2Q08 Global Mobile Forecast, 2008 - 2010

Publication Date	April 2008
Publisher	IE Market Research
Product Type	Report
Pages
ISBN Number	not applicable
Product Code	IEM00460

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Summary

IEMR's Globally Aggregated Mobile Forecast provides over 65 operational and financial metrics for wireless markets across the world. We cover quarterly historical data starting in 4Q2003 and ending in 4Q2007. We also provide four-year forecasts at the operator level going out to 2010. Our Global Aggregation contains separate data for 53 countries and their mobile operators (213 operators in total). Our Mobile Forecasts are updated quarterly and are available for one-time delivery or through regular updates.

Through IEMR's custom-designed spreadsheets you can select specific metrics and customize the results based on country, region and/or operator. The operator data table can also be used for instant access to operators by Country, Region, or all together. A set of charts will also be created automatically based on your selections for the first 6 data entries of each table. This allows for quick access to desired data, saving the time typically wasted scrolling through the data and allowing for comparisons across countries and operators. This regional forecast also has the added function of charting all 65 operational and financial metrics for a single country simply by selecting it from a drop down menu.

Some interesting facts of the 2Q08 Mobile Forecast include:

Trends in Wireless Markets:

THE MOST PENETRATED MARKET IN THE WORLD (ITALY): The most highly penetrated market in our coverage list in 2010 will be Greece with a wireless penetration level of 173.2%.
THE LARGEST WIRELESS MARKET IN THE WORLD (CHINA): The largest wireless telecom market in the world (by subscribers) in 2010 will continue to be China. Given the continued success of Chinese mobile operators in executing their business models, we are now forecasting that by 2010, China will have 824 million subscribers (up significantly from our previous forecast of 738 million subscribers by 2010).
THE FASTEST GROWING WIRELESS MARKET IN THE WORLD (INDIA): We continue to believe that fastest growing wireless market in the world from 2008 - 2010 by subscribers will be India. We have revised up our forecast for subscriber growth in the India market to 32% average annual growth. The number of subscribers will increase from our projected 329.1 million in 2008 to 527.4 million in 2010. India will replace the United States as the second largest wireless market in the world after China sometime in 2008.
THE MARKET WHERE CONSUMERS PAY THE MOST FOR WIRELESS SERVICES (NORWAY): In 2010, the market where consumers pay the most for their mobile services (as measured by Average Revenue per User, ARPU) will be Norway with US$ 61.85 per user (previously we were forecasting ARPU in Norway at US$ 63.51). Pure duopoly of Telenor Mobil and Netcom (TeliaSonera) will continue to allow for the high levels of ARPU in Norway.
THE MARKET WHERE CONSUMERS PAY THE LEAST FOR WIRELESS SERVICES (PAKISTAN): We continue to expect Pakistan to have the lowest ARPU levels in our coverage list. Operator-wide ARPU levels in Pakistan are expected to reach US$ 2.96 in 2008 and fall to US$ 2.90 in 2010.
THE MARKET WHERE CONSUMERS CAN EXPECT TO SEE THE BIGGEST INCREASE IN WIRELESS SERVICE CHARGES (RUSSIA): Within our coverage list, we continue to expect Russia to see the highest level of ARPU increase. Between 2008 and 2010, consumers in Russia can be expected to pay 43% more for their wireless services, mostly due ongoing consolidation in Russia's wireless sector.

Operator Highlights:

THE FASTEST GROWING OPERATOR IN THE WORLD (NILE TELECOM IN EGYPT): Our model is now forecasting that Nile Telecom in Egypt will see the highest level of subscriber growth among the 213 operators in our coverage list. Subscriber levels will rise by 127.3% between 2008 and 2010 for Nile Telecom to reach about 9.1 million subscribers in 2010.
THE OPERATOR THAT WILL ADD THE MOST SUBSCRIBERS (CHINA MOBILE): The world's largest operator will also add the most number of subscribers. We are forecasting that China Mobile will add 138 million wireless subscribers in the next three years. On average, this means that China Mobile will add 3.8 million subscribers each month. Bharti-Airtel of India will add the second largest number of subscribers, about 48.7 million over the next three years.
THE OPERATOR WHICH WILL CHARGE ITS CUSTOMERS THE MOST IN THE WORLD (NEXTEL INTERNATIONAL IN MEXICO): In 2010, the operator which will bill its customers at the highest level in our coverage list will be Nextel International in Mexico with an ARPU of US$ 65.38 per month in 2010.
THE OPERATOR WHICH WILL CHARGE ITS CUSTOMERS THE LEAST IN THE WORLD (WARID IN PAKISTAN): In 2010, the operator which will bill its customers at the lowest rate in our coverage list will be Warid Telecom in Pakistan with an ARPU of only US$ 1.98 per month in 2010.
THE MOST PROFITABLE OPERATOR IN THE WORLD IN 2010 (TELKOMSEL IN INDONESIA): Within our coverage list, we are expecting Telkomsel in Indonesia to be the most profitable operator in the world. On average, we are expecting EBITDA margins at Telkomsel to be 68% in 2010.

