3Q08 South Korea Mobile Forecast, 2008 2010

The Hypercompetitive South Korea Mobile Operator Space Got a Little More Competitive

Publication Date	July 2008
Publisher	IE Market Research
Product Type	Report
Pages	NA
ISBN Number	not applicable
Product Code	IEM00518

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Summary

Because of the nature of this report page numbers are not available

IEMR's Mobile Forecast on South Korea provides over 65 operational and financial metrics for the South Korea wireless market. We cover quarterly historical data starting in 1Q2004 and ending in 1Q2008. We also provide four-year forecasts at the operator level going out to 2010. Operators covered for South Korea include: SK Telecom, KTF, and LG Telecom. Our Mobile Forecasts are updated quarterly and are available for one-time delivery or through regular updates.

Notable highlights of the 3Q08 South Korea Mobile Forecast include:

The wireless market in South Korea will continue to expand in the coming years. We forecast that the number of total subscribers will increase from 43.5 million in 2007 to our forecasted 48.4 million in 2010 (previously 46.9 million in 2010).
The level of wireless penetration in South Korea will increase from 89.8% in 2007 to 99.2% in 2010 (previously 94.7% in 2010).
The three operators - SK Telecom, KTF and LG Telecom - will continue to show relatively stable subscriber market shares at 50.3%, 31.5% and 18.2% respectively over the forecast period of 2008 - 2010.
SK Telecom will continue to enjoy the lowest monthly churn among the three competitors in 2010 at around 1.6% (previously 2.3%). In 2010, SK Telecom will also receive the highest ARPU in the country at US$ 42.97 (previously US$ 46.91).
Given the declines in ARPUs, we have lowered our EBITDA margin forecasts across the board for all South Korean Operators. We are still forecasting that SK Telecom, the largest operator, will have the highest EBITDA margins at 36.6% (previously 38.8%).

