2007 Australia - Mobile Data and Content - The long wait for 4G

Publication Date	September 2007
Publisher	BuddeComm
Product Type	Report
Pages	138
ISBN Number	not applicable
Product Code	BUD00170

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Summary

Mobile data as it has been promoted to the market through portals with proprietary content continues to be more hype than reality; Premium SMS has been more successful than On-Deck services from the operators. All the announcements about mobile content, mobile payments and mobile TV largely relate to future developments. We don't see any of these services reaching mass market potential until 2010-2012. The happy aquadropoly' has very little incentive to cannibalise its lucrative voice services. Voice and SMS combined keep on generating well over 90% of all mobile revenues. For more information, see chapter 1, page 1.

The key problem is still the business models. As soon as true, affordable mobile data is made available voice and SMS will be cannibalised by mobile email, as has happened in Japan. Furthermore, the current technologies and available spectrum is also making mass market use of mobile data problematic. For the time being the operators will keep the costs high for their mobile data services, limiting the market to business users, professionals and the top end of the consumer market. At the same time plain data traffic is increasing at very fast rates, fuelled by the capped prices. This will rapidly change the content business model to Off-Deck where users will look for content directly on the Internet, bypassing the operators and the PSMS companies. For more information, see chapters 2.1, page 12 and chapter 2.2, page 19.

That is not to say that the future is not in mobile content and other mobile data services. It certainly will be. The issue is the slow pace at which the market is moving forward. Once true mobile data services become available and affordable we will see the machine-to-machine market easily outstripping the human subscribers. Once wireless broadband capacity has become a commodity technologies such as RFID, location-based services and telemetry will explode onto the scene, but again this is still some years away. For more information, see chapters 9, page 86, chapter 10, page 88 and chapter 11, page 97.

For the moment, however, the operators will protect their lucrative, proprietary SMS services for as long as possible. Growth in SMS continues, but at a slower rate, and price pressure has put a strain on revenue growth. MMS has never really taken off and it will also be some years before mobile TV begins to generate any significant revenues. For more information, see chapter 3, page 29.

The mobile content market remains dominated by ringtones and wallpaper, with music coming in a distant third. Mobile email is by far the most used application among business users; thanks to a range of new smart phone devices this market has seen significant growth. Beyond these markets, most mobile content providers have given up and mobile marketing is expected to decline, due to a lack of real business opportunities in a market controlled by the operators. For more information, see chapter 7, page 60.

Key Highlights

Opportunities in mobile data remain limited to ringtones and wallpaper and some music - these three, combined, account for revenues worth close to $500 million.
HSDPA services are priced beyond market affordability.
The operators want to prevent a move from proprietary voice and SMS to open mobile email services.
Mobile data revenues are limited to less than 5% of total mobile revenues.
SMS remains a lucrative market, worth over $1.5 billion. It is expected that in 2008 over 10 billion SMS messages will be sent.
Mobile TV will never take off. Video-based services over wireless broadband, however, will present excellent business opportunities after 2010-2012.
The premium SMS market remains interesting and is dominated by overseas players.
Both HSPA and WiMAX are contesting the wireless broadband market. While the advantage of HSPA is that the technology is available, operators are reluctant to make use of this advantage.
Commercial WiMAX is still two years away. The deployment of WiMAX by OPEL will certainly start shedding some light on its viability.

Further information provided:

Up-to-date overviews of the market and the industry as at mid-2007.
Statistics on revenues, subscribers, ARPU and market shares.
Separation of industry hype from market reality.
Analysis of the infrastructure developments such as HSDPA and WiMAX, including future directions.
Key players in the market analysis and comments.
Overviews of operators, content providers and Premium SMS operators.
Business analysis and overviews of the various 2G and 3G technologies.
Analysis of trends and developments in pricing, substitution and FMC.
Data in this report is the latest available at the time of preparation and may not be for the current year.