Content

Countries and Operators Covered in This Global Mobile Forecast
- Algeria: Djezzy, Mobilis, Nedjma (Wataniya)
- Argentina: Cti (Amx), Movicom (Bls), Movistar Argentina (Tef), Nextel, Telecom Argentina (Ti)
- Australia: Hutchison, Optus, Telstra, Vodafone
- Austria: Connect Austria, Drei, Mobilkom (Telekom Austria), T-Mobile
- Bangladesh: Bangalink/Sheba (Orascom Tel), Bttb, Grameenphone (Telenor), Pbtl (Singtel), Tm Int'l (Telekom Malaysia), Warid
- Belgium: Base, Mobistar (Orange), Proximus
- Brazil: Claro Brazil (Amx), Oi (Tele Norte Leste), Others (Brazil), Tim Brazil (Ti), Vivo (Pt/Telefonical)
- Canada: Bell Mobility, Mts, Other Bell Affiliates, Rogers Wireless (Incl. Microcell), Telus Mobility
- Chile: Bellsouth (Chl), Claro Chile (Amx), Entel Chile, Movistar Chile (Tef), Others (Chile)
- China: China Mobile, China Unicom, Unlisted and Other Adjustments
- Colombia: Comcel (Amx, Movistar Colombia (Tef), Tigo Colombia (Micc)
- Czech: Telefonica O2 Cz, T-Mobile, Vodafone
- Denmark: 3 (Hutchison), Orange, Sonofon (Telenor), Tdc Mobil (Denmark), Telia
- Egypt: Ecms (Mobinil), Nile Telecom (Etisalat), Vodafone
- Finland: DNA, Elisa, Sonera, Telia
- France: Bouygues, Orange, Sfr (Vodafone)
- Germany: D2 (Vodafone), E-plus, T-Mobile, O2
- Greece: Cosmote, Q-Telecom, Tim Hellas, Vodafone Panafon
- Hong Kong: Csl/New World, Hutchison, New World, People, Smartone, Sunday
- Hungary: Pannon (Telenor), T-Mobile, Vodafone
- India: Bharti-Airtel, Bsnl, Hutchison, Others (India), Rcom
- Indonesia: Excelcomindo, Satelindo + Im3, Starone, Telkom Flexi, Telkomsel
- Iraq: Asiacell (Wataniya), Atheer Tel (Mtc), Iraqna (Orascom Tel)
- Ireland: Meteor, O2, Vodafone
- Israel: Cellcom, Mirs, Partner, Pelephone
- Italy: 3 (Hutchison), Blu, Opi Vodafone, Tim, Wind
- Japan: Kddi (Au), Kddi (Tu-Ka), Ntt Docomo, Ntt Docomo (PHS), Softbank Mobile, Willcom (PHS)
- Malaysia: Celcom, DigI.Com, Maxis
- Mexico: Iusacell, Movistar Mexico (Tef), Nextel Intl, Telcel (Amx), Unefon
- Morocco: Maroc Telecom, Medi Tel, Wana
- Netherlands: Ben (T-Mobile), Dutchtone (Orange), Kpn Mobile, Telfort, Vodafone
- New Zealand: Tcnz, Vodafone
- Nigeria: Globacom, Mtc, Mtn, Nitel
- Norway: Netcom (Teliasonera), Telenor Mobil
- Pakistan: Instaphone, Mobilink, Paktel, Telenor, Ufone, Warid Telecom
- Peru: Bellsouth, Claro Per (Amx), Movistar Per (Tef), Nextel
- Philippines: Digitel (Rough Estimates Only), Globe, Pldt
- Poland: Polkomtel, Ptc (T-Mobile), Ptk Centertel (Tp Sa)
- Portugal: Optimus, Telecel Vodafone, Tmn
- Russia: Megafon, Mts, Others (Russia), Vimpelcom
- Singapore: Mobile One, Singtel, Starhub
- South Africa: Cell C, Mtn (M-Cell), Virgin Mobile, Vodacom
- South Korea: Ktf, Lg Telecom, Sk Telecom
- Spain: Orange, Telefonica Moviles, Vodafone, Xfera
- Sweden: 3 (Hutchison), Tele 2, Telenor, Telia
- Switzerland: Orange, Sunrise/Tdc Switzerland, Swisscom
- Taiwan: Apbw, Chunghwa Telecom, Far Eastone, Fitel, Taiwan Cellular Corp, Vibo
- Thailand: Advanced Info Service, Hutchison, Others (Thailand), Ta Orange, Total Access Communication
- Turkey: Avea (Turk Telekom), Turkcell, Vodafone
- Ukraine: Astelit, Golden, Kyivstar, Umc, Urs (Vimpelcom)
- United Kingdom: 3 (Hutchison), O2, Orange, T-Mobile (One2one), Vodafone
- United States: at&t Wireless, Cingular Wireless, Nextel, Sprint, T-Mobile USA, Verizon Wireless
