Telecom and datacom Report Package

Publication Date	August 2008
Publisher	Communications Industry Res.
Product Type	Report
Pages
ISBN Number	not applicable
Product Code	CIR00005

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Summary

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Telecom Transceiver and Transponder Markets: The Next Five Years
Overview

This report provides our latest forecasts of transceivers and transponders for the public networking environment for the years 2008 to 2013. The report focuses especially on what will be required of these products to take public networking into the world of the ITU-defined Optical Transport Network (OTN) in which Ethernet rather than SONET/SDH will dominate.

This report discusses the opportunities that are likely to emerge as the result of this transition. For example, it will take a look at how OC-768, 40 GigE and 100 GigE are likely to coexist in carrier networks and what this will mean to transceiver/transponder makers.

It will also examine future reach requirements for transceivers and transponders and what parts of the network will be biggest revenue earners; long-haul, metro or access. With regard to access, we will also examine current opportunities for PON transceivers; an ultra-high volume, ultra-low margin market, if ever there was one.

Also in this report, we review key enabling technologies for public network transmission modules and how the many and how the various overlapping MSAs will play themselves out in the market. The report also discusses how the leading firms in the telecom transceiver/transponder space are planning their product and marketing strategies for the future.

The telecom transceiver report analyzes and quantifies all of the key market opportunities in this business. Detailed volume and value forecasts are provided for each protocol covered broken out by data rates, MSA, technology platform, reach, etc.