Content

1. Mobile data market in 2007
- 1.1 Market forecasts
  - 1.1.1 The blurred statistics of mobile data
  - 1.1.2 Unique business opportunities
  - 1.1.3 Mobile data revenues
  - 1.1.4 Business e-mobile
  - 1.1.5 Ericsson Consumer Lab Survey
- 1.2 Market issues
  - 1.2.1 Mobile marketing remains a furphy
  - 1.2.2 Crazy John's to sell mobile data
  - 1.2.3 The market in 2007
  - 1.2.4 From WiMAX and 3G to 4G Mobile
  - 1.2.5 Mobile TV
  - 1.2.6 Mobile content - a market still kept hostage
  - 1.2.7 BlackBerry developments
2. Mobile data market overview
- 2.1 HSDPA
  - 2.1.1 HSPA, HSDPA, HSUPA
  - 2.1.2 Australia's start with HSDPA
  - 2.1.3 Will HSPA break through into the broadband market?
- 2.2 BlackBerry
  - 2.2.1 Business tool
  - 2.2.2 Developments in 2006 and 2007
  - 2.2.3 Global developments based on GPRS
  - 2.2.4 High costs
  - 2.2.5 Telstra's service
  - 2.2.6 Optus services
  - 2.2.7 Future away from BlackBerry
- 2.3 GPRS
  - 2.3.1 Overview
  - 2.3.2 Very slow start
  - 2.3.3 Telstra first to launch commercial service
  - 2.3.4 Telstra niche market approach to GPRS
  - 2.3.5 Vodafone Live!
  - 2.3.6 WiFi/GPRS/3G combination
  - 2.3.7 Push-to-talk (PTT)
  - 2.3.8 Unstructured Supplementary Service Data (USSD)
- 2.4 WAP
  - 2.4.1 Wireless Application Protocol (WAP) - historical overview
  - 2.4.2 WAP over GPRS
- 2.5 EDGE
  - 2.5.1 Beefed up GPRS
  - 2.5.2 Full coverage in 2006
  - 2.5.3 IP mobile
3. SMS market
- 3.1 Overview
  - 3.1.1 Introduction
- 3.2 Trends
  - 3.2.1 Market trends
  - 3.2.2 SMS numbering
  - 3.2.3 Premium Rate SMS
  - 3.2.4 Business SMS
  - 3.2.5 Skype SMS
- 3.3 Statistical overview
  - 3.3.1 SMS stats and growth drivers
  - 3.3.2 Market shares operators
  - 3.3.3 Text and data applications
- 3.4 Market forecasts
  - 3.4.1 SMS revenues leveling off
  - 3.4.2 Cash starved teenage markets
  - 3.4.3 Little uptake beyond the teenage market
  - 3.4.4 Revenue forecasts
  - 3.4.5 SMS statistics
4. Premium rate SMS
- 4.1 The market in 2007
- 4.2 Key players
  - 4.2.1 International players
  - 4.2.2 National players
- 4.3 Premium SMS revenues
- 4.4 Market analysis
  - 4.4.1 Inflexible conditions
  - 4.4.2 Carrier portals
  - 4.4.3 Still no economically viable business models
  - 4.4.4 Key market 13-19 year olds
5. MMS Market
- 5.1 Market overview
  - 5.1.1 Introduction
  - 5.1.2 The market in 2005 and 2006 - 2007
  - 5.1.3 Multimedia phones
  - 5.1.4 Original developments
  - 5.1.5 Wrong predictions (again)
- 5.2 Don't write MMS off yet
6. Mobile TV Market
- 6.1 The Market in 2007
  - 6.1.1 Hutchison's €3' is shaking up the market
  - 6.1.2 Ground breaking new services
  - 6.1.3 Foxtel on NEXT G
  - 6.1.4 On demand mobisodes
  - 6.1.5 Device driven developments
  - 6.1.6 Industry under pressure
- 6.2 Spectrum for mobile broadcasting
  - 6.2.1 TV Channels A and B for digital services
  - 6.2.2 New Australian DVB-H trial
- 6.3 Mobile Broadcast Multicast Service (MBMS)
- 6.4 Key market 13-19 year olds
- 6.5 DVB-H
  - 6.5.1 Overview
  - 6.5.2 DVB-H trials
- 6.6 Telstra pulls out of Movemedia trial
- 6.7 Analysis of video-based mobile developments
  - 6.7.1 Mobile TV - are you serious?
  - 6.7.2 The future indeed is video communications
  - 6.7.3 International overview
  - 6.7.4 Mobile video has been over-hyped
  - 6.7.5 Financial and technical limitations
  - 6.7.6 Competing technologies
  - 6.7.7 Regulation-driven competition
  - 6.7.8 Checking market realities
- 6.8 Mobile TV and WiMAX could be a good match
- 6.9 The mobile TV fallacy
7. Mobile content
- 7.1 Industry overview
  - 7.1.1 The mobile content market in 2007
  - 7.1.2 Mobile TV
- 7.2 Major players
  - 7.2.1 Operators - developments
  - 7.2.2 Service providers
- 7.3 Market forecasts
  - 7.3.1 Revenue forecast
- 7.4 Services overview
  - 7.4.1 Ringtones and wallpaper
  - 7.4.2 Mobile gaming
  - 7.4.3 Mobile email
  - 7.4.4 Gambling
  - 7.4.5 Voting
  - 7.4.6 Advertising
  - 7.4.7 MP3/iPods
  - 7.4.8 Music
- 7.5 Regulatory framework
  - 7.5.1 Overview
  - 7.5.2 SMS numbering
  - 7.5.3 Adult content
  - 7.5.4 SMS spam
