2008 Global Mobile - Data and Content Markets

Publication Date	February 2008
Publisher	BuddeComm
Product Type	Report
Pages	183
ISBN Number	not applicable
Product Code	BUD00243

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Summary

This annual report offers a wealth of information on the worldwide development of mobile data and content. Information on a regional level is also provided for the Americas, Europe, Middle East and Asia Pacific. The report includes analyses, statistics, forecasts and trends. It provides a comprehensive insight into the progress of mobile data and examines some the issues impacting upon the operators and overall uptake of the services. In addition, the report provides information on mobile data infrastructure.

Topics covered include:

Overview and analyses of the mobile data market;
Statistics and forecasts for key mobile content and services;
Mobile messaging services;
Mobile TV/video;
Mobile commerce and M-payments;
Telemetry and RFID;
Location Based Services (LBS) and GPS;
Mobile handsets;
Mobile data infrastructure;
Regional overview.
Researchers: Paul Budde, Lawrence Baker, Lucia Bibolini, Peter Evans, Phil Harpur, Kay Harris, Lisa Hulme-Jones, Paul Kwon, Henry Lancaster, Peter Lange, Kylie Wansink
Edition: 12th
Current Publication Date: February 2008
Next Publication Date; February 2009

The mobile data sector offers enormous potential, reflected by the number of diverse players all vying for this market. Competition is increasing and there is some evidence that usage of mobile data content and services is starting to grow - albeit slowly.

In 2008 the mobile operators will continue to focus on IMS. This offers the potential to have interoperability of applications over various networks - a very powerful tool for telcos in their battle to maintain supremacy in the market. Mobile operators need to retain a competitive edge as mobile manufacturers and Internet Media companies (ie, Google) attempt to move into the mobile data space. Apple and Google have already set the cat among the pigeons; they are promoting phones that will make it much easier to access web-based services and, with Google's proven advertising skills, this will almost certainly mean a lot of free services for the users. Google is also exploring mobile LBS; currently predicted as a mobile data growth area for 2008.

While we acknowledge that there is huge potential for wireless data, mobility services and media rich content, both the business and technical fundamentals of the current marketplace are not conducive to significant growth in mobile content. As a result, voice will remain the killer application for mobile for the time being, with data services included as support services and niche market services. BuddeComm sees wireless broadband (4G or WiMAX) as the real solution required to unlock the mobile data sector.

Even though the technology issues regarding the delivery of mobile data have not yet been resolved, operators continue to move forward with HSPA; many commercial rollouts of both HSUPA (uplink) and HSDPA (downlink) are either underway or planned for 2008. The question is, will HSPA ever reach its true mass market potential or will WiMAX or 4G take that position in 2010-2012

The most popular mobile data segment of all, SMS, is set to continue its growth in 2008 with estimates that over 2 trillion messages will be sent worldwide. This supports our claim that of the various new telecoms technologies and innovations over the last few decades, there can only be one conclusion drawn - the most popular services are usually communications-based - not entertainment, not information, but communications. We expect mobile messaging revenues to account for around $65-75 billion in 2008. However, while mobile messaging traffic volumes will increase, market saturation and increasing competition, which is affecting the mobile industry as a whole, is expected to slightly dampen down overall messaging revenue growth.

The other data service in which mobile has been reasonably successful is the telemetry sector. This market is continuing to develop fast with the uptake of telemetry applications by healthcare facilities and the use of RFID based applications in the manufacturing and logistics industries.

Use of LBS, including GPS is also expected to continue during 2008 with LBS proving popular in North America due to services such as the Disney Family Locator. Car navigation systems are also increasing in popularity, particularly in Europe and the US.

Banks and financial services sectors are beginning to pay great interest in mobile commerce, particularly m-payments and m-banking. Developments in contactless payments are continuing and in 2008 there are many trials of mobile payments taking place around the world. A major pilot is being conducted in Europe by O2 in the UK using NFC technology on mobile phones. Focus has also turned to the developing markets, where mobile phones are being viewed as an opportunity to reach the masses that would not otherwise use m-payment or m-banking services.