Content

Data Communications Transceiver Markets: The Next Five Years
Executive Summary
- E.1 Current Business Conditions in the Datacom Transceiver Market
- E.2 Key Opportunities in the Modules Market
  - E.2.1 Opportunities Below 10 Gbps
  - E.2.2 10 Gbps Growth
  - E.2.3 Opportunities, Standards and MSAs
- E.3 Summary of Forecasts
- E.4 Long-Term Direction for the Datacom Transceiver Market
Chapter One: Introduction
- 1.1 Background to Report
  - 1.1.1 Shifts in Applications: Video and Cloud Computing
  - 1.1.2 The Future Role of Optics in a Copper World
- 1.2 Objective and Scope of Report
- 1.3 Methodology of Report
- 1.4 Plan of Report
Chapter Two: Transceiver Technology, Standards and MSAs
- 2.1 Enabling Technologies
  - 2.1.1 Impact of Optical Integration
  - 2.1.2 Impact of Silicon Photonics
  - 2.1.3 WDM Technology
  - 2.1.4 Active Optical Cabling
  - 2.1.5 Other New Directions in Optical and Copper Cabling
  - 2.1.6 New Directions in Electronics Including EDC
- 2.2 Standards Evolution
  - 2.2.1 10-Gigabit Ethernet
  - 2.2.2 Fibre Channel: To 8 Gbps and Beyond
- 2.3 MSA Evolution
  - 2.3.1 A Future for 300-pin and XENPAK?
  - 2.3.2 Whither XPAK and X2?
  - 2.3.3 The Future Market XFP
  - 2.3.4 SFP+
  - 2.3.5 Parallel Optics and Its MSAs
Chapter Three: Markets, Applications and Forecasts
- 3.1 Introduction and Approach to Forecast
  - 3.1.1 Changes from Last Years Forecast
- 3.2 Evolution of Information Technology and Networking
  - 3.2.1 The Impact of Cloud Computing
  - 3.2.2 The Impact of Video
  - 3.2.3 The Impact of Mobile Computing
- 3.3 Ethernet Markets
  - 3.3.1 Residential Ethernet Forecasts
  - 3.3.2 Business Ethernet Forecasts
  - 3.3.3 Forecast of Ethernet by Media
  - 3.3.4 Servers, Data Centers and the First Mass Markets for 10 GigE
  - 3.3.5 Forecast of 10 GigE by IEEE Standard
  - 3.3.6 Forecast of 10 GigE by MSA
  - 3.3.7 A Note on 10 GigE and PCs
  - 3.3.8 A Note on 10 GigE and Residential Ethernet
  - 3.3.9 The Future of GigE
  - 3.3.10 A Final Summary Forecast of Ethernet
- 3.4 Fibre Channel, InfiniBand, and Parallel Optics
  - 3.4.1 Fibre Channel Market Analysis
  - 3.4.2 Fibre Channel Market Forecasts
  - 3.4.3 InfiniBand and Parallel Optics Analysis
  - 3.4.4 Parallel Optics Market Forecasts
- 3.5 Summary of Markets
Chapter Four: Key Transceiver Firms and Their Strategies
- 4.1 Introduction
- 4.2 Avago
- 4.3 Finisar
- 4.4 Intel (now Emcore)
- 4.5 JDSU
- 4.6 Luxtera
- 4.7 MergeOptics
- 4.8 OCP (Now part of Oplink)
- 4.9 Opnext
- 4.10 A Note on Asian Modules Makers
Acronyms and Abbreviations Used in this Report
About the Author
List of Exhibits
- Exhibit E-1: Datacom Transceiver Market Forecasts ($ Millions)
- Exhibit 2-1: New Laser Integrated Products for Parallel Solutions
- Exhibit 2-2: 10-GigE Dispersion Solutions
- Exhibit 2-3: IEEE Standards and their Key Features
- Exhibit 2-4: Directions for the New 8-Gbps Fibre Channel Standards
- Exhibit 3-1: PC Shipments, 2008 to 2013
- Exhibit 3-2: Residential Ethernet Shipments by Type of Equipment
- Exhibit 3-3: Residential Ethernet Shipments by Data Rate
- Exhibit 3-4: Business Ethernet Shipments by Type of Equipment
- Exhibit 3-5: Business Ethernet Shipments by Data Rate
- Exhibit 3-6: Ethernet Shipments by Media (Millions)
- Exhibit 3-7: 10 GigE Shipments by IEEE Standard (Millions)
- Exhibit 3-8: 10 GigE Shipments by MSA and IEEE Standards
- Exhibit 3-9: 10 GigE Shipments by MSA ($ Million)
- Exhibit 3-10: 10 GigE Shipments by IEEE Specs ($ Million)
- Exhibit 3-11: Ethernet Market Value: Analysis
- Exhibit 3-12: Ethernet Market Value: By Data Rate ($ Millions)
- Exhibit 3-13: Ethernet Market Value: By Media ($ Millions)
- Exhibit 3-14: Fiber Channel Shipments (Millions)
- Exhibit 3-15: Fiber Channel Pricing ($)
