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United Kingdom Freight Transport Report
2013
- Product Code:BMI07565
- Publication Date:January 2013
- Publisher:Business Monitor
- Product Type: Report
- Pages:66
United Kingdom Freight Transport Report 2013
BMI View In terms of freight mode, the picture is mixed for 2013 as the UK contends with circling global economic headwinds, particularly in the eurozone where the country is heavily reliant on trade
Whereas rail freight is expected to perform relatively well in 2012 and over the forecast period to 2017, the road freight sector is set for a poor 12 months
In light of the unfolding global economic slowdown, we have been stressing in our monthly Global Macro Updates that a fresh round of monetary and fiscal stimulus is in the offing
The US Federal Reserve has pulled the trigger on additional quantitative easing following the annual Jackson Hole symposium, with the central bank now committed to an open-ended programme of monthly mortgage backed security purchases
The European Central Bank has also upped the ante by pledging to buy unlimited amounts of government debt in the eurozone periphery, conditional on member states first signing up to a macroeconomic structural adjustment programme
We expect the Bank of England to follow suit by raising the ceiling of the asset purchase programme, while also exploring new initiatives to boost credit flow to the economy (we see scope for private sector asset purchases and even direct lending to the corporate sector over the medium term)
This will provide much needed short-term relief for the UK economy
Headline Industry Data
UK air freight volume to grow by 1.82% to 2.40mnt in 2013, following a 2.45% contraction in 2012
Tonnage handled at Port of Grimsby and Immingham will grow by 3.30% in 2013 to 60.45mnt, after 2.31% growth the preceding year
- 2013 tonnage growth at the Port of London will be 1.24% to 49.87mnt
- Rail freight will grow by 4.20% to 109.24mnt, slightly below the 4.40% growth in 2012
- Road haulage will be one of the slowest growing transport modes in 2013, rising 1.27% to 1.79bnt
- The real value of UK foreign trade will expand by 6.0% in 2013
Key Industry Trends Hauliers Affected By New Plans A raft of new laws came into force during 2012, affecting hauliers
The UK Freight Transport Association (FTA) issued a reminder to road hauliers of its new Low Emission Zone (LEZ) standards for London, effective from January 3 2012, reported the Handy Shipping Guide
Also, in September 2012, the Road Haulage Association (RHA) in the UK has granted approval to the government's plan regarding introducing a charging system for foreign truckers using UK roads
Baltic Interest Continues To Increase British rail freight operator Freightliner is reported to be interested in expanding into Latvia's rail freight sector
We believe that rail freight operators' interest in the Baltic States and Latvia is understandable and forms part of our larger bullish outlook for freight and shipping in the Baltic Sea region
Heathrow To Slip Down Cargo Rankings The UK's busiest airport, Heathrow, was in the news throughout June 2012
BMI believes that the airport will face increasingly tough competition for its cargo-handling business in the coming years from both European competitors and airport facilities in the Middle East
The decision not to proceed with plans for a third runway leaves the facility with little room for expansion, and strikes planned by cargo handlers for June 2012 and July 2012 will only exacerbate the issue
Key Risks To Outlook The UK government has cancelled the West Coast rail franchise awarded to UK-based transport company, FirstGroup, according to The Telegraph in October 2012
UK firm, Virgin Trains, lost the franchise to FirstGroup and challenged the process that Transport Secretary Patrick McLoughlin now says contained significant flaws
The cancellation vindicates Virgin Rail's protest and may end up costing taxpayers around GBP40mn (US$64.5mn)
Also in the rail freight sphere, the UK's Department of Transport is planning to invest an additional GBP200mn (US$312.7mn) in the Strategic Rail Network
The investment is aimed at creating core rail routes that will allow the operation of longer, quicker and more regular freight trains
It also plans to electrify the Great Western and Midland Main Lines, significantly reducing carbon emissions
In the air freight sphere, BAA, the operator of five British airports, reported a 2.4% year-on-year (y-o-y) drop in freight traffic across its airports in the UK during May 2012, including a 3.8% decline at Heathrow Airport
CEO Colin Matthews said the fall in cargo volumes is a reflection of the continued eurozone crisis
Upside risk presents itself in the form of a new multi-billion pound London road contract
Contractors CVU, Ringway Jacobs, Conway Aecom JV and EnterpriseMouchel have won four new London-based road contracts, Roadtraffic-Technology reports
The contracts, worth close to GBP2.6bn (US$4.13bn), include road maintenance, design and construction of new projects, lighting, winter maintenance and safety inspections
Each framework will run from April 2013 through to the end of March 2021.
- BMI Industry View
- SWOT Analysis
- United Kingdom Freight Transport Industry SWOT
- United Kingdom Political SWOT
- United Kingdom Economic SWOT
- United Kingdom Business Environment SWOT
- Industry Trends And Developments
- Multimodal/Logistics
- Road
- Rail
- Air
- Maritime
- Market Overview
- Industry Forecast
- Macroeconomic Outlook
- Air Freight
- Table: Air Freight, 2010-2017
- Maritime Freight
- Table: Maritime Freight, 2010-2017
- Rail Freight
- Table: Rail Freight, 2010-2017
- Road Freight
- Table: Road Freight, 2010-2017
- Trade
- Table: Trade Overview, 2010-2017
- Table: Key Trade Indicators, 2010-2017
- Table: The UK's Main Export Partners (US$mn), 2002-2009
- Table: The UK's Main Import Partners (US$mn), 2002-2009
- Global Oil Products Price Outlook
- Table: BMI's Refined Products Forecasts, 2010-2016
- Table: Middle East Outperforms In Terms of Passenger Growth
- Political Outlook
- Domestic Politics
- Long-Term Political Outlook
- Table:
- Macroeconomic Outlook
- Table: United Kingdom - Economic Activity, 2011-2016
- Company Profiles
- Freightliner
- Virgin Atlantic Cargo (VAC)
- BA World Cargo
- Demographic Outlook
- Table: The United Kingdom's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
- Table: The United Kingdom's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
- Table: The United Kingdom's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
- Table: The United Kingdom's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
- BMI Methodology
- How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
- Transport Industry
- Sources
