Open source market forecast: Linux

Publication Date	February 2008
Publisher	Ovum
Product Type	Report
Pages	36
ISBN Number	not applicable
Product Code	OVM00392

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Summary

This report analyses and forecasts Linux software and service revenue opportunities in enterprises and public sector organisations, as well as among individual consumers. We look at both the server and client markets, but exclude the embedded Linux market.

The market for Linux products and services will grow from $2.4 billion in 2007 to $7.7 billion in 2012. Growth will slow down from 36% in 2008 to 17% in 2012. The revenue figures are small compared to other operating system (OS) markets, but the impact of Linux on other OSs will be much more significant than these figures would lead you to believe.

Linux service revenues will grow faster than Linux software revenues. Services will grow from 77% to 81% of the total Linux market between 2007 and 2012, as Linux use becomes more complex. The server market is the main segment of the overall Linux market. This segment accounts for 83% of the market in 2007. However, by 2012, Linux's importance as a client OS will have grown and, as a result, server-based use of Linux software and services will reduce to 81% of the overall market.

Content

Key messages
- Linux is old hat
- Linux benefits from virtualisation
- Linux is becoming a software appliance OS
- Linux vendors need to tackle the virtualisation challenge
- The top two vendors will consolidate their position
Market overview
- Market definition
- Market forecast
- Market drivers
- Market barriers
Linux as a server OS
- Market segments
- Market forecast
- Market drivers
- Market barriers
- Linux as a mainframe server OS
- Linux as an enterprise/business unit server OS
- Linux as a departmental/SMB server OS
Linux as a client OS
- Market segments
- Market forecast
- Linux as a single-function client OS
- Linux as a limited-function client OS
- Linux as a multi-function client OS
Table of figures
- Figure 1 Worldwide Linux market: 2007-2012
- Figure 2 Linux market by company type: 2007-2012
- Figure 3 Linux market by region: 2007-2012
- Figure 4 Vendor consolidation: 2007-2012
- Figure 5 Linux as a server OS versus client OS: 2007-2012
- Figure 6 Linux as a server OS: software versus service revenues: 2007-2012
- Figure 7 Linux as a server OS by OS server segment: 2004-2009
- Figure 8 From an infrastructure OS to an application OS: 2007-2012
- Figure 9 Percentage infrastructure versus application revenues by server OS segment: 2007-2012
- Figure 10 Linux as a client - mostly a limited function one: 2007-2012
- Figure 11 Linux as a multi-function client - enterprises to overtake consumers: 2007-2012