1Q08 North America Mobile Forecast

2007 - 2010

Publication Date	January 2007
Publisher	IE Market Research
Product Type	Report
Pages
ISBN Number	not applicable
Product Code	IEM00343

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Summary

IEMR's Mobile Forecast on North America provides over 65 operational and financial metrics for the North America wireless market. We cover quarterly historical data starting in 3Q2003 and ending in 3Q2007. We also provide four-year forecasts at the operator level going out to 2010. Our Regional forecasts contain separate data for each country and their mobile operators. Our Mobile Forecasts are updated quarterly and are available for one-time delivery or through regular updates.

Through IEMR's custom-designed spreadsheets you can select specific metrics and customize the results based on country and operator. A set of charts will also be created automatically based on your selections. This allows for quick access to desired data, saving the time typically wasted scrolling through the data and allowing for comparisons across countries and operators. This regional forecast also has the added function of charting all operational and financial metrics for a single country simply by selecting it from a drop down menu.

Notable highlights of the 1Q08 North America Mobile Forecast include:

We are maintaining our forecast for the wireless subscriber base in the United States. We expect the subscriber base in the United States to reach 297 million in 2010. We are forecasting a 26% market share for Verizon Wireless and a 27% market share for Cingular Wireless.
In Canada, we are forecasting that Rogers Wireless will to continue to be the largest operator with a subscriber base of 9.5 million in 2010 (up from our previous quarterly forecast of 9.4 million subscribers). The level of competition with the two other operators in the Canadian market market will be maintained. Rogers Wireless, Bell Mobility and Telus Mobility will have similar market shares (by subscribers) of 37%, 31%, and 28% respectively.
Given the level of competition in Canada, we are now forecasting that in 2010, the operator with the highest ARPU in the region will be MTS Allstream at US$ 60.25. In fact, we are expecting that all of the Canadian wireless operators with the exception of Bell Mobility will have ARPU levels higher than the highest US operator (which will be Sprint Nextel)
MOU per subscriber in the two countries will be very different in 2010, primarily reflecting pricing differentials in the Canadian and US markets. We are now forecasting average MOU/month of 916 minutes in the United States while we expect Canada to have an average MOU/month of only 509 minutes.