The hype regarding mobile TV continues in 2008. However, the reality is that very few people are prepared to pay the prices that the operators are charging for the service. The current technologies - and, more importantly, its business models - don't yet stack up. It may be a great engineering achievement, but where is the business model? Mobile video entertainment and communication services however certainly have a bright future - once the appropriate technology is in place.

In order to support all of the emerging mobile services, we are now seeing the development of more user-friendly and interactive mobile devices. In spite of this, overall sales of mobile handsets worldwide are expected to level out in 2008. This is due to saturation in the developed markets balancing out the booming growth we have observed in developing regions. Mobile handset suppliers continue to have an uphill battle to increase revenues in the face of declining handset prices. In 2008 Nokia retains its position as leader of this sector in terms of market share.

This report provides an insight and analysis into the trends and developments taking place in the mobile data and content sector. A global overview and analyses on the progress of mobile data is provided, as well as information on mobile data infrastructure. Statistics and forecasts on mobile content and services is included with a particular focus on messaging services, mobile TV/video, m-commerce/m-payments and telemetry including RFID, LBS and GPS. Information at a regional level for North America, Latin America, Europe, Middle East and Asia Pacific is also incorporated.

Key highlights:

In the wake of the popularity of HSDPA, currently over 25 HSUPA networks have been commercially launched in 20 countries around the world.
Today more than 40 mobile operators worldwide are developing mobile IM services for personal use and in late 2007 personal mobile IM became available in Asia.
In 2008 it is predicted over 2 trillion text messages will be sent worldwide and this number continues to grow.

Total mobile messaging revenues worldwide - 2007; 2008

Year Approximate SMS revenue
($ billion)
2007 55
2008 (e) 65-75
(Source: BuddeComm, 2008)

The USA is planning the most significant upgrade to its GPS system since its launch. GPS III satellites are expected to have 500 times the transmitter power of the current system. For more information, see chapter 7.1, page 81.
In 2008 mobile TV/video is commercially available in some markets and there will be further launches and trials taking place in all regions of the world.

The introduction of smaller and more flexible chipset modules will reduce the size of the RFID readers and bring overall costs down.

Operators around the world are contemplating and deploying IMS; a mobile platform that makes seamless communications possible between fixed and mobile networks. Initially attitudes towards IMS were overly positive, but the hype is now settling with operators taking a more realistic and cautious approach.

In 2008 around 70% of GPRS operators have committed to deploying EDGE in their networks worldwide.

The US mobile data sector continued to enjoy strong growth (at around 60%) in 2007.
Mobile operators in Eastern Europe are slowly focusing on mobile data, particularly in countries where prospects for revenue growth from saturated voice markets are slim and the number of deployed WCDMA/HSDPA networks is on the rise, a tribute to the technology's maturity and its dominance of the 3G technology market.