- Venezuela: Digitel Movilnet (Cantv), Movistar Venezuela (Tef), Others (Infonet and Digicel)
Charts 1-68 Results & Forecasts for: Cy04-Cy10
- Chart 1: Prepaid and Postpaid Subscribers
- Chart 2: Subscriber Growth (Yoy)
- Chart 3: Subscribers by Operator
- Chart 4: Subscriber Growth by Operator (Yoy)
- Chart 5: Net Subscriber Adds by Operator
- Chart 6: Net Subscriber Adds Growth by Operator
- Chart 7: Monthly Churn by Operator
- Chart 8: Post-Paid Subscribers by Operator
- Chart 9: Post-Paid Subscriber Growth by Operator (Yoy)
- Chart 10: Prepaid/Wholesale Subscribers by Operator
- Chart 11: Prepaid/Wholesale Subscriber Growth by Operator
- Chart 12: Post-Paid % of Total Subscribers by Operator
- Chart 13: Prepaid/Wholesale % of Total Subscribers by Operator
- Chart 14: Post-Paid Net Adds by Operator
- Chart 15: Post-Paid Adds Growth by Operator (Yoy)
- Chart 16: Prepaid/Wholesale Net Adds by Operator
- Chart 17: Prepaid/Wholesale Adds Growth by Operator
- Chart 18: Gross Additions by Operator
- Chart 19: Gross Additions Growth by Operator (Yoy)
- Chart 20: Monthly Arpu by Operator
- Chart 21: Monthly Arpu Growth by Operator (Yoy %)
- Chart 22: Data % of Service Revenues by Operator
- Chart 23: Monthly Data Arpu by Operator
- Chart 24: Data Arpu Growth by Operator (Yoy)
- Chart 25: Monthly Voice Arpu by Operator
- Chart 26: Voice Arpu Growth by Operator (Yoy)
- Chart 27: Voice Revenue per Minute by Operator
- Chart 28: Voice Revenue per Minute Growth by Operator (Yoy)
- Chart 29: Mou per Subscriber by Operator (Minutes/Month)
- Chart 30: Mou/Subscriber Growth by Operator (Yoy %)
- Chart 31: Aggregate Mou by Operator
- Chart 32: Aggregate Mou Growth by Operator (Yoy %)
- Chart 33: Share of Total Subscribers by Operator
- Chart 34: Hhi Index by Subscriber Share
- Chart 35: Share of Net Adds by Operator
- Chart 36: Share of Post-Paid Net Adds by Operator
- Chart 37: Share of Prepaid/Wholesale Net Adds by Operator
- Chart 38: Share of Gross Adds by Operator
- Chart 39: Share of Service Revenue by Operator
- Chart 40: Hhi Index by Service Revenue Share
- Chart 41: Yoy Change in Revenue Share by Operator
- Chart 42: Reported Revenue by Operator (Reporting Currency)
- Chart 43: Service Revenue by Operator (Reporting Currency)
- Chart 44: Ebitda by Operator (Reporting Currency)
- Chart 45: Capex by Operator (Reporting Currency)
- Chart 46: Service Revenue Growth by Operator (Yoy)
- Chart 47: Ebitda Growth by Operator (Yoy)
- Chart 48: Ebitda/Reported Revenue by Operator
- Chart 49: Ebitda/Service Revenue by Operator
- Chart 50: Ebitda/Incremental Service Revenue by Operator
- Chart 51: Capex/Reported Revenue by Operator
- Chart 52: Capex/Service Revenue by Operator
- Chart 53: (Ebitda-Capex)/Reported Revenue by Operator
- Chart 54: Ebitda Margin Expansion/Contraction by Operator
- Chart 55: Reported Revenue by Operator (USD)
- Chart 56: Arpu by Operator (USD)
- Chart 57: Data Arpu by Operator (USD)
- Chart 58: Voice Rev/Minute by Operator (USD)
- Chart 59: Service Revenue by Operator (USD)
- Chart 60: Ebitda by Operator (USD)
- Chart 61: Capex by Operator (USD)
- Chart 62: Reported Revenue by Operator (Eur)
- Chart 63: Arpu by Operator (Eur)
- Chart 64: Data Arpu by Operator (Eur)
- Chart 65: Voice Revenue/Minute by Operator (Eur)
- Chart 66: Service Revenue by Operator (Eur)
- Chart 67: Ebitda by Operator (Eur)
- Chart 68: Capex by Operator (Eur)
