Printed and Chipless RFID Forecasts, Technologies & Players 2008-2018

Publication Date	February 2008
Publisher	IDTechEx
Product Type	Report
Pages	245
ISBN Number	not applicable
Product Code	ITE00015

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Summary

The biggest opportunity for RFID is the item level tagging of all things - demanding trillions of tags yearly. This ultimately calls for a tag costing 0.1 cents and deposited directly onto the item itself, such as by printing. Printed and Chipless RFID technologies have already demonstrated or have the potential to achieve this. Interestingly, few of the biggest chip RFID suppliers are working on these technologies. Instead, printers, packagers and electronics companies are leading development, some seeing the ultra low cost RFID tag as just the beginning - with integrated ultra low cost components such as displays, sensors and power to come. This is the only report to cover the technologies, players, opportunities and challenges of what will be the most widely used RFID technologies. Detailed forecasts are given and global progress assessed.

Printed and chipless RFID tags can be electronically interrogated to reveal ID and other data. They do not contain a microchip and therefore can cost much less than chip RFID. From being just 0.8% of the RFID market in 2007 with cumulative sales of 125 million chipless tags to date (compared to 4157 million chip RFID), chipless devices have the potential to grow to 62.3% of the market in 2017. Ultimately, the end game of RFID will be that RFID is almost free, in the same way that barcodes are today, and which are printed onto every item.

There are ten different types of RFID technologies that do not contain a microchip, these work on different principles. Some versions can be fully printed. Some of the biggest names in the business now offer both chip and Chipless RFID in order to cover a full range of user needs. From AstraZeneca to Calvin Klein, companies are already using them in large volumes and many paper and packaging companies have licensed the various processes.

Printed and chipless RFID can operate to over 10 meters range and 256 bits of data, can cost one tenth of their silicon chip equivalents and have a greater physical performance. Printed and chipless RFID can be materials based, or it can consist of transistorless circuits. Transparent polymer transistor circuits are now also available from Philips, PolyIC, OrganicID and Motorola among others. These directly mimic the circuit on a chip. All this will means printed and chipless technology is addressing mainstream RFID applications and will rapidly grow the market by price reductions of one to two magnitudes.

We also cover radar arrays which operate at 60GHz, offer anticollision and read ranges of up to 300 foot, along with the low frequency, sub 0.001 cent cost printed RFID stripes which have already been sold in 700,000 gaming cards in Germany. All the technologies, players, challenges and opportunities are covered in this comprehensive report.

Forecasts by technology type

For the lowest cost technologies, we consider how the cost structure will probably not be on a per tag basis, where the value of the tags in hundreds of billions is only a few million dollars, but those involved will make money on licensing the technology, readers, data management etc. This is similar to barcodes today - the money spent on barcodes is negligible unlike when they were first invented and applied as a separate label.

What you will learn

The world's only in depth report covering printed and chipless RFID technologies and companies
Detailed market forecasts by printed and chipless technology from 2007 to 2017 available only from IDTechEx
Analysis of the technologies being implemented today
Detailed case histories and company profiles of the many trials and sales successes of chipless RFID
Sales leads and opportunities
Unbiased assessment of who will be the winners and losers in the shakeout and what the future will bring