Content

1. An Overview and Analysis 2008 - Wireless Broadband The Key
- 1.1 Mbile data verview & analysis 2008
  - 1.1.1 Intrductin
  - 1.1.2 Service evlutin frm 3G t 4G
  - 1.1.3 Mbile data grwth
  - 1.1.4 Analysis f key develpments - 2008
- 1.2 Mbile cntent and ff-deck services
  - 1.2.1 Market analysis
  - 1.2.2 The market in 2008
  - 1.2.3 Key industry segments: statistics and frecasts
  - 1.2.4 Future predictins
  - 1.2.5 Mbile Digital Rights Management (MDRM)
2. Current Mbile Data Infrastructure (2G, 3G)
- 2.1 GPRS, Push-T-Talk, EDGE, HSCSD, i-mde
  - 2.1.1 Intrductin
  - 2.1.2 General Packet Radi Services (GPRS)
  - 2.1.3 High-Speed Circuit Switched Data (HSCSD)
  - 2.1.4 Enhanced Data fr GSM Evlutin (EDGE)
  - 2.1.5 i-mde
- 2.2 HSPA and IMS
  - 2.2.1 HSPA, HSDPA, HSUPA
  - 2.2.2 HSDPA develpments and deplyment
  - 2.2.3 HSUPA develpments and deplyment
  - 2.2.4 Will HSPA break thrugh int the bradband market
  - 2.2.5 Analysis - HSPA versus wireless bradband
  - 2.2.6 IP Multimedia systems (IMS)
  - 2.2.7 IMS develpment and deplyment
  - 2.2.8 Analysis: cmplex, ambitius yet prmising
3. Mbile Messaging Services
- 3.1 SMS, Instant Messaging, Unified Messaging, Multimedia Messaging Services & Email
  - 3.1.1 Shrt Messaging Service (SMS)
  - 3.1.2 Instant Messaging (IM)
  - 3.1.3 Multimedia Messaging Service (MMS)/Enhanced SMS (EMS)
  - 3.1.4 Unified Messaging (UN)
  - 3.1.5 Email/mbile email
  - 3.1.6 Unstructured Supplementary Service Data (USSD)
4. Mbile TV/Vide
- 4.1 Mbile TV and mbile vide media
  - 4.1.1 Mbile TV standard
  - 4.1.2 DVB-H fr Eurpe
  - 4.1.3 Mbile TV
  - 4.1.4 Analysis - fcus n vide media, nt TV
  - 4.1.5 Mbile TV arund the wrld
  - 4.1.6 Mbile TV statistics and frecasts
5. M-Cmmerce And M-Payments
- 5.1 Mbile Data - M-cmmerce & M-payments
  - 5.1.1 M-cmmerce analysis
  - 5.1.2 Mbile payments (M-payments)
  - 5.1.3 Mbile banking (M-banking)
  - 5.1.4 M-cmmerce milestnes
  - 5.1.5 Further published statistics and frecasts
  - 5.1.6 Industry cnsrtia
6. Telemetry & Radi Frequency Identificatin (RFID)
- 6.1 Telemetry
- 6.2 Telemetry in healthcare
  - 6.2.1 Redefining a medical cnsultatin
- 6.3 Remte mnitring
  - 6.3.1 Autmatic meter reading (AMR) using ZigBee
  - 6.3.2 ZigBee fr lighting cntrl
- 6.4 Near Field Cmmunicatins (NFC)
  - 6.4.1 Dedicated Shrt Range Cmmunicatins (DSRC)
- 6.5 Radi frequency identificatin (RFID)
  - 6.5.1 verview
  - 6.5.2 RFID tags
  - 6.5.3 Fragmented standards
  - 6.5.4 Spectrum allcatin
- 6.6 ther Autmatic Data Capture (ADC) technlgies
  - 6.6.1 Bar cdes
  - 6.6.2 Magnetic stripe systems
  - 6.6.3 Smartcards
  - 6.6.4 Mark sense and ptical Character Recgnitin (CR)
  - 6.6.5 Visin systems
  - 6.6.6 Vice recgnitin
  - 6.6.7 Magnetic ink character recgnitin (MICR)
- 6.7 Remte sensing satellites
- 6.8 Machine-t-machine transmissin
7. Navigatin, GPS, LBS
- 7.1 Glbal Navigatin Satellite Systems (GNSS)
  - 7.1.1 Prducts f the cld war
  - 7.1.2 Histry (pre-GPS)
  - 7.1.3 Gegraphic infrmatin services
  - 7.1.4 EutelTRACS
  - 7.1.5 Galile/EGNS
  - 7.1.6 Cmpass frm China
- 7.2 Lcatin-Based Services (LBS)
  - 7.2.1 Intrductin
  - 7.2.2 LBS - market verview
  - 7.2.3 Lcatin-based technlgies
  - 7.2.4 LBS applicatins
- 7.3 Glbal Psitining System (GPS)
  - 7.3.1 Intrductin
  - 7.3.2 Differential GPS
  - 7.3.3 GPS market verview
  - 7.3.4 GPS applicatins
8. Mbile Handsets
- 8.1 Mbile equipment - handsets
  - 8.1.1 Handset market grwth
