Turkey Freight Transport Report Q3
2011

Turkey Freight Transport Report Q3 2011

Following a year in which BMI believes saw the full recovery, 2011 will signal further steady growth in all freight modes.

Total trade is projected to pick up with our Country Risk desk forecasting a y-o-y increase of 7.85% in 2011, following an estimated growth of 12.04% in 2010.

Road freight is to continue to dominate the sector and is projected to grow by 3.2% in 2011. The sector, according to our estimates, has made a prompt recovery from the downturn and enjoys the benefits of not having to make any decreases in road haulage like the ones pledged by the neighbouring EU. The construction of a new, potential hub port, Çandarli, part of a wider strategy in Turkey to develop the country's port sector, is on schedule, and the facility is planned to begin operations in 2013.

Headline Industry Data

• 2011 air freight tonnage is expected to grow by 7.7%;
• 2011 rail freight is forecast to grow by 4.7%;
• 2011 Port of Ambarli throughput is forecast to grow by 21%;
• 2011 road freight is forecast to grow by 3.2%;
• 2011 total real trade growth is forecast at 7.9%. Key Industry Trends

Hub Port On Schedule, But Faces Tough Competition

Construction of Çandarli Port is on schedule, and the facility is due to accept its first vessel in 2013. The port is intended to cater for Turkey's growing maritime trade and also to function as a hub port, offering connections to the Middle East and the Black Sea states. BMI notes that in this planned role the port will face stiff competition from the Greek port of Piraeus, which is the traditional hub in the region. Piraeus is undergoing something of a revival currently, with China ploughing money into the facility.

The Face Of Oil ShippingAbout To Be Changed

A planned Istanbul canal linking the Black Sea to the Marmara Sea could be a potential game changer for both the shipping and oil industries, offering an alternative to the major chokepoint of the Bosporus Strait. BMI questions, however, whether there is a need for both a canal offering VLCCs access to the Black Sea and a Samsun-Ceyhan pipeline, which was once feted as the alternative to the Bosphorus Strait for oil transport.

Risks to Outlook

BMI highlights freight modes exposed to the transport of containers as the forecast areas which have risk to the upside as it is these modes of transport which will benefit from the increase of container volumes on the back of a strengthening consumer base within Turkey as household purchasing power grows over the coming years.

We also note Turkey's strategic location as a possible gateway for trade into the Middle East and the Black Sea states. An upside risk to our forecasts for the freight transport sector comes in the form of the construction of Çandarli Port. The facility will be a major factor in driving the country's economic growth, and BMI also expects the port to develop a role as a hub.

• Executive Summary
• Headline Industry Data
• Key Industry Trends
• Risks to Outlook
• SWOT Analysis
• Turkey Freight Transport SWOT
• Turkey Political SWOT
• Turkey Economic SWOT
• Turkey Business Environment SWOT
• Industry Trends and Developments
• Maritime
• Key Views
• Market Overview
• Multimodal
• Infrastructure
• Industry Forecast
• Air
  • Table: Air Freight,
• Maritime
  • Table: Maritime Freight - Throughput, 2008-2015 ('000 tonnes)
• Rail
  • Table: Rail Freight,
• Road
  • Table: Road Freight,
• Trade
  • Table: Trade Overview,
  • Table: Key Trade Indicators,
  • Table: Turkey's Main Import Partners, 2002-2009 (US$mn)
  • Table: Turkey's Main Export Partners, 2002-2009 (US$mn)
• Macroeconomic Outlook
• Turkey - Economic Activity
• Global Oil Products Price Outlook
  • Table: Oil Product Price Assumptions, Q410-Q411 (US$/bbl)
  • Table: Oil Product Price Data And Forecasts, 2008-2015 (US$/bbl)
• Political Outlook
• Company Profiles
• Turkish Cargo
• Turkon Line
• Turkish State Railways (TCDD) Freight
• BMI Methodology
• How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
• Transport Industry
• Sources