as % entire mobile market
    • Table: Taiwan Telecoms Sector – AR PU – Historical Data & Forecasts (TW D)
    • operator: chunghwa telecom, twm, fareastone, market average
    • ARPU
    • chart: Taiwan Mobile AR PU – Historical Data & Forecasts (TW D)
    • 2006-2014
    • Asia Mobile Market Analyses
  • Australia
    • chart: Au stralian Mobile Market
    • 2007-2010 (‘000)
    • Table: Au stralian Mobile Market, March 201046
    • operator: telstra mobile, optus mobile, vodafone hutchinson australia, total
    • 3G
    • chart: Au stralia 3G Mobile Market
    • December 2009 (‘000)
    • Table: Au stralia 3G Market, December 200948
    • operator: telstra mobile, optus mobile, vodafone hutchinson australia, total
    • HSPA (35G)
    • Mobile Content
    • Mobile TV
    • Table: Au stralia Telstra's Mobile Revenue Breakd own (AUDmn)
    • breakdown: access fees and call charges, total mobile data, ow messaging,
    • ow non-messaging, ow wireless broadband, total mobile service revenues: retail
    • and interconnection, mobile service revenues: mobile interconnection, total mobile
    • service revenues: wholesale, total mobile service revenues, mobile hardware, total
    • mobile revenues
    • Business Monitor International Ltd
    • specia l report
  • China
    • Table: China Mobile Market, March 201052
    • operator: china mobile (hk), china unicom, china telecom, total
    • Table: China Mobile Net Add itions, March 201053
    • operator: china mobile (hk), china unicom, china telecom, total
    • 3G
    • Table: China 3G Mobile Market, March 201054
    • operator: china telecom, china mobile (hk), china unicom, total
    • China Mobile
    • China Unicom
    • China Telecom
    • Mobile Content
    • chart: China Mobile VAS Revenues
    • FY09e (%)
    • chart: China Unicom VAS Revenues
    • FY09e (%)
    • Table: China Mobile VAS Revenues (CNY bn)56
    • operator: china mobile, china unicom, china telecom, total
    • Mobile Broadband
    • Mobile TV
    • Handset Market Share
    • chart: Chinese Handset Market Share By Vendor
    • 2009
  • India
    • chart: Indian Mobile Market Growth (mn)
    • 2007-2010
    • Table: Indian Mobile (GS M/CDMA) Market, March 2010
    • operator: bharti airtel, reliance, vodafone essar, bsnl, tata teleservices, idea cellular,
    • aircel, mtnl, loop mobile, others, total
    • 3G
    • Mobile Content
  • Japan
    • Table: Japan Mobile And PHS Market Share, March 2010
    • operator: ntt docomo, kddi, softbank mobile, wilcom, emobile, uq communications, total
    • Table: Japan Mobile And PHS Net Add itions Market Share, March 2010
    • operator: softbank mobile, ntt docomo, kddi, emobile, wilcom, uq communications, total
    • 3G
    • Table: 3G Mobile Su bscriber Market, March 2010
    • operator: ntt docomo, kddi, softbank mobile, emobile, total
    • Table: 3G Mobile Net Add itions, March 201068
    • operator: ntt docomo, kddi, softbank mobile, emobile, total
    • LTE
    • Mobile Content
    • Music
    • Video & Gaming
    • 8 Business Monitor International Ltd
    • BMI Asia Handset Market: Key Trends & Opportunities, 2007-2014
    • Mobile Internet
    • chart: Japan Mobile Internet Su bscribers
    • 2007-2010 (‘000)
  • Pakistan
    • chart: Pakistan Mobile Market Growth
    • 2007-2010
    • Table: Pakistan Mobile Market, Net Add itions Q110
    • operator: telenor, warid, ufone, zong, moblink, instaphone, total
    • Table: Pakistan Mobile Market, March 201072
    • operator: moblink, telenor, ufone, warid telecom, zong, instaphone, total
    • Table: Mobile Base Stations By Op erator72
    • operator: moblink, telenor, ufone, warid telecom, zong, instaphone, total
    • Subscriber Mix & ARPU
    • chart: A Comp arison Of Mobilink, Telenor's Prepaid Base
    • Percentage Of The Subscriber Total (%)
    • 3G
    • Mobile Content
    • M-Commerce
  • Singapore
    • chart: Singapore – Postpaid Su bscriber Base75
    • By Operator (mn) 2007-2010
    • Table: Singapore Wireless Market, Q110
    • operator: singtel mobile, starhub, m1, total
    • 3G
    • chart: Singapore – 3G Mobile Cu stomer Growth
    • 2007-2010 (‘000)
    • Table: Singapore 3G Net Add itions Market, Q11078
    • operator: singtel mobile, m1, starhub, total
    • Mobile Content
    • chart: Singapore SMS Market
    • 2007-2010
    • Mobile Broadband
    • chart: Singapore Wireless Broadband Su bscriptions (mn)
    • 2007-2010
    • Mobile TV
  • Taiwan
    • chart: Taiwan Mobile Su bscriber Growth
    • 2007-2010
    • chart: Taiwan's Leading Three Op erators Su bscribers By Service Type (mn)
    • 2006-2010
    • Table: Taiwan Mobile Market, March 201082
    • operator: chungwa telecom, twm, fareastone, apbw (e), vibo (e), fitel (e), total
    • Business Monitor International Ltd
    • specia l report
    • Subscriber Divisions
    • Table: Taiwan Mobile Op erators, Net Add itions (Q110)
    • operator: chungwa telecom, vibo (e), apbw (e), fitel (e), taiwan mobile, fareastone, total
    • 3G
    • chart: Taiwan 3G Su bscriber Market – Total No Of 3G Mobile Handsets (mn)
    • 2007-2009
    • Table: Taiwan 3G Mobile Market, March 201084
    • operator: chungwa telecom, taiwan mobile, fareastone, apbw (e), vibo (e), total
    • Long-Term Evolution (4G)
    • Mobile Content
    • Table: Mobile Contract Wins86
    • period: january 2003 - april 2010
    • Table: Asia Mobile VAS Market By Service, 2009 (US$bn)
    • indicators: messaging, internet access, music, games,video,other, total
    • Country Outlook
    • chart: Taiwan Mobile Internet Su bscribers
    • 2001-2009
    • chart: Taiwan SMS Volum e And Revenues
    • 2001-2009
    • Mobile Banking
    • Mobile TV
  • Glossary of Terms
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