  - 8.1.2 Mbile handset statistics and frecasts
  - 8.1.3 Statistics fr handsets with advanced functins
  - 8.1.4 Handset supplier market shares
  - 8.1.5 Trends and develpments
  - 8.1.6 Safety and security issues
9. Reginal verviews
- 9.1 Nrth America
  - 9.1.1 USA
  - 9.1.2 Canada
- 9.2 Latin America
  - 9.2.1 verview
  - 9.2.2 Messaging services
  - 9.2.3 GSM data service
  - 9.2.4 CDMA data service
  - 9.2.5 3G data services
  - 9.2.6 BlackBerry
- 9.3 Eurpe
  - 9.3.1 Western Eurpe
  - 9.3.2 Eastern Eurpe
- 9.4 Africa and the Middle East
  - 9.4.1 Africa
  - 9.4.2 Middle East
- 9.5 Asia
  - 9.5.1 verview
  - 9.5.2 China
  - 9.5.3 Hng Kng
  - 9.5.4 India
  - 9.5.5 Indnesia
  - 9.5.6 Japan
  - 9.5.7 Malaysia
  - 9.5.8 Philippines
  - 9.5.9 Singapre
  - 9.5.10 Suth Krea
  - 9.5.11 Taiwan
  - 9.5.12 Thailand
  - 9.5.13 Vietnam
- 9.6 Pacific regin
  - 9.6.1 Australia
  - 9.6.2 New Zealand
10. Glssary of Abbreviatins
Tables
- Table 1 - Nn-SMS mnthly mbile data ARPU (selected peratrs) - Q1 2007
- Table 2 - Estimated market share f key mbile services & cntent segments1 - 2008
- Table 3 - Reginal share f mbile entertainment revenues - 2006; 2011
- Table 4 - Wrldwide mbile adult cntent and services revenue - 2005 - 2006; 2008; 2010
- Table 5 - Wrldwide wagers spent n mbile gambling - 2007; 2012
- Table 6 - Wrldwide mbile gaming revenue - 2004; 2007; 2009; 2011
- Table 7 - Mbile gaming revenue - Asia Pacific, Western Eurpe, Nrth America - 2007; 2011
- Table 8 - Mbile game users - glbal mnthly averages - 2005; 2010
- Table 9 - Tp 10 mbile game publishers wrldwide by market share - May 2006
- Table 10 - Mbile Internet users in the US - 2007; 2012
- Table 11 - Asia Pacific mbile music revenues - 2005; 2010
- Table 12 - Nrth America full-track mbile music revenues - 2005; 2011
- Table 13 - Grwth f pht messaging in N America, France, UK - February - July 2006
- Table 14 - Wrldwide mbile sprts and inftainment revenue - 2007; 2011
- Table 15 - Estimated PTT subscribers wrldwide - 2006; 2008; 2012
- Table 16 - Number f GSM/EDGE netwrks in cmmercial service - 2007 - 2008
- Table 17 - i-mde subscribers in Japan and annual change - 2000 - 2006
- Table 18 - Mbile Internet services, standards and subscribers by prviders in Japan - May 2007
- Table 19 - Number f cuntries with HSDPA netwrk cmmitments by regin - Nvember 2007
- Table 20 - Estimated number f SMS text messages sent wrldwide - 2005 - 2012
- Table 21 - Ttal mbile messaging revenue wrldwide - 2007; 2008
- Table 22 - Wrldwide Instant Messaging revenues (all segments) - 2007; 2011
- Table 23 - Wrldwide unified cmmunicatin prducts and service market value - 2007; 2012
- Table 24 - Number f email users wrldwide - 2008; 2011
- Table 25 - Number f emails sent each day wrldwide - 2007; 2011
- Table 26 - Mbile vide subscribers versus bradcast mbile TV subscribers - 2011
- Table 27 - Cmparisn f analysts' bradcast mbile TV subscriber frecasts - 2007 - 2012
- Table 28 - Tp 3 mbile bradcast TV markets - 2012
- Table 29 - Mbile vide revenue versus bradcast mbile TV revenue - 2006; 2008; 2011
- Table 30 - Mbile banking users in the USA - 2007; 2011
- Table 31 - Frecast f number f reginal mbile users purchasing retail gds via mbile - 2010
- Table 32 - Market value and CAGR f telehealth - 2012
- Table 33 - Wrldwide LBS subscribers - 2011
- Table 34 - Wrldwide market share f mbile phnes equipped with GPS - 2006 - 2009