Content

Countries Covered in This Regional Mobile Forecast
United States
Canada
Companies Covered in This Regional Mobile Forecast
Verizon Wireless
Cingular Wireless
at&T Wireless
Sprint
Nextel
T-Mobile USA
Bell Mobility
Rogers Wireless (Incl. Microcell)
Telus Mobility
Mts
Other Bell Affiliates
Charts 1-68 Results & Forecasts for: Cy04-Cy10
- Chart 1: Prepaid and Postpaid Subscribers
- Chart 2: Subscriber Growth (Yoy)
- Chart 3: Subscribers by Operator
- Chart 4: Subscriber Growth by Operator (Yoy)
- Chart 5: Net Subscriber Adds by Operator
- Chart 6: Net Subscriber Adds Growth by Operator
- Chart 7: Monthly Churn by Operator
- Chart 8: Post-Paid Subscribers by Operator
- Chart 9: Post-Paid Subscriber Growth by Operator (Yoy)
- Chart 10: Prepaid/Wholesale Subscribers by Operator
- Chart 11: Prepaid/Wholesale Subscriber Growth by Operator
- Chart 12: Post-Paid % of Total Subscribers by Operator
- Chart 13: Prepaid/Wholesale % of Total Subscribers by Operator
- Chart 14: Post-Paid Net Adds by Operator
- Chart 15: Post-Paid Adds Growth by Operator (Yoy)
- Chart 16: Prepaid/Wholesale Net Adds by Operator
- Chart 17: Prepaid/Wholesale Adds Growth by Operator
- Chart 18: Gross Additions by Operator
- Chart 19: Gross Additions Growth by Operator (Yoy)
- Chart 20: Monthly Arpu by Operator
- Chart 21: Monthly Arpu Growth by Operator (Yoy %)
- Chart 22: Data % of Service Revenues by Operator
- Chart 23: Monthly Data Arpu by Operator
- Chart 24: Data Arpu Growth by Operator (Yoy)
- Chart 25: Monthly Voice Arpu by Operator
- Chart 26: Voice Arpu Growth by Operator (Yoy)
- Chart 27: Voice Revenue per Minute by Operator
- Chart 28: Voice Revenue per Minute Growth by Operator (Yoy)
- Chart 29: Mou per Subscriber by Operator (Minutes/Month)
- Chart 30: Mou/Subscriber Growth by Operator (Yoy %)
- Chart 31: Aggregate Mou by Operator
- Chart 32: Aggregate Mou Growth by Operator (Yoy %)
- Chart 33: Share of Total Subscribers by Operator
- Chart 34: Hhi Index by Subscriber Share
- Chart 35: Share of Net Adds by Operator
- Chart 36: Share of Post-Paid Net Adds by Operator
- Chart 37: Share of Prepaid/Wholesale Net Adds by Operator
- Chart 38: Share of Gross Adds by Operator
- Chart 39: Share of Service Revenue by Operator
- Chart 40: Hhi Index by Service Revenue Share
- Chart 41: Yoy Change in Revenue Share by Operator
- Chart 42: Reported Revenue by Operator (Reporting Currency)
- Chart 43: Service Revenue by Operator (Reporting Currency)
- Chart 44: Ebitda by Operator (Reporting Currency)
- Chart 45: Capex by Operator (Reporting Currency)
- Chart 46: Service Revenue Growth by Operator (Yoy)
- Chart 47: Ebitda Growth by Operator (Yoy)
- Chart 48: Ebitda/Reported Revenue by Operator
- Chart 49: Ebitda/Service Revenue by Operator
- Chart 50: Ebitda/Incremental Service Revenue by Operator
- Chart 51: Capex/Reported Revenue by Operator
- Chart 52: Capex/Service Revenue by Operator
- Chart 53: (Ebitda-Capex)/Reported Revenue by Operator
- Chart 54: Ebitda Margin Expansion/Contraction by Operator
- Chart 55: Reported Revenue by Operator (USD)
- Chart 56: Arpu by Operator (USD)
- Chart 57: Data Arpu by Operator (USD)
- Chart 58: Voice Rev/Minute by Operator (USD)
- Chart 59: Service Revenue by Operator (USD)
- Chart 60: Ebitda by Operator (USD)
- Chart 61: Capex by Operator (USD)
- Chart 62: Reported Revenue by Operator (EUR)
- Chart 63: Arpu by Operator (EUR)
- Chart 64: Data Arpu by Operator (EUR)
- Chart 65: Voice Revenue/Minute by Operator (EUR)
- Chart 66: Service Revenue by Operator (EUR)
- Chart 67: Ebitda by Operator (EUR)
- Chart 68: Capex by Operator (EUR)
- Charts 69-136 Quarterly Results for: Sept 04 - Sept 07
- Chart 69: Prepaid and Postpaid Subscribers
- Chart 70: Subscriber Growth (Yoy)
- Chart 71: Subscribers by Operator
- Chart 72: Subscriber Growth by Operator (Yoy)
- Chart 73: Net Subscriber Adds by Operator
- Chart 74: Net Subscriber Adds Growth by Operator
- Chart 75: Monthly Churn by Operator
- Chart 76: Post-Paid Subscribers by Operator
- Chart 77: Post-Paid Subscriber Growth by Operator (Yoy)
- Chart 78: Prepaid/Wholesale Subscribers by Operator
- Chart 79: Prepaid/Wholesale Subscriber Growth by Operator
- Chart 80: Post-Paid % of Total Subscribers by Operator
- Chart 81: Prepaid/Wholesale % of Total Subscribers by Operator
- Chart 82: Post-Paid Net Adds by Operator
- Chart 83: Post-Paid Adds Growth by Operator (Yoy)
- Chart 84: Prepaid/Wholesale Net Adds by Operator
- Chart 85: Prepaid/Wholesale Adds Growth by Operator
- Chart 86: Gross Additions by Operator
- Chart 87: Gross Additions Growth by Operator (Yoy)
- Chart 88: Monthly Arpu by Operator
- Chart 89: Monthly Arpu Growth by Operator (Yoy %)
- Chart 90: Data % of Service Revenues by Operator
- Chart 91: Monthly Data Arpu by Operator
- Chart 92: Data Arpu Growth by Operator (Yoy)
- Chart 93: Monthly Voice Arpu by Operator
- Chart 94: Voice Arpu Growth by Operator (Yoy)
- Chart 95: Voice Revenue per Minute by Operator
- Chart 96: Voice Revenue per Minute Growth by Operator (Yoy)
- Chart 97: Mou per Subscriber by Operator (Minutes/Month)
- Chart 98: Mou/Subscriber Growth by Operator (Yoy %)
- Chart 99: Aggregate Mou by Operator
- Chart 100: Aggregate Mou Growth by Operator (Yoy %)
- Chart 101: Share of Total Subscribers by Operator
- Chart 102: Hhi Index by Subscriber Share
- Chart 103: Share of Net Adds by Operator
- Chart 104: Share of Post-Paid Net Adds by Operator
- Chart 105: Share of Prepaid/Wholesale Net Adds by Operator
- Chart 106: Share of Gross Adds by Operator
- Chart 107: Share Service Revenue by Operator
- Chart 108: Hhi Index by Service Revenue Share
- Chart 109: Yoy Change in Revenue Share by Operator
- Chart 110: Reported Revenue by Operator (Reporting Currency)
- Chart 111: Service Revenue by Operator (Reporting Currency)
- Chart 112: Ebitda by Operator (Reporting Currency)
- Chart 113: Capex by Operator (Reporting Currency)
- Chart 114: Service Revenue Growth by Operator (Yoy)
- Chart 115: Ebitda Growth by Operator (Yoy)
- Chart 116: Ebitda/Reported Revenue by Operator
- Chart 117: Ebitda/Service Revenue by Operator
- Chart 118: Ebitda/Incremental Service Revenue by Operator
- Chart 119: Capex/Reported Revenue by Operator
- Chart 120: Capex/Service Revenue by Operator
- Chart 121: (Ebitda-Capex)/Reported Revenue by Operator
- Chart 122: Ebitda Margin Expansion/Contraction by Operator
- Chart 123: Reported Revenue by Operator (USD)
- Chart 124: Arpu by Operator (USD)
- Chart 125: Data Arpu by Operator (USD)
- Chart 126: Voice Rev/Minute by Operator (USD)
- Chart 127: Service Revenue by Operator (USD)
- Chart 128: Ebitda by Operator (USD)
- Chart 129: Capex by Operator (USD)
- Chart 130: Reported Revenue by Operator (EUR)
- Chart 131: Arpu by Operator (EUR)
- Chart 132: Data Arpu by Operator (EUR)
- Chart 133: Voice Revenue/Minute by Operator (EUR)
- Chart 134: Service Revenue by Operator (EUR)
- Chart 135: Ebitda by Operator (EUR)
- Chart 136: Capex by Operator (EUR)