Content

Executive Summary And Conclusions
1. Introduction
- 1.1. Roadmap For Rfid 2008-2018
- 1.2. What Are Printed And Chipless Rfid Tags?
- 1.3. Why Are They Needed In Supply Chains?
  - 1.3.1. Consumer Packaged Goods (Cpg)
  - 1.3.2. Pharmaceuticals
- 1.4. Where Else Will Chipless Rfid Be Needed?
  - 1.4.1. Ubiquitous Sensor Networks
  - 1.4.2. Self Adjusting Use By Date
  - 1.4.3. Assets
  - 1.4.4. Laundry And Rented Garments
  - 1.4.5. Books At Manufacture
  - 1.4.6. Postal Items
  - 1.4.7. Conveyances, Logistics, Traffic Management
- 1.5. Silicon Chips And Epcglobal
  - 1.5.1. Shortcomings Of Silicon Chip Rfid
  - 1.5.2. Shortcomings Of Gen2 Epc - Universality By Tag Complexity
  - 1.5.3. Robustness Of The Layered Approach Backed By Epcglobal
  - 1.5.4. Implications
- 1.6. Constraints On Market Growth
  - 1.6.1. Impediments To Highest Volume Rfid
- 1.7. Ultimate Potential
  - 1.7.1. Potential For Different Applications
  - 1.7.2. Tag Price Sensitivity At Highest Volumes
  - 1.7.3. Price Sensitivity Curve For Rfid (Adoption Curve)
2. Printed And Chipless Rfid Technologies
- 2.2. Comparison - First Generation
- 2.3. Commercial Successes
  - 2.3.1. Acoustomagnetic Tags - Error Prevention
  - 2.3.2. Saw Tags - X-Cyte, Microdesign, Iray Technologies, Thoronics, Ctr
- 2.4. Hid Barkhausen Cards - Secure Access
- 2.5. Lessons From The Limited Success Or Failure Of Other Approaches
- 2.6. Electromagnetic - Flying Null, Link-Sure, Confirm Technologies, Remoso, Holotag, Zebra Technologies, Scipher Tssi, Mxt, Fuji Electric, Unitika
- 2.7. Swept Rf Lc Array - Miyake, Lintec, Cwosrfid, Navitas, Checkpoint, Tagsense, Rfcode
3. Second Generation Chipless Rfid - Potentially Open Systems
- 3.1. The Main Contenders Compared
- 3.2. Electromagnetic Conductive Ink Stripe Rfid - Mreal, Vtt, Panipol, Acreo, Somark Innovations, Menippos, Printed Systems
  - 3.2.1. New Ink Stripe Format
  - 3.2.2. Potential Advantages And Disadvantages Vs Silicon
  - 3.2.3. Market Thrust
  - 3.2.4. Technical Development
  - 3.2.5. The Somark Innovations Product New In 2006
  - 3.2.6. The Mreal/ Vtt Technologies/ Panipol Product
  - 3.2.7. Acreo
  - 3.2.8. Menippos And Printed Systems Gmbh
- 3.3. Printed Radar Arrays, Inksure And Vubiq
  - 3.3.1. Inksure
  - 3.3.2. Vubiq
- 3.4. Surface Acoustic Wave - Rfsaw, Thoronics
  - 3.4.1. Potential Advantages And Disadvantages Vs Silicon
  - 3.4.2. Market Thrust
  - 3.4.3. Technical Development
  - 3.4.4. Saw Standards Epcglobal
  - 3.4.5. Companies Seeking Saw Open Systems - Rfsaw, Ibm Global Services, Thoronics
  - 3.4.6. Ibm Global Services Success In 2006/2007
  - 3.4.7. Rfid Location With Passive Tags
  - 3.4.8. Case Study: Highway Non-Stop Tolling Usa - Rfsaw
- 3.5. Thin Film Transistor Circuits (Tftcs)
- 3.6. Other
  - 3.6.1. How To Eat Rfid
- 3.7. Lowest Cost Antenna Design
  - 3.7.1. Choice Of Electrodes And Interconnects
4. Thin Film Transistor Circuits (Tftcs)
- 4.1. Potential Advantages And Disadvantages Vs Silicon
  - 4.1.1. Tftcs Best Suited For Non-Rfid Applications In The Short Term?
  - 4.1.2. A Key Limitation Is Frequency
  - 4.1.3. Printed Tftc Rfid Cannot Tackle Uhf And Microwave?
  - 4.1.4. Low Cost Not Guaranteed