- Table 35 - Wrldwide mbile handset sales - 2004 - 2008
- Table 36 - Mbile handset revenue wrldwide* - 2002 - 2005; 2012
- Table 37 - Handset supplier market share - tp 3 suppliers - Q3 2007
- Table 38 - Handset suppliers' market shares - 1999 - 2005; 2007
- Table 39 - Mnthly vice, nn-vice, ttal mbile ARPUs in Western Eurpe - 2006; 2012
- Table 40 - SMS messaging revenue and frecasts - 2006 - 2008
- Table 41 - Dearest 11 Eurpean cuntries; raming charges per MB - Q3 2007
- Table 42 - Eurpean mbile gaming market value - 2005 - 2007; 2009; 2012
- Table 43 - Cmbined GPRS/EDGE/UMTS mbile data subscribers in Lithuania - 2004 - 2007
- Table 44 - China Mbile and China Unicm CDMA 1x mbile VAS revenue - 2006
- Table 45 - Grwth f text messages (SMS) in China - 2000 - 2006
- Table 46 - CNNIC WAP usage reprt - March 2007
- Table 47 - 2.5G and 3G subscriber grwth in Hng Kng - 2002 - 2007
- Table 48 - Mnthly SMS vlume in Hng Kng - 2002 - 2007
- Table 49 - Hng Kng SMS statistics fr special dates (000s) - 2005 - 2007
- Table 50 - Telkmsel SMS usage and annual change - September 2005
- Table 51 - Mbile wireless Internet subscribers in Japan - 2000 - 2007
- Table 52 - Ttal SMS messages per mnth in Singapre - 2004 - 2007
- Table 53 - GPRS subscribers in Taiwan - 2001 - 2006
- Table 54 - SMS message vlume and revenue in Taiwan - 2001 - 2006
- Table 55 - SMS grwth frecasts fr Australia - 2003 - 2010
- Table 56 - Grwth in Telstra SMS messages - 2001 - 2007
- Exhibit 1 - Definitin: Persnal Wireless Bradband
- Exhibit 2 - Ranking f key mbile services & cntent segments by market share - 2008
- Exhibit 3 - Why mbile marketing wn't wrk
- Exhibit 4 - Summary f market
- Exhibit 5 - Definitin: ff-deck
- Exhibit 6 - Mbile adult service example: Cherrysauce
- Exhibit 7 - Key m-gambling market segments - 2007
- Exhibit 8 - Tp 3 mbile games wrldwide - 2006
- Exhibit 9 - Mbile UGC service example: Mk
- Exhibit 10 - Theretical and realistic speeds GPRS, EDGE and UMTS (kb/s)
- Exhibit 11 - Examples f majr WCDMA/EDGE peratrs
- Exhibit 12 - HSPA, HSDPA, HSUPA
- Exhibit 13 - Cuntries/territries where HSDPA is cmmercially available - Nvember 2007
- Exhibit 14 - Examples f selected peratrs deplying HSUPA - 2007 - 2008
- Exhibit 15 - What is IMS
- Exhibit 16 - Grwth inhibitrs fr IMS
- Exhibit 17 - Examples f selected peratrs deplying r trialing IMS - 2007 - 2008
- Exhibit 18 - Vendrs invlved in GMI 2006
- Exhibit 19 - IMS in cntext with NGN, FttH
- Exhibit 20 - Definitin: Premium SMS
- Exhibit 21 - Key benefits f USSD
- Exhibit 22 - Mbile TV - Unicast and MBMS
- Exhibit 23 - Mbile TV develpments - brief reginal verview
- Exhibit 24 - Definitin: Near Field Cmmunicatins (NFC)
- Exhibit 25 - Examples f NFC applicatins
- Exhibit 26 - Milestnes in m-cmmerce
- Exhibit 27 - Examples f telemetry applicatins
- Exhibit 28 - Telemetry healthcare applicatin examples
- Exhibit 29 - Definitin: Near Field Cmmunicatins (NFC)
- Exhibit 30 - Examples f NFC applicatins
- Exhibit 31 - RFID and NFC transprt applicatins
- Exhibit 32 - Item-level RFID use
- Exhibit 33 - RFID spectrum frequencies and applicatin examples
- Exhibit 34 - Machine-t-Machine service evlutin visin
- Exhibit 35 - Examples f LBS services n mbile phnes
- Exhibit 36 - Assisted GPS (A-GPS)
- Exhibit 37 - LBS applicatins by market divisin
- Exhibit 38 - GPS applicatins and industry use
- Exhibit 39 - Examples f recent data service launches in the USA