Google Android and Nokia Symbian

Increasing content, service and advertising market opportunities from competition in mobile OS, 2009-2014

Publication Date	March 2009
Publisher	Visiongain
Product Type	Report
Pages	119
ISBN Number	not applicable
Product Code	VIS00115

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Summary

The smart phone is critical - it represents the main growth sector for the mobile handset manufacturer and promises an associated increase in service revenues for the Mobile Network Operator (MNO).

With a new generation of improved smart phones, with fuller sized screen and keyboard and an improved user interface, the smart phone is a key element in providing greater user access to the mobile internet. If Smart phones are essentially highly handheld computers with wireless connectivity, then as with the PC, the operating system is critical. Will whoever captures this market be the Microsoft of the mobile?

This report considers the development of the open source mobile Operating Systems (OS) from the not for profit organisation Symbian Foundation (formed originally by Nokia) and Android (formed by Google) which are vying to be the open source smart phone mobile OS of choice for a range of handset manufacturers and mobile network operators.

There is a race taking place between the handset manufacturer (led by Nokia) and the content provider (led by Google) to become the leading provider of open source mobile OS for the smart phone.

Nokia, the owner of the Symbian Foundation, has made the company into a non for profit organisation and has recruited a number of companies to join as members and is converting various mobile OS into one unified version based on open source standards.

In terms of worldwide licences for mobile OS, it is Symbian which has traditionally held up to half of the world market, largely thanks to the dominance of Nokia in European markets. But over time Symbian has lost market share to other OS mobile providers including Apple's OSX and RIM's Blackberry OS.

Open source mobile OS services are being promoted by both Google (through Android) and Nokia (through Symbian) as a lower cost alternative to proprietary mobile OS standards and Microsoft's licence-based Windows Mobile OS standard.

But the goal of the new mobile OS standards is to become the centre of a sustainable mobile ecosystem, which includes handset, applications, content and provide recurring revenues to the handset or content company. In essence the control of the mobile OS is a key element in controlling the mobile ecosystem.

These developments affect the key foundations beneath the mobile telecoms industry, namely handsets and services. More opportunities will arise given the commitment by major players to support this arena. The digital commercial landscape is becoming more fractured with competitive activity increasing, indicating a proliferation in opportunities for players across the value chain. Can you afford to miss out on any such opportunities? And just how can your company make the most of this opportunity?

This report will show how rivals can compete given the current composition of the mobile value chain, with pressure on margins intensifying. Read this report and find out why and how a multitude of companies are leveraging OS platforms to rapidly grow their market presence and extending a wider variety of services and applications to a wider audience.

Why you need to order this report today:

Advertisers/Marketers-Discover how competition in mobile OS will influence the market by introducing new online and offline advertising platforms and how this can be used to drive brands and best utilise the mobile space. Learn about market issues specifically related to Android, Symbian and the iPhone as well as their competitors.
Mobile Operators-Learn what role there is for mobile operators in the expanding market of high end handsets and smartphones and what strategies are best employed in this area.
Mobile handset vendors-Discover what mobile subscribers will want from their handsets and what Android and Symbian are working to bring the mobile market. Learn about opportunities in this market and how these can be best utilised.
Mobile content providers-Discover what opportunities exist in the development of the mobile web and content from the Android, Symbian, iPhone and other platforms.

Who needs to read this report?

Directors, VP and Senior managers in:
Mobile/Cellular carriers and operators
Mobile handset manufacturers
Mobile applications developers and engineers Mobile advertisers/marketers Mobile web content players

Content

Executive Summary
E1.     The importance of smartphones
E2.     Mobile Ecosystem Transformation
E3.     Start of a true mobile OS race?
E4.     Standards and positioning in the mobile ecosystem
E7.     The Key Take Aways from this report