8. Wireless mobility market
- 8.1 Mobile market
- 8.2 Mobility applications
- 8.3 The move towards 4G
- 8.4 Scenario forecasting revenues
  - 8.4.1 Battle with the fixed operators
  - 8.4.2 Valued between $10 and $15 billion
  - 8.4.3 Battles between mobile and wireless
  - 8.4.4 Revenue forecasts
- 8.5 Mobility devices
  - 8.5.1 The communications market of tomorrow
  - 8.5.2 Moore's Law: storage, access, processing
  - 8.5.3 Bringing the future back home
9. Telemetry
- 9.1 Overview
- 9.2 Telemetry statistics (traditional market)
  - 9.2.1 Utilities telemetering
  - 9.2.2 Mobile-based telemetry
10. Location services
- 10.1 Location-based services
  - 10.1.1 Mobile origin location indicator and emergency
  - 10.1.2 Developments in the USA
  - 10.1.3 Developments in Australia
  - 10.1.4 ACA's discussion paper
  - 10.1.5 Seeker Wireless Pty Ltd
  - 10.1.6 Intelligent Transport Systems (ITS)
  - 10.1.7 Cell broadcasting trial from Seven Network - 1998 - discontinued
  - 10.1.8 Vodafone's €My Vodafone' service
  - 10.1.9 Location and navigation from Sensis
  - 10.1.10 Mobile Location Manager from Telstra
  - 10.1.11 Optus Zoo FindA
- 10.2 Car Navigation Systems
  - 10.2.1 Early results
  - 10.2.2 Market gathering pace in 2007
  - 10.2.3 Analysis
11. RFID
- 11.1 The Internet of Things
- 11.2 Machine-to-machine transmission
- 11.3 RFID - a business revolution
- 11.4 Technology still in its early days
- 11.5 Developments in Australia
  - 11.5.1 Sport applications
  - 11.5.2 Libraries
  - 11.5.3 Livestock
  - 11.5.4 Supply chain management
  - 11.5.5 Mail tracking
  - 11.5.6 Vehicle tracking
  - 11.5.7 Telstra's RFID plans
- 11.6 RFID experimental licences
- 11.7 Industry association
12. Public mobile radio and trunked mobile radio
- 12.1 Mobile radio market set to boom - analysis 2007
- 12.2 Latest developments
  - 12.2.1 Telstra Vehicle Access Network
  - 12.2.2 Zeon Digital Network
  - 12.2.3 The collapse of Simoco
- 12.3 Market statistics
- 12.4 The slow road from PMR and TMR to DMR
  - 12.4.1 Introduction
  - 12.4.2 Trunked Mobile Radio (TMR)
  - 12.4.3 Public Mobile Radio (PMR)
  - 12.4.4 Spectrum licensing
- 12.5 The key standards
  - 12.5.1 APCO-25
  - 12.5.2 Terrestrial Trunked Radio (TETRA)
- 12.6 Major service providers
  - 12.6.1 ComGroup Australia
- 12.7 Emergency services organisations networks
  - 12.7.1 New South Wales
  - 12.7.2 South Australia
  - 12.7.3 Western Australia
  - 12.7.4 Queensland
  - 12.7.5 Tasmania
  - 12.7.6 Victoria
13. Glossary of abbreviations
List of Tables
- Exhibit 1 - Why mobile marketing won't work
- Exhibit 2 - Australian operator's HSDPA plans
- Exhibit 3 - GPRS advantages (the theory)
- Exhibit 4 - Revenue mix PSMS
- Exhibit 5 - Comparison of mobile messaging technologies
- Exhibit 6 - Comparison of SMS, EMS and MMS by Ovum
- Exhibit 7 - Comparison of SMS and MMS by Mobile Streams
- Exhibit 8 - Mobile TV minutes
- Exhibit 9 - BlueSkyFrog clients and partners
- Exhibit 10 - belong mobile services
- Exhibit 11 - Key m-gambling market segments
- Exhibit 12 - Key issues for Mobility Industry
- Exhibit 13 - Service evolution vision
- Exhibit 14 - Three Services, One Network, One radio device
- Exhibit 15 - Two-way radio systems
- Exhibit 16 - NSW GRN
- Exhibit 17 - The South Australian GRN
- Table 1 - Mobile data revenues major players - 2007(e)
- Table 2 - Growth in SMS services and percent increase over financial years - 2000 - 2006
- Table 3 - Growth in Telstra SMS messages - 2001 - 2007
- Table 4 - SMS market share by operator - 2006
- Table 5 - Revenues major players and share - 2005 - 2007
- Table 6 - SMS growth forecasts - 2003 - 2010
- Table 7 - Revenues PSMS market - 2004 - 2008
- Table 8 - PSMS market share by operator - 2007
- Table 9 - Australian content market revenue - 2005 - 2008
- Table 10 - Mobile content ARPU per customer - 2007
- Table 11 -Mobile and wireless revenues - 2007; 2012; 2017
- Table 12 - Telemetry devices - 1998; 2000; 2004
- Table 13 - Telemetry market - vertical market share forecast
- Table 14 - Two-way radio market - 1990 - 2010