Content

Companies Covered in this Country Mobile Forecast
SK Telecom
KTF
LG Telecom
- Charts 1-68 Results & Forecasts for: CY04-CY10
- Chart 1: PREPAID AND POSTPAID SUBSCRIBERS
- Chart 2: SUBSCRIBER GROWTH (YoY)
- Chart 3: SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR
- Chart 4: SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
- Chart 5: NET SUBSCRIBER ADDS BY OPERATOR
- Chart 6: NET SUBSCRIBER ADDS GROWTH BY OPERATOR
- Chart 7: MONTHLY CHURN BY OPERATOR
- Chart 8: POST-PAID SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR
- Chart 9: POST-PAID SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
- Chart 10: PREPAID/WHOLESALE SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR
- Chart 11: PREPAID/WHOLESALE SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR
- Chart 12: POST-PAID % OF TOTAL SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR
- Chart 13: PREPAID/WHOLESALE % OF TOTAL SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR
- Chart 14: POST-PAID NET ADDS BY OPERATOR
- Chart 15: POST-PAID ADDS GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
- Chart 16: PREPAID/WHOLESALE NET ADDS BY OPERATOR
- Chart 17: PREPAID/WHOLESALE ADDS GROWTH BY OPERATOR
- Chart 18: GROSS ADDITIONS BY OPERATOR
- Chart 19: GROSS ADDITIONS GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
- Chart 20: MONTHLY ARPU BY OPERATOR
- Chart 21: MONTHLY ARPU GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY %)
- Chart 22: DATA % OF SERVICE REVENUES BY OPERATOR
- Chart 23: MONTHLY DATA ARPU BY OPERATOR
- Chart 24: DATA ARPU GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
- Chart 25: MONTHLY VOICE ARPU BY OPERATOR
- Chart 26: VOICE ARPU GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
- Chart 27: VOICE REVENUE PER MINUTE BY OPERATOR
- Chart 28: VOICE REVENUE PER MINUTE GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
- Chart 29: MOU PER SUBSCRIBER BY OPERATOR (MINUTES/MONTH)
- Chart 30: MOU/SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY %)
- Chart 31: AGGREGATE MOU BY OPERATOR
- Chart 32: AGGREGATE MOU GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY %)
- Chart 33: SHARE OF TOTAL SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR
- Chart 34: HHI INDEX BY SUBSCRIBER SHARE
- Chart 35: SHARE OF NET ADDS BY OPERATOR
- Chart 36: SHARE OF POST-PAID NET ADDS BY OPERATOR
- Chart 37: SHARE OF PREPAID/WHOLESALE NET ADDS BY OPERATOR
- Chart 38: SHARE OF GROSS ADDS BY OPERATOR
- Chart 39: SHARE OF SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR
- Chart 40: HHI INDEX BY SERVICE REVENUE SHARE
- Chart 41: YoY CHANGE IN REVENUE SHARE BY OPERATOR
- Chart 42: REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY)
- Chart 43: SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY)
- Chart 44: EBITDA BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY)
- Chart 45: CAPEX BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY)
- Chart 46: SERVICE REVENUE GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
- Chart 47: EBITDA GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
- Chart 48: EBITDA/REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR
- Chart 49: EBITDA/SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR
- Chart 50: EBITDA/INCREMENTAL SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR
- Chart 51: CAPEX/REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR
- Chart 52: CAPEX/SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR
- Chart 53: (EBITDA-CAPEX)/REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR
- Chart 54: EBITDA MARGIN EXPANSION/CONTRACTION BY OPERATOR
- Chart 55: REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR (USD)
- Chart 56: ARPU BY OPERATOR (USD)
- Chart 57: DATA ARPU BY OPERATOR (USD)
- Chart 58: VOICE REV/MINUTE BY OPERATOR (USD)
- Chart 59: SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR (USD)
- Chart 60: EBITDA BY OPERATOR (USD)
- Chart 61: CAPEX BY OPERATOR (USD)
- Chart 62: REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR (EUR)
- Chart 63: ARPU BY OPERATOR (EUR)
- Chart 64: DATA ARPU BY OPERATOR (EUR)
- Chart 65: VOICE REVENUE/MINUTE BY OPERATOR (EUR)
- Chart 66: SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR (EUR)
- Chart 67: EBITDA BY OPERATOR (EUR)
- Chart 68: CAPEX BY OPERATOR (EUR)
- Charts 69-136 Quarterly Results for: Mar 05 - Mar 08
- Chart 69: PREPAID AND POSTPAID SUBSCRIBERS
- Chart 70: SUBSCRIBER GROWTH (YoY)
- Chart 71: SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR
- Chart 72: SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
- Chart 73: NET SUBSCRIBER ADDS BY OPERATOR
- Chart 74: NET SUBSCRIBER ADDS GROWTH BY OPERATOR
- Chart 75: MONTHLY CHURN BY OPERATOR
- Chart 76: POST-PAID SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR
- Chart 77: POST-PAID SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
- Chart 78: PREPAID/WHOLESALE SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR
- Chart 79: PREPAID/WHOLESALE SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR
- Chart 80: POST-PAID % OF TOTAL SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR
- Chart 81: PREPAID/WHOLESALE % OF TOTAL SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR
- Chart 82: POST-PAID NET ADDS BY OPERATOR
- Chart 83: POST-PAID ADDS GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
- Chart 84: PREPAID/WHOLESALE NET ADDS BY OPERATOR
- Chart 85: PREPAID/WHOLESALE ADDS GROWTH BY OPERATOR
- Chart 86: GROSS ADDITIONS BY OPERATOR
- Chart 87: GROSS ADDITIONS GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
- Chart 88: MONTHLY ARPU BY OPERATOR
- Chart 89: MONTHLY ARPU GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY %)
- Chart 90: DATA % OF SERVICE REVENUES BY OPERATOR
- Chart 91: MONTHLY DATA ARPU BY OPERATOR
- Chart 92: DATA ARPU GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
- Chart 93: MONTHLY VOICE ARPU BY OPERATOR
- Chart 94: VOICE ARPU GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
- Chart 95: VOICE REVENUE PER MINUTE BY OPERATOR
- Chart 96: VOICE REVENUE PER MINUTE GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
- Chart 97: MOU PER SUBSCRIBER BY OPERATOR (MINUTES/MONTH)
- Chart 98: MOU/SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY %)
- Chart 99: AGGREGATE MOU BY OPERATOR
- Chart 100: AGGREGATE MOU GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY %)
- Chart 101: SHARE OF TOTAL SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR
- Chart 102: HHI INDEX BY SUBSCRIBER SHARE
- Chart 103: SHARE OF NET ADDS BY OPERATOR
- Chart 104: SHARE OF POST-PAID NET ADDS BY OPERATOR
- Chart 105: SHARE OF PREPAID/WHOLESALE NET ADDS BY OPERATOR
- Chart 106: SHARE OF GROSS ADDS BY OPERATOR
- Chart 107: SHARE SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR
- Chart 108: HHI INDEX BY SERVICE REVENUE SHARE
- Chart 109: YoY CHANGE IN REVENUE SHARE BY OPERATOR
- Chart 110: REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY)
- Chart 111: SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY)
- Chart 112: EBITDA BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY)
- Chart 113: CAPEX BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY)
- Chart 114: SERVICE REVENUE GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
- Chart 115: EBITDA GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
- Chart 116: EBITDA/REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR
- Chart 117: EBITDA/SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR
- Chart 118: EBITDA/INCREMENTAL SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR
- Chart 119: CAPEX/REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR
- Chart 120: CAPEX/SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR
- Chart 121: (EBITDA-CAPEX)/REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR
- Chart 122: EBITDA MARGIN EXPANSION/CONTRACTION BY OPERATOR
- Chart 123: REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR (USD)
- Chart 124: ARPU BY OPERATOR (USD)
- Chart 125: DATA ARPU BY OPERATOR (USD)
- Chart 126: VOICE REV/MINUTE BY OPERATOR (USD)
- Chart 127: SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR (USD)
- Chart 128: EBITDA BY OPERATOR (USD)
- Chart 129: CAPEX BY OPERATOR (USD)
- Chart 130: REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR (EUR)
- Chart 131: ARPU BY OPERATOR (EUR)
- Chart 132: DATA ARPU BY OPERATOR (EUR)
- Chart 133: VOICE REVENUE/MINUTE BY OPERATOR (EUR)
- Chart 134: SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR (EUR)
- Chart 135: EBITDA BY OPERATOR (EUR)
- Chart 136: CAPEX BY OPERATOR (EUR)