Netherlands Freight Transport Report Q4 2009

According to a story in Port World in late July, the Port of Rotterdam registered a nearly 8% year-on-year (y-o-y) decline in ship traffic to 16,655 ships from January to June 2009 as compared with 18,223 ships in the corresponding period of 2008. The Dutch port recently reported a slump of more than 13% y-o-y in total cargo throughput in the same period. In terms of containers handled, the decline in H109 was 15%, to 4.6mn twenty-foot equivalent units (TEUs). The port's export and import volumes dropped by 4.6% yo- y and 16.6% y-o-y, respectively, to 54mn tonnes and 131mn tonnes in H109. Rotterdam is Europe's largest container port, but it faces growing competition from Hamburg and Antwerp. Industry observers say the throughput decline is mainly due to reduced ship bunkering activities at the port.

Overall, and bearing in mind the significant impact of the current recession, BMI concludes in the latest Netherlands Freight Transport Report that freight traffic across all modes will rise by an annual average of 0.4% in the 2009-2013 forecast period. This will be fractionally below the growth of the wider economy, and down from 3.5% in the preceding five years. Slower economic growth is the key driver of the slowdown in the freight sector. According to our latest estimates, transport and communications GDP rose by 2.6% in 2008, 0.7 of a percentage point ahead of GDP. The total value of transport and communications GDP will rise to US$71bn in nominal terms by 2013, representing 9.0% of the Netherlands' GDP. The transport and communications sector employed 819,000 people, or 6.1% of the labour force, in 2007. We see that figure staying virtually constant at around 817,000 by 2013.

Our overall forecast for freight carried in the Netherlands is for it to be broadly on a par with the wider economy based on a mature industry, good infrastructure, a slower economic growth rate, and the country's openness to foreign trade. We expect the best performing sector to be airfreight, which, with annual average growth of 0.9%, will come through another period of relative turbulence in the sector, caused by the European-wide recession. We believe Dutch aviation, and the Air France-KLM alliance in particular, will ride out the storm. It will be followed by rail freight, where we are forecasting growth of 0.6% per annum, with resilience coming from recent investments - in particular the opening of a new freight line to Germany. Pipeline freight will grow by 0.5% throughout the forecast period, as will road haulage. We think sea freight will be hardest hit by the current recession, with growth down to an average of 0.3%. Inland water transport will also experience low growth of 0.2% per annum.