1.      The Competitive Landscape for the rival open source mobile Operating Systems (OS)
1.1     Introduction
1.1.1 Commercial open source OS enter the mass market
1.1.2   Overcoming market maturity and saturation
1.2     The traditional closed Mobile Operating System (OS) model
1.3     Disputed definitions of openness in mobile OS
1.4     Erosion in the validity and sustainability of licence fee-centric models
1.5     Defensive strategies by MNOs, handset manufacturers and rival Linux-based OS
1.6     Switch of focus from "devices" to "software and content"
1.7     The traditional value chain (Content provider, network operator & handset provider)
1.8     Transformation along the mobile value chain
1.9     Challenges facing the mobile operator & handset provider
1.10    The challenge of stimulating data growth
1.11    The Smartphone Stimulus: the iPhone as a growth driver for mobile data
1.12    Lifting restrictions on software for devices
1.13    Access enabler to content and search
1.14    The new types of business model
1.15    Key Point Summary

2       The Key Drivers for new Mobile open source Operating Systems OS)
2.1     Introduction
2.2     The competitive environment for the mobile open source OS
2.3     The continued growth of smartphones and 3G or HSPA networks
2.4     The growth of flat rate data plans
2.5     The emergence of improved User Interfaces (UI)
2.6     The personalisation of the mobile experience (use of the applications store)
2.7     The migration from the handset sales model to the service model
2.8     LiMo Foundation
2.9     Comparison between mobile OS market positioning in terms of cost
2.10    Key Point Summary

3       The development of the open source mobile operating system OS)
3.1     Introduction
3.2     The introduction of the Android operating system by Google
3.2.1   Extending search and apps over mobility
3.2.2   Encouraging ubiquity via open source
3.2.3   Android post-launch
3.2.4   Further Incentives for Google from Android
3.2.5   The growth of the Open Handset Alliance
3.2.6   The next steps for the deployment of the Android mobile OS
3.2.6.1 Releasing the G1
3.2.6.2 Launching Android Market
3.3     The introduction of the Symbian mobile OS by Nokia (and the Symbian Foundation)
3.3.1   Early synergies
3.3.2   The change in the Symbian business model to an open source model
3.3.3   The next steps for the development of the Symbian mobile OS
3.4     Key Point Summary

4       Towards the deployment of a new Mobile Ecosystem
4.1     Introduction
4.2     The prerequisites for successful deployment of an ecosystem
4.3     The development of an application developer base
4.4     The growth of a free or advertising based mobile model
4.6     The attractions of open source to the mobile handset company
4.7     The attractions of an open source OS to the Mobile Network Operator (MNO)
4.8     The attractions of an open source OS to the mobile subscriber
4.9     Key Point Summary

5       The Android mobile open source operating system (OS) - the key attributes
5.1     Introduction
5.2     The importance of Android for Google
5.3     Android as an enabler for mobile search, LBS and user defined content
5.4     Challenges for Android
5.5     Competitive threats
5.6     Opportunities for development
5.7     The forecast impact & adoption levels for Android
5.7.1   Potential Strengths & Weaknesses
5.7.1.1 Potential Strengths
5.7.1.2 Potential Weaknesses
5.8     Key Point Summary

6       The Symbian mobile open source operating system (OS) - the key attributes
6.1     Introduction
6.2     The importance of Symbian for Nokia
6.3     The Symbian Foundation
6.4     Challenges to the Symbian mobile OS
6.4.1   Competitive threats
6.4.2   Opportunities for development
6.5     The forecast impact & adoption levels for the Symbian mobile OS
6.5.1   Perceived strengths & weaknesses
6.5.1.1 Perceived Strengths
6.5.1.2 Perceived Weaknesses
6.5.2   Forecast open source OS growth versus overall OS growth
6.6     Key Point Summary

7       The impact of open source mobile operating systems on the mobile landscape
7.1     Introduction
7.2     Potential barriers to the adoption of Android & Symbian mobile OS standards
7.3     The potential competitive response from rival mobile operating systems
7.3.1   Microsoft Windows Mobile OS
7.3.2   Apple mobile OSX
7.3.3   Blackberry OS (RIM)
7.4     Reactions to the mobile open source operating system from the components of the mobile ecosystem
7.4.1   The mobile operator
7.4.2   The handset provider
7.4.3   The content provider
7.5     The mobile subscriber adoption of Android and Symbian to date
7.5.1   Subscriber preferences for mobile open source services
7.6     Key Point Summary