Charts 69-136 Quarterly Results for: Dec 04 - Dec 07
- Chart 69: Prepaid and Postpaid Subscribers
- Chart 70: Subscriber Growth (Yoy)
- Chart 71: Subscribers by Operator
- Chart 72: Subscriber Growth by Operator (Yoy)
- Chart 73: Net Subscriber Adds by Operator
- Chart 74: Net Subscriber Adds Growth by Operator
- Chart 75: Monthly Churn by Operator
- Chart 76: Post-Paid Subscribers by Operator
- Chart 77: Post-Paid Subscriber Growth by Operator (Yoy)
- Chart 78: Prepaid/Wholesale Subscribers by Operator
- Chart 79: Prepaid/Wholesale Subscriber Growth by Operator
- Chart 80: Post-Paid % of Total Subscribers by Operator
- Chart 81: Prepaid/Wholesale % of Total Subscribers by Operator
- Chart 82: Post-Paid Net Adds by Operator
- Chart 83: Post-Paid Adds Growth by Operator (Yoy)
- Chart 84: Prepaid/Wholesale Net Adds by Operator
- Chart 85: Prepaid/Wholesale Adds Growth by Operator
- Chart 86: Gross Additions by Operator
- Chart 87: Gross Additions Growth by Operator (Yoy)
- Chart 88: Monthly Arpu by Operator
- Chart 89: Monthly Arpu Growth by Operator (Yoy %)
- Chart 90: Data % of Service Revenues by Operator
- Chart 91: Monthly Data Arpu by Operator
- Chart 92: Data Arpu Growth by Operator (Yoy)
- Chart 93: Monthly Voice Arpu by Operator
- Chart 94: Voice Arpu Growth by Operator (Yoy)
- Chart 95: Voice Revenue per Minute by Operator
- Chart 96: Voice Revenue per Minute Growth by Operator (Yoy)
- Chart 97: Mou per Subscriber by Operator (Minutes/Month)
- Chart 98: Mou/Subscriber Growth by Operator (Yoy %)
- Chart 99: Aggregate Mou by Operator
- Chart 100: Aggregate Mou Growth by Operator (Yoy %)
- Chart 101: Share of Total Subscribers by Operator
- Chart 102: Hhi Index by Subscriber Share
- Chart 103: Share of Net Adds by Operator
- Chart 104: Share of Post-Paid Net Adds by Operator
- Chart 105: Share of Prepaid/Wholesale Net Adds by Operator
- Chart 106: Share of Gross Adds by Operator
- Chart 107: Share Service Revenue by Operator
- Chart 108: Hhi Index by Service Revenue Share
- Chart 109: Yoy Change in Revenue Share by Operator
- Chart 110: Reported Revenue by Operator (Reporting Currency)
- Chart 111: Service Revenue by Operator (Reporting Currency)
- Chart 112: Ebitda by Operator (Reporting Currency)
- Chart 113: Capex by Operator (Reporting Currency)
- Chart 114: Service Revenue Growth by Operator (Yoy)
- Chart 115: Ebitda Growth by Operator (Yoy)
- Chart 116: Ebitda/Reported Revenue by Operator
- Chart 117: Ebitda/Service Revenue by Operator
- Chart 118: Ebitda/Incremental Service Revenue by Operator
- Chart 119: Capex/Reported Revenue by Operator
- Chart 120: Capex/Service Revenue by Operator
- Chart 121: (Ebitda-Capex)/Reported Revenue by Operator
- Chart 122: Ebitda Margin Expansion/Contraction by Operator
- Chart 123: Reported Revenue by Operator (USD)
- Chart 124: Arpu by Operator (USD)
- Chart 125: Data Arpu by Operator (USD)
- Chart 126: Voice Rev/Minute by Operator (USD)
- Chart 127: Service Revenue by Operator (USD)
- Chart 128: Ebitda by Operator (USD)
- Chart 129: Capex by Operator (USD)
- Chart 130: Reported Revenue by Operator (Eur)
- Chart 131: Arpu by Operator (Eur)
- Chart 132: Data Arpu by Operator (Eur)
- Chart 133: Voice Revenue/Minute by Operator (Eur)
- Chart 134: Service Revenue by Operator (Eur)
- Chart 135: Ebitda by Operator (Eur)
- Chart 136: Capex by Operator (Eur)