Malaysia Freight Transport Report Q4 2009

The BMI Q409 Malaysia Freight Transport Report predicts that total freight carried across all modes, measured in million-tonnes-km (mntkm), will grow by an annual average of 3.4% over the 2009-2013 period. Total road freight turnover is expected to grow at an average annual rate of 3.3% over the period, and we also expect rail freight traffic to perform reasonably well, with annual growth averaging 3.0%.

Shipping freight, which will contract in absolute terms during the recession of 2009, will nevertheless average a positive 3.9% per annum over the five years. Air freight is forecast to be set back by a downturn in 2009 and 2010, but will nevertheless achieve a five-year average of 3.6% per annum.

Pipeline throughput will expand by an average of 3.2%. Malaysia scores moderately in our overall freight rating, at 44.6 out of 100, having slipped a little because of a fall in its country risk rating and somewhat higher political uncertainty. It is nevertheless at the higher end of the spectrum in terms of expected freight transport growth and scores well in long-term economic risk, transport infrastructure growth and the regulatory and competitive environments.

For the 2009-2013 forecast period we expect the transport and communications (T&C) sector, measured in terms of the value of output, to continue outpacing the economy as a whole by a small margin. It will achieve average annual growth of 2.9%, versus 2.6% for overall GDP. The total value of the transport and communications sector will rise to US$23.6bn in nominal terms by 2013, representing 7.5% of Malaysia's GDP.

According to the Malaysian national news agency, Bernama, the Port of Tanjung Pelepas (PTP) was expecting to register throughput growth of 9% year-on-year (y-o-y) in 2009, up to 6.1mn twenty-foot equivalent units (TEUs), compared to 5.6mn TEUs in 2008. This was due to a recently signed agreement with French shipping company CMA CGM. Chairman of PTP Mohd Sidik Shaik Osman said that the port currently offers capacity to handle 8mn TEUs a year, expected to increase to 12mn TEUs within five years. PTP has been competing successfully to attract cargo business away from its nearby rival, Singapore. The port offers favourable handling rates and tax-free logistics to international companies.