8.      Conclusions to the Mobile OS Race: The Android and Symbian factors in an emerging ecosystem
8.1     Introduction
8.2     Key factors in the Mobile OS race
8.3     The migration to free usage services
8.4     The future response from Microsoft
8.5     The future response from Apple
8.6     The creation of a new mobile ecosystem
8.7     The main factors affecting the future mobile OS growth
8.8     Winners & losers from the mobile OS race
8.8.1   2010- Make or Break
8.8.2 Crucial MNO support
8.9     Key Point Summary

List of charts, tables and figures in order of appearance

Chart 1: Estimated Mobile OS market shares as of the end of 2008
Figure 1. The Mobile Network Operator (MNO)'s position in the value chain Figure 2. Components of the traditional mobile sector value chain
Figure 3. Changes in components of the mobile value chain
Chart 2. RIM revenue breakdown, Q3 2008
Figure 4. Components of the new mobile sector value chain Table 1. Mobile Applications Store Launches since 2007
Chart 3. Selected MNO data growth statistics - year on year (excluding SMS) Table 3. Forecast new handset & smart phone sales from 2008 to 2013
Chart 4. Forecast new handset & smart phone sales from 2008 to 2013 Chart 5. A mobile OS market share forecast - from 2008 to 2013 Table 4. Forecast mobile OS market share predictions from 2008 to 2013 (in percentages)
Table 6. The LiMo Foundation membership
Figure 5. The LiMo Foundation OS Platform Scope
Figure 6. The relative market positioning of the main mobile OS types
Chart 6. Estimated smart phone market share as of the end of December 2008
Chart 7. Estimated smart phone mobile OS market share as of the end of 2008
Table 7. Estimated relative changes in smart phone mobile OS year on year (for 2008)
Table 8. Google's development guidelines for Mobile handsets
Table 9. Google handset mobile experience (adapted by Visiongain)
Table 10. The members of the Open Handset Alliance
Table 11. The HTC Magic Android handset specification, initial information
Figure 7. The current mobile ecosystem development cycle
Table 13. T-Mobile UK smart phone data traffic uplifts Figure 8. The Android mobile OS Architecture schematic
Chart 8. The forecast subscribers for Linux & Android open source mobile OS from 2008 to 2013
Chart 9. Forecast subscribers for the Symbian open source mobile OS from 2008 to 2013
Chart 10. Apple iPhone sales from launch (from mid 2007 to the end of 2008) Table 14. Services provided by the handset "operator"
Chart 11. Mobile web browsing statistics for smart phones, February 2009 Table 15. Mobile OS market share by mobile browser usage (February 2009)

List of organistaions mentioned in this report

Acer
Adobe
Aplix Corporation
Apple
Ascender
Asus
AT&T
Audience
BBC
Blyk
Broadcom
China Mobile
China Telecom
eBay
Ericsson
Esmertec
Fujitsu
Garmin
Google
HTC
Huawei Technologies
Intel
Interbrand
KDDI
LG
Marvell Semiconductor
McAfee
Microsoft
Motorola
NEC
Nokia
Noser Engineering
NTT DoCoMo
Nuance Communications
NVIDIA
O2 UK
Opera
Orange
PacketVideo
Palm
Panasonic
PayPal
Qualcomm
RIM
Samsung
SFR
Siemens
SingTel
SiRF
Skype
SkyPop
Sonivox
Sony Ericsson
Sprint-Nextel
STMicroelectronics
Sun Microsystems
Symbian Foundation
Synaptics
TAT - The Astonishing Tube
Techfaith
Telecom Italia Mobile
Telefonica
Texas Instruments
T-Mobile
UIQ
Vodafone Group
Yahoo