Malaysia Freight Transport Report Q3 2009

According to a report in March, China Harbour Engineering Company was in negotiations with Malaysia's transport-to-construction group MMC to buy a minority stake in the Port of Tanjung Pelepas (PTP). The port was seeking investment in order to expand its infrastructure. Discussions had been taking place since the last quarter of 2008, and a final decision was expected imminently. PTP has been competing successfully to attract cargo business away from nearby rival the Port of Singapore. PTP offers favourable handling rates and tax-free logistics to international companies. However, industry observers believe that the port requires significant investment if it is to keep pace with wider economic development.

In this, our newly released Malaysia Freight Transport Report, we predict that in terms of freight carried, shipping traffic will grow by an average of 3.6% per year over the 2009-2013 period. The total number of containers handled at Malaysia's ports will grow at a stronger 5.9% per year. We now expect total freight carried across all modes, measured in mn tonnes-km (mntkm), to grow by an annual average of 3.6% over the 2009-2013 period. Total road freight turnover is expected to grow at an average annual rate of 3.5% over the period, and we also expect rail freight traffic to perform reasonably well, with annual growth averaging 3.3%. Air freight is forecast to be set back by a downturn in 2009 and 2010, but will nevertheless achieve a five-year average of 3.8% per annum. Pipeline throughput will expand by an average of 3.6%. Malaysia scores reasonably in our overall freight rating, at 51.7 out of a theoretical maximum of 100, having slipped a little because of a fall in its country risk rating and somewhat higher political uncertainty. It is nevertheless at the higher end of the spectrum in terms of expected freight transport growth and scores well as far as long-term economic risk, transport infrastructure growth and the regulatory and competitive environments are concerned.

For the 2009-2013 forecast period, we expect the transport and communications sector to continue outpacing the economy as a whole by a small margin. It will achieve average annual growth of 3.2%, versus 2.9% for overall GDP. The total value of the transport and communications sector will rise to US$24bn in nominal terms by 2013, representing 7.5% of Malaysia's GDP.