BuddeComm Mobile Series

Competition continues to increase in the mobile market and mobile subscribers have more than doubled in the last five years or so. As more participants enter this market, and the convergence of fixed and mobile continues, this competitive pressure will escalate.

With competition in the telecommunications market also opening up because of a regulatory emphasis on deregulation and competition - the difficulty and expense of deploying new fixed networks is being realised. It is therefore obvious that new telcos are looking for opportunities to enter the market through a wireless solution.For the time being, the mobile industry will continue to revolve around voice services. The industry can still capture more of the voice market from the fixed networks, as the mobile phone is by far the preferred telephone choice for most consumers, and many countries now have more mobile than fixed telephone subscribers.

The emerging markets are also beginning to make their mark on the mobile sector, with many of the less mature regions around the world showing significant growth. This has slightly lifted the worldwide overall growth rate for the industry, and many markets, such as Asia Pacific, still have room for more growth ahead.

However, despite signs of growth, most of the worldwide market has experienced a decline in voice ARPU - with an overall drop of more than 10% in the past twelve months. Call charges on average are also dropping by around 15-20% per annum around the world. As would be expected, it is the markets with strong competition which have seen the most considerable drops in mobile call charges.

The mobile data and content market presents one of the key opportunities for mobile operators to create new revenue streams.

By 2015 the mobile content market could be worth well in excess of $1 trillion, with voice comprising only a 10% share of the market - if the industry gets it right. However many mobile operators are still not opening up their networks for mobile content; one of the main reasons being that the current mobile technologies are not well-suited for the delivery of what the market calls 'rich experience' content (multimedia, video, etc). So for now mobile data traffic will continue to comprise mostly SMS, followed by ringtones and a small proportion of everything else. The focus of the mobile operators will also remain on protecting their lucrative voice business for the time being.

The initial potential of wireless broadband has been witnessed with WiFi spreading like wildfire throughout the world. It is predicted that there will be over 300,000 hotspots worldwide by the end of 2009. Its key feature is that it provides portable broadband access, and WiFi is now widely available in laptops and other hand-held devices.

However all roads for the future point to 4G as the end result. It will be a slow transition as there is a lack of real competition in the mobile industry; from contenders such as WiMAX. 3G will be with us longer than first predicted, but we should see 4G coming on the scene some time after 2010. A sign that 4G is the future was reinforced when five of the world's largest cellular network operators formed an organisation to prepare for fourth generation wireless networks.

For those with a need for more detailed technical information, the BuddeComm Mobile Series provides analysis, statistics, forecasts and trends on the mobile industry, including a brief overview of regional developments.

The series begins by describing historic mobile technologies such as1G and early digital technologies AMPS, IS-136 TDMA and IS-95 CDMA. Also discussed is the Japanese FOMA WCDMA system, which was the basis for UMTS WCDMA, and CDMA2000 and its high speed data enhancement EV-DO (Evolution Data Only) which are the dominant 3G technologies in North America and many other non-European countries. Tutorials are provided on convolutional coding and the spreading and scrambling processes which are at the heart of Code Division Multiple Access (CDMA) spread-spectrum techniques.

Mobile services are discussed which operate similarly or identically over all 2.5G and 3G networks, including SMS text messaging, Multimedia Messaging Service (MMS) and Wireless Application Protocol (WAP). We discuss the IP Media Subsystem (IMS) - a centrally managed network architecture which is the basis for providing a number of services including instant messaging with presence, Push-to-Talk over Cellular (PoC), VoIP and location based services, irrespective of the underlying 2.5G or 3G network technology.

Also discussed is the long-term development of the two major 3G technologies into 4G mobile systems, with similar OFDM-based modulation schemes and performance to fixed and mobile WiMAX. We consider the challenge the 4G development of UMTS poses to CDMA2000's 4G Ultra Mobile Broadband and to the widespread adoption of WiMAX.

The BuddeComm Mobile Series includes statistics on overall mobile subscribers, 3G, prepaid mobile, ARPU and mobile charges. Other topics covered include 4G, Bluetooth, spectrum trading, Mobile Virtual Network Operators (MVNOs), roaming, termination rates, Mobile Number Portability (MNP) and Mobile Satellite Services (MSS).

Also included is an overview of WiMAX deployments worldwide, detailed regional information, industry developments and statistics for other markets that may provide an opportunity for WiMAX, such as the mobile data and mobile TV sectors. Industry information on the competing technologies such as HSDPA is also included.

Finally this report series also includes an overview and statistics on the various mobile content services such as music, gambling, adult content and mobile TV. Other topics covered include the mobile commerce market, telemetry, Location-Based Services (LBS), Global Positioning Services (GPS), and Automatic Data Capture including RFID - which is predicted to gain popularity due to a growing awareness of its benefits to many industries.

The BuddeComm Mobile Series is a unique publication which provides critical insights, explanations on the technologies involved in the mobile market and on industry developments. Corporate managers, financial and investment consultants, IT consultants and Government and education bodies will find this series particularly useful.