- Exhibit 3-16: Fiber Channel Market ($ Millions)
- Exhibit 3-17: 8/10 Fiber Channel Shipments by MSA
- Exhibit 3-18: Parallel Optics Forecasts
- Exhibit 3-19: Datacom Transceiver Market Forecasts ($ Millions)
Telecom Transceiver and Transponder Markets: The Next Five Years
Executive Summary
- E.1 Current Business Conditions in the Telecom Transceiver/Transponder Market
- E.2 Key Opportunities in the Telecom Modules Market
  - E.2.1 OC-768 Deployment Becoming a Reality
  - E.2.2 10 Gbps is Still the Sweet Spot for SONET/SDH
  - E.2.3 Opportunities, Standards and MSAs
  - E.2.4 New Opportunities for WDM and the Aging of SONET/SDH
  - E.2.5 Opportunities in PONs
- E.3 Summary of Forecasts
- E.4 Long-Term Direction for the Transceivers/Transponders Market: Life Beyond Telecom?
Chapter One: Introduction
- 1.1 Background to Report
  - 1.1.1 Shifts in Applications: Video and Cloud Computing
  - 1.1.2 Shifts in Technology: OTN and 40/100-Gbps Backbones
- 1.2 Objectives and Scope of Report
- 1.3 Methodology of Report
- 1.4 Plan of Report
Chapter Two: Transceiver/Transponder Technology, Standards, and MSAs
- 2.1 Transceivers and Transponders
  - 2.1.1 TOSAs and ROSAs
- 2.2 Enabling Technologies 2.2.1 Impact of Optical Integration and Silicon Photonics
  - 2.2.2 Influential Developments in Tunable Laser and Other WDM Technology
  - 2.2.3 WDM versus 40 Gbps
  - 2.2.4 Impact of New Dispersion Compensation Technology
- 2.3 Standards Evolution
  - 2.3.1 The ITU, OTN and the End of SONET
  - 2.3.2 Ethernet: How 40/100 GigE Will be Adapted to Public Networks
  - 2.3.3 Next PONs: WDM and 10 Gbps
- 2.4 MSA Evolution
  - 2.4.1 A Future for 300-pin and XENPAK?
  - 2.4.2 Whither XPAK and X2?
  - 2.4.3 The Role of XFP and SFP+ in the Public Network
  - 2.4.4 40-Gbps MSAs
  - 2.4.5 MSA for Tunable Transponders
Chapter Three: Transceivers, Transponders and Markets
- 3.1 Applications Drivers for Infrastructure Building in the Public Network
  - 3.1.1 Video
- 3.2 TOSA/ROSA Markets
- 3.3 Long-haul and Ultra-long Haul Networks
  - 3.3.1 Network Evolution
  - 3.3.2 Transponder/Transceiver Requirements
- 3.4 Metro Networks
  - 3.4.1 Network Evolution
  - 3.4.2 Transponder/Transceiver Requirements
- 3.5 Access Networks
  - 3.5.1 PON Developments
  - 3.5.2 Transponder/Transceiver Requirements
- 3.6 SONET/SDH Forecasts
- 3.7 WDM Forecasts
- 3.8 PON Forecasts
Chapter Four: Major Module Firms and Their Strategies
- 4.1 Introduction
- 4.2 Avanex
- 4.3 BinOptics
- 4.4 Bookham
- 4.5 CyOptics
- 4.6 Finisar
- 4.7 Intel (now Emcore)
- 4.8 JDSU
- 4.9 OCP (now Oplink)
- 4.10 Opnext
- 4.11 OpVista
- 4.12 PON Diplexer and Triplexer Suppliers
- 4.13 A Note on Asian Modules Makers
Acronyms and Abbreviations Used in this Report
List of Exhibits
- Exhibit E-1: Strategies in the FTTx Components and Modules Market
- Exhibit 2-1: New Laser Integrated Products for Parallel Solutions
- Exhibit 2-2: Types, Mechanisms and Suppliers of Telecom Tunable Lasers
- Exhibit 2-3: PON Technologies
- Figure 1-4: 10-Gig Transceiver/Transponder Form Factors
- Exhibit 3-1: The SONET/SDH Module Market by Data Rate
- Exhibit 3-2: OC-192 Module Markets by Reach: 2007-2013
- Exhibit 3-3: OC-192 Module Markets by MSA: 2007-2013
- Exhibit 3-4: OC-768 Module Markets by Reach: 2007-2013
- Exhibit 3-5: The WDM Module Market by Data Rate and CWDM/DWDM Breakout: 2007-2013
- Exhibit 3-6: 10 Gbps and Above WDM Module Markets by Reach: 2007-2013
- Exhibit 3-7: WDM Module Markets by MSA: 2007-2013
- Exhibit 3-8: Evolution of the FTTx (Millions of Subscribers Added in Year)
- Exhibit 3-9: PON Transceiver Markets: 2007-2013
- Exhibit 3-10: Worldwide Transmission Modules Markets: 2007-2013 ($ Millions)
- Exhibit 4-1: Selected Suppliers of Non-Commodity PON Transceivers