Australia Infrastructure Report Q3 2009

Publication Date	July 2009
Publisher	Business Monitor
Product Type	Report
Pages	82
ISBN Number	1752-5268
Product Code	BMI04067

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Summary

We now believe that real growth in Australia's construction industry will register a contraction of -1.2% in 2009, compared with our previous forecast (made last quarter) of -3.2%. In 2010, we now believe that the sector will undergo real growth of 0.3%, before accelerating to 1.8% real growth in 2011. This compares favourably with our earlier forecasts of -1.1% in 2010 and 0.9% in 2011. As such, the biggest upward revisions apply to 2009 and 2010, when the impact of the new infrastructure package is likely to be most pronounced.

Last quarter we highlighted upside and downside risks to our forecasts. On the upside, we underlined that our core scenario envisaged only a modest recovery of the global economy in 2010, and that if the recovery proved to be more pronounced that year, then privately generated construction activity in Australia should be boosted accordingly. That upside risk remains in place, even with our upwardly revised forecasts for 2010. Additionally, the impact of the newly unveiled budget - funded, as it is, largely by public money, rather than public private partnerships - may be even more pronounced than we are currently forecasting, particularly for 2010 and 2011.

However, on the downside, there is still the risk that the global economic downturn will last longer than we forecast. As such, significant downside risks for 2010 and 2011 remain in place.

Australia's rating in our Project Finance rankings has improved considerably over the last quarter. The country has moved up the rankings from sixth to third overall. Australia scores very well for the Design and Construction variable (with 71.7 out of 100). However, it registers a weak score in the long-term Commissioning and Operating phase of infrastructure assets (56.0 out of 100). This is due to the volatility of the Australian dollar, in a context where many countries in the region - including China, Malaysia, Japan and Hong Kong - operate fixed or highly managed exchange rates.

Content

Executive Summary
SWOT Analysis
Australia Infrastructure SWOT
Australia Political SWOT
Australia Economic SWOT
Australia Business Environment SWOT
Market Overview
Australia
Global Overview
Governments to The Rescue: The Global Surge in Infrastructure Spending
Major Infrastructure Developments and Key Projects
Transport Infrastructure Overview
New and Ongoing Projects
Airports
Ports
Roads
Rail
Energy and Utilities Infrastructure Overview
New and Ongoing Projects
Power Plants and Transmission Grids
Pipelines
Water Projects
Construction Overview
New and Ongoing Projects
Residential Construction
Commercial Construction
Industrial Construction
Tourism Construction
Major Projects
Industry Forecast Scenario
Business Environment
Asia Pacific Infrastructure Business Environment Ratings
Limits of Potential Returns
Risks to Realisation of Potential Returns
Foreign Direct Investment
Labour Force
Legal Framework
Tax Regime
Macroeconomic Outlook
Political Outlook
Company Monitor
WorleyParsons
Maunsell ANZA
Leighton Holdings
Country Snapshot: Australia Demographic Data
Section 1: Population
Section 2: Education and Healthcare
Section 3: Labour Market and Spending Power
BMI Forecast Modelling
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
Construction Industry
Sources
Business Environment Ratings
Ratings Overview
Project Finance Ratings Methodology
Design & Construction Phase
Historical Data & Forecasts
Commissioning and Operating Phase- Commercial Construction
Commissioning and Operating Phase - Energy and Utilities
Commissioning and Operating Phase -Transport
List of Tables
- Table: Infrastructure Stimulus Plans List
- Table: Major Infrastructure Projects - Transport
- Table: Australia Major Infrastructure Projects - Utilities
- Table: Australia Major Infrastructure Projects - Construction
- Table: Australia - Economic and Construction Data
- Table: Regional Infrastructure Business Environment Ratings
- Table: Design and Construction Rating
- Table: Commissioning and Operating Rating
- Table: Overall Project Finance Rating
- Table: Australia - Economic Activity
- Table: Education, 2002-2005
- Table: Vital Statistics
- Table: Employment Indicators, 2001-2006
- Table: Consumer Expenditure, 2000-2012 (US$)
- Table: Infrastructure Business Environment Indicators