- 4.2. Market Thrust And Technical Progress
- 4.3. Opportunities For Passive Tftc Rfid Labels
  - 4.3.1. Rfid Printed Directly On Products And Packaging
- 4.4. Opportunities For Active Tftc Rfid
- 4.5. Tftc Value Chain - Companies Change Position
- 4.6. Technical Development - Geometry, Carrier Mobility, Substrate
  - 4.6.1. Transistor Geometry Or Mobility?
  - 4.6.2. The Compromises In Choosing Substrates
- 4.7. Printed Memory For Rfid- Hp, Ricoh, Matsushita, Thin Film Electronics, Motorola, Fuji Film And Others
- 4.8. Thirty Three Tftc Players Compared - Market Thrust
- 4.9. Why Tftcs Will Be The Biggest Breakthrough In Electronic Smart Packaging
- 4.10. Thin Film Silicon Vs Organics Or Inorganics
  - 4.10.1. First Came Thin Film Silicon
  - 4.10.2. Organic Semiconductors - Two Choices
  - 4.10.3. Polyic Developments
  - 4.10.4. Dai Nippon Printing Semiconductor Development
  - 4.10.5. Power Conservation - Cmos
  - 4.10.6. Progress Towards Flexible/Biodegradable Substrates For Organic Tfts
- 4.11. Wild Card - Inorganic Semiconductors
- 4.12. Game-Changing Breakthrough From Kovio In 2007
5. Displays And Sensors For Chipless Rfid
- 5.1. Choice Of Displays
- 5.2. Choice Of Sensors
6. Markets For Chipless Rfid 2008-2018
- 6.1. Historical Sales Of Chipless Tags
  - 6.1.2. Cumulative Sales Chip Vs Chipless
- 6.2. Chipless Share Of Rfid Market By Numbers 2008-2018
- 6.3. Proportion For Cpg 2008-2018
- 6.4. Chipless Rfid By Technology 2008-2018
- 6.5. Unit Price Trends By Chipless Technology 2008-2018
- 6.6. Chipless Share Of Total Rfid Market Value 2008-2018
- 6.7. Chipless Vs Chip Share Of Total Rfid Market By Value 2008-2018
- 6.8. Rfid Market By System Component 2008-2018
- 6.9. Rfid Market By Location Of Tag 2008-2018 And Chipless Targets
- 6.10. Move Of Markets To East Asia 2008, 2013, 2018
- 6.11. Market For Epc And Other Interrogators 2008-2018
- 6.12. Ultra Low Cost Rfid Labels - Market Size
- 6.13. Rfid Printed Directly Onto Products And Packaging - Market Size
- 6.14. Low Cost Active Rfid - Market Size
- 6.15. Radiation Tolerant Rfid - Market Size
- 6.16. Fault Tolerant Rfid - Market Size
- 6.17. Ultra Thin Low Cost Rfid - Market Size
- 6.18. Ubiquitous Sensor Networks - Market Size
- 6.19. Real Time Locating Systems (Rtls) - Market Size
7. Timelines For Printed And Chipless Rfid Market Penetration
- 7.1. Timelines For Human-Related And Product Tagging
- 7.2. Timelines For Developments In Second Generation Chipless Rfid
- 7.3. Timeline For Printed Rfid
- 7.4. Timeline For Printed Organic Electronics
- 7.5. Timeline For Direct Printing Of Chipless Rfid Onto Products And Packaging
8. Supplier And Developer Profiles
- 8.1. Rfsaw Usa
- 8.2. Ibm Usa
- 8.3. Acreo Sweden
- 8.4. M-Real Sweden
- 8.5. Vtt Technology Finland
- 8.6. Panipol Finland
- 8.7. Inksure
- 8.8. Vubiq
- 8.9. Polyic And Siemens Germany
- 8.10. Organicid Usa
- 8.11. 3m Usa
- 8.12. Xerox/ Parc Usa/ Canada
- 8.13. Plastic Logic Uk
- 8.14. Toppan Printing Japan
- 8.15. Dai Nippon Printing Japan
- 8.16. Kovio Usa
- Appendix 1: Idtechex Publications
- Appendix 2: Principles Of Operation Of First Generation Chipless Rfid
- Appendix 3 The Astrazeneca - Scientific Generics Success
- Appendix